yeah there's no chance pache would put up 3 WAR. i don't think he'd even sniff 2 WAR. he may not even get 1. his offense would be brutal right now.
The inevitable Inciarte trade
- Thread starter Slippyjms
- Start date
yeah there's no chance pache would put up 3 WAR. i don't think he'd even sniff 2 WAR. he may not even get 1. his offense would be brutal right now.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I wouldn’t be shocked if Pache was close to as good as Ender. But why replace something you have with the exact same model and start his clock and stunt his development. Doesn’t make sense when Ender is still a positive player.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yeah. I'm high on Pache but he likely won't be ready for a year or year and a half. He still needs to marinate in the high minors. Not everyone can zip through the minors at warp speed like Acuna and arrive in the majors without missing a beat.
i would be absolutely shocked if pache could put up a 3 WAR season. there's probably a lower than 1% chance of that right now.
i'd argue acuña missed a beat. but then quickly caught up to it...and then made it his own beat in a stunningly short amount of time.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Acuna didn't miss a beat. He was just pouting.
For one, it's unlikely Pache or anyone else is able to be a 2-3 WAR player right now or likely even next season.
Secondly, if we have concerns about Ender declining, so will every other team. So the ability to trade Ender becomes pretty hard, as no one wants to pay 10 million for a 4th OFer.
Your entire argument is a contradiction.
Southcack77
Well-known member
This is exactly why I was not very excited when they extended him, despite folks saying it made him "even more valuable." I'd have preferred that they didn't extend him and let him hit FA as scheduled.
I do think if he recovers to past level of offense and his defense holds then he still can be traded this offseason or at the deadline if the Braves fall out. I don't really see much chance the Braves would move him in season, because he has present value. Unless it was part of a bigger move.
Southcack77
Well-known member
3 wins requires someone like Pache to be a 10% below average hitter. That's harder than it sounds, but it's not impossible.
Also, the Braves have Acuna as a possibility in CF, which opens up all the options as far as FA and trade. It would be a redeployment of resources and perhaps there are many stopgaps that would let you get to the next guy without taking on the advancing decline of a below average hitter whose value is mostly his first steps.
of course it's not impossible. it's just extremely, overwhelmingly unlikely. he wasn't even close to that.. in AA last year.
if you move Ronald to CF, find a 3 WAR LF "easily." bonus if you find one *within the system*.
that statement was just stupid.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The extension has some decline priced in. It buys out what would have been his first free agent season (2021) at 8M which is the price for a 1 win player. So if Ender is a 2 wins player in 2021 the extension is a bargain. The second free agent season bought out (2022 when he will be 31) is even better since it is an option at 9M. We can not exercise it if any decline is much steeper than appears likely. It was pretty much a no brainer of a deal from the club's perspective.
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Southcack77
Well-known member
Inciarte had a 79 wRC+ in AA as a 19 year old, in only 109 PA. I'm not sure its "overwhelmingly unlikely" he could put up a 90 wRC+ in the majors as a 21 year old.
I also somewhat doubt that Inciarte will be a 2.9 win player this year or next. But even if you do believe that, there are 32 guys who put up 2.8 wins or more last season. I don't find it exceedingly unlikely the Braves could acquire someone who could do that.
Southcack77
Well-known member
And yet, I'm not particularly thrilled by the prospect of paying Inciarte 8.7 million (plus 1m buyout) in 2021. Paying a 1 WAR player fair market value to be a 1 WAR player isn't a good thing.
with a .347 BABIP, a 25.7% k-rate, and a 4.6% BB rate. he would get torn to shreds in the major leagues.
i'm not sure what 21 year old pache has to do with this. the post i'm citing mentioned replacing ender *today* with pache, since "Pache could arguably replace his defense TODAY, so even if his bat doesn't develop further are you really losing much if you already believe you're only paying for Ender to play defense and hit 7th or 8th?"
yes. you are losing a lot. that's the answer.
and that ender is "easily replaceable from within." neither of these things are remotely true. so your point of going out there and trying to trade assets for a 2.8-win guy is moot since this specifically stated "easily from WITHIN."
if pache were inserted into the lineup *today* he would be an awful hitter. however little ender has given you on offense the last couple of years, pache would be *much worse* than that right now. of course pache can develop further and improve as a hitter. that has literally nothing to do with what i said, tho, so i'm not sure where that point is going.
it's still very unlikely pache will be able to put up 90 wRC+ by next year tho. like there's almost no shot based on what we've seen.
it also isn't a bad thing. and if he can be more than a 1-WAR player? then what? it's far from a bad deal no matter how you spin it.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
All of these deals involve some risk to the club. But most of the time they work out in the club's favor. So the team should do them and not let the occasional one that doesn't work out deter them.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
he looks FINNISH if you ask me
and it's not like a deal like this is some kind of albatross if it doesn't work out.