The Reverse Pennant Chase

Mets win.

If we win tomorrow, we pick 8th.

If we lose, we pass the Mets and/or Padres for a higher pick only if they win.
 
As of games through 9/30:

1.) Giants (63-98, .391)
2.) Tigers (64-97, .398)
3.) Phillies (65-96, .404)
T4.) White Sox (67-94, .416)
T4.) Reds (67-94, .416)
6.) Mutts (70-91, .435)
T7.) Braves (71-90, .441)
T7.) Padres (71-90, .441)
T9.) Pirates (74-87, .460)
T9.) Athletics (74-87, .460)
T11.) Blue Jays (75-86, .466)
T11.) Orioles (75-86, .466)
13.) Marlins (77-84, .478)
T14.) Rangers (78-83, .484)
T14.) Mariners (78-83, .484)
T16.) Rays (79-82, .491)
T16.) Angels (79-82, .491)
18.) Royals (80-81, .497)
 
Sorry to everyone who is like "never root for a loss", but I'll be decently happy with a loss today if our young guys play well. Jumping up two spots would be pretty nice, especially with one being a division rival.
 
I'm rooting for young players to do well. If it comes with a loss, so be it.

Going from 8th to 6th and a higher draft pool potentially isnt a bad thing.
 
Fried pitched well then we blew the lead, but the Mets are not doing their part. Actually we did a good job of losing while our young players played well down the stretch. Albies, Newk, and Gohard look like they might be among our best players next year. Dansby will work his butt off this offseason.
 
From Baseball America's Ben Badler:

The Tigers have the first pick in the 2018 draft. They went 11-34 in their final 45 games, jumping over seven other teams. Nicely done.

(According to another post, Sandoval's walkoff homer costs the Giants the No. 1 pick!)
 
Oddly, the Braves have never had the eighth overall pick before.

Not a great list of No. 8s panning out: Francisco Lindor (2011) the best recently; before that, have to go back to 1995 (Todd Helton) for a real keeper. Jim Abbott (1988) was one also.
 
The 8th pick it is. I'm interested in the question of whether HS pitchers, HS hitters, college pitcher or college hitters on average provide the most value in this part of the draft. To generate a decent sample I'm going to look at picks 6-10 in the last 8 drafts (2010-2017). Lets start with HS pitchers.

They were: Karsten Williams (did not sign), Archie Bradley, Max Fried, Trey Ball, Phil Bickford (DNS), Braxton Garrett, Matt Manning

The HS hitters were: Delino DeShields, Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Austin Meadows, David Dahl, Alex Jackson, Cornelius Randolph, Austin Beck, Jordan Adell

The college pitchers were: Barrett Loux (DNS), Matt Harvey, Mark Appel (DNS), Andrew Heaney, Aaron Nola, Kyle Freeland, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Jay, Carson Fulmer, AJ Puk, Carl Quantrill

The college hitters were: Michael Choice, Anthony Rendon, Corey Spangenberg, Colin Moran, Hunter Dozier, Michael Conforto, Andrew Benitendi, Ian Happ, Zach Collins, Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, Keston Hiura

Which group provided the best value? Interesting that HS pitchers are a bit underrepresented in this part of the draft. A significant percentage of busts in each group.
 
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