The Reverse Pennant Chase

Hudson2 said:
The Hs hitters look pretty good and the list overall isn't bad at all.
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HS pitchers look weak as a group (partly due to injuries and attrition but that goes with the territory) and there are fewer of them that get taken in this part of the draft. Those are the two things that stand out more than anything else.

Lindor is the outstanding player in the entire group. There are two things I would note about him. One is he was one of the youngest players in his draft (at 17 and a half). That's something that still seems to be not fully taken into account by teams. We did well recently with two 17 year olds (Allard and Soroka). The other thing about Lindor was he had multiple paths to success. Both the glove and bat had a lot of projection. As it turns out he fulfilled those projections on both scores. There were some very good players taken ahead of him, but I think even without the benefit of hindsight he was the high upside pick in that draft. Taken #8 in 2011. A prospect like him has no business dropping that low. Let's hope something like that happens to us at #8 in 2018.
 
nsacpi said:
HS pitchers look weak as a group (partly due to injuries and attrition but that goes with the territory) and there are fewer of them that get taken in this part of the draft. Those are the two things that stand out more than anything else.

Lindor is the outstanding player in the entire group. There are two things I would note about him. One is he was one of the youngest players in his draft (at 17 and a half). That's something that still seems to be not fully taken into account by teams. We did well recently with two 17 year olds (Allard and Soroka). The other thing about Lindor was he had multiple paths to success. Both the glove and bat had a lot of projection. As it turns out he fulfilled those projections on both scores. There were some very good players taken ahead of him, but I think even without the benefit of hindsight he was the high upside pick in that draft. Taken #8 in 2011. A prospect like him has no business dropping that low. Let's hope something like that happens to us at #8 in 2018.
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Should be more than a little interesting really. As it stands now, there are really only 5 players in the current BA Top 50s that probably can't fall to us - Ethan Hankins, Brice Turang, Brady Singer, Jarred Kelenic, and Nander De Sedas. Since we really have nowhere for Nick Madrigal to play and the other top college arms - Shane McClanahan, Casey Mize, and Ryan Rolison - don't appear to be really fast movers like Wright does, that probably narrows down the list at the top pretty substantially. After watching Kemp and Adams in LF for over a year now, I'm guessing Seth Beer, Alec Bohm, and Luken Baker have slipped downward quite a bit and aren't really on our radar unless they happen to be there in the 2nd Round - I just don't see this current management group drafting a bat-only guy early. That really isn't bad since this class actually offers several interesting players where we have holes - even though you're obviously not drafting based on "need". I'm going to be really interested in following Greyson Jenista, Griffin Conine, Tristan Pompey, Travis Swaggerty, Steele Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Will Banfield. I think our pick likely comes from that group, and is more than likely one of the college OFs - particularly if they think Jenista really can handle LF or Conine has another strong spring - unless Gorman or Banfield really show them something.

Of course if Kumar Rocker or Matthew Liberatore have strong springs all bets are off.
 
clvclv said:
Should be more than a little interesting really. As it stands now, there are really only 5 players in the current BA Top 50s that probably can't fall to us - Ethan Hankins, Brice Turang, Brady Singer, Jarred Kelenic, and Nander De Sedas. Since we really have nowhere for Nick Madrigal to play and the other top college arms - Shane McClanahan, Casey Mize, and Ryan Rolison - don't appear to be really fast movers like Wright does, that probably narrows down the list at the top pretty substantially. After watching Kemp and Adams in LF for over a year now, I'm guessing Seth Beer, Alec Bohm, and Luken Baker have slipped downward quite a bit and aren't really on our radar unless they happen to be there in the 2nd Round - I just don't see this current management group drafting a bat-only guy early. That really isn't bad since this class actually offers several interesting players where we have holes - even though you're obviously not drafting based on "need". I'm going to be really interested in following Greyson Jenista, Griffin Conine, Tristan Pompey, Travis Swaggerty, Steele Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Will Banfield. I think our pick likely comes from that group, and is more than likely one of the college OFs - particularly if they think Jenista really can handle LF or Conine has another strong spring - unless Gorman or Banfield really show them something.

Of course if Kumar Rocker or Matthew Liberatore have strong springs all bets are off.
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I don't think we will be worrying about which guy can play where and how quickly they will move up. The idea should really be to pick the player with the most upside. The rest will sort itself out. As I recall a fellow named Betts was "blocked" by a fellow named Pedroia on some other team. But they found a way to get both into the lineup.
 
nsacpi said:
I don't think we will be worrying about which guy can play where and how quickly they will move up. The idea should really be to pick the player with the most upside. The rest will sort itself out. As I recall a fellow named Betts was "blocked" by a fellow named Pedroia on some other team. But they found a way to get both into the lineup.
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Looking at the MLB draft as a way of filling MLB roster holes is not a real good idea. Just draft who you think is good and if you are right it will work itself out.
 
nsacpi said:
I don't think we will be worrying about which guy can play where and how quickly they will move up. The idea should really be to pick the player with the most upside. The rest will sort itself out. As I recall a fellow named Betts was "blocked" by a fellow named Pedroia on some other team. But they found a way to get both into the lineup.
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The reason I'm assuming the college OF group is the main focus isn't so much about the potential openings as much as it is about creating trade flexibility. With another year of Kemp (as of now, anyway), you have to figure not only will Ender's value ever be higher, but you can somewhat afford to move him to keep adding more talent without taking a huge step backward. There's little doubt IMO that we're going to see Acuna somewhere in the OF on Opening Day 2018. As much as I love Ender, I'd have a tough time arguing that a 1-2 punch of Albies and Acuna at the top isn't eventually as good offensively as Ender and Albies is. Of course that's going to hurt you defensively - the jury is still out for me on how much since no one's really provided any reports that Acuna isn't at least slightly above-average in CF - but if he brings the kind of return haul I think he could and you have another OF who is fairly close to ready, it allows you to really focus on what you want if you're willing to move him.

I'm one who was really disappointed in Dustin Peterson's lack of progress this season - I honestly thought getting out of Mississippi would've really provided an uptick in his numbers across the board, and he took a pretty big step back in my eyes. He's still plenty young, and it's obviously way too early to give up on him, but I don't want him falling into the category I'm beginning to put Davidson in - the kids who they keep being aggressive with because of a complete lack of other corner OF options in the system unless they move people from other positions (Acuna, Riley, Demeritte, Cumberland).
 
Southcack77 said:
Looking at the MLB draft as a way of filling MLB roster holes is not a real good idea. Just draft who you think is good and if you are right it will work itself out.
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As likely the most obnoxious "pitching, pitching, pitching" guy around, I'm likely the least in need of a scolding for taking kids who might be "blocked". LOL.
 
I don't think Madrigal and Turang will drop to us but in my mind those are the two players at this point that are Lindor-like in the sense of having multiple paths to success. The glove and bat both have very high projections. That makes them the highest ceiling players at this point. Could change over the next year. But that's how I see it right now. If a player like that is available at the #8 spot we should consider ourselves lucky.
 
If Kyle Wright is available at 5 as the slam dunk best player available, you draft him. Period.

If the choice is between a HS pitcher and an equally rated college OFer, you can start to use organizational need in the decision making process.

By pick 8 the talent available should be so close that 2-3 guys are essentially equal. I hope the Braves lean towards the college OFer of one is in that group of equal players.
 
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nsacpi said:
I don't think Madrigal and Turang will drop to us but in my mind those are the two players at this point that are Lindor-like in the sense of having multiple paths to success. The glove and bat both have very high projections. That makes them the highest ceiling players at this point. Could change over the next year. But that's how I see it right now. If a player like that is available at the #8 spot we should consider ourselves lucky.
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That's really the only reason my list is a little longer - I could possibly see Madrigal slipping as far as #8, but don't think the bat has quite enough pop in the event we eventually wanted to move him to a corner. The "holes" I mentioned are really more system-wide than on the big club's roster. Other than Riley at 3B - IF the glove holds up and you don't eventually have to move him - we really don't have any corner options that profile as even average MLB players. At some point I think they simply have to address that instead of continuing to draft CF after CF and MI after MI. It sure would be nice to have 25% of the problem that Oakland's going to have in finding ABs for Olson, Chapman, Healy, and Nunez.
 
Enscheff said:
If Kyle Wright is available at 5 as the slam dunk best player available, you draft him. Period.

If the choice is between a HS pitcher and an equally rated college OFer, you can start to use organizational need in the decision making process.

By pick 8 the talent available should be so close that 2-3 guys are essentially equal. I hope the Braves lean towards the college OFer of one is in that group of equal players.
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Yeah, by pick 8 there are usually 2-3 that are close. But once in a great while there is a Lindor-like player at 8. You need other teams drafting ahead to make multiple mistakes (Bubba Starling cough Bubba Starling) for that to happen.
 
Seth Beer's plummet is really bizarre to me. I can't find that he played in the Cape this summer, and he's just been such a ridiculous hitter so far in college. I get that he's limited defensively and most project him as a 1B in the pros, but his bat is plenty good enough to warrant an early selection on it alone, is it not?

Are there some kind of serious makeup concerns with him?
 
Good news for the Braves at 8. They should have a few guys to choose from that will crack the Top 100 immediately.

Waltharius
12:26 I heard that 2018 draft will be comparable to 2011 draft with the amount of talent. I know it's early but how many players do you think have a chance to crack the top 100 at this moment?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29 I think next year's draft is DEEP, like you might get a 2nd round guy in the back of the 3rd round and a 3rd round guy in the 5th. Typically a draft has 6-10 guys who crack the top 100, I think this year might be more like 8-12.
 
Enscheff said:
Good news for the Braves at 8. They should have a few guys to choose from that will crack the Top 100 immediately.

Waltharius
12:26 I heard that 2018 draft will be comparable to 2011 draft with the amount of talent. I know it's early but how many players do you think have a chance to crack the top 100 at this moment?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29 I think next year's draft is DEEP, like you might get a 2nd round guy in the back of the 3rd round and a 3rd round guy in the 5th. Typically a draft has 6-10 guys who crack the top 100, I think this year might be more like 8-12.
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Sounds like a bad draft to get docked a draft pick or two.
 
Six outs away from a World Series, bet their fans are ashamed the Astros didn't have honor when they tanked those few seasons...

So glad the Braves continue to win meaningless games while out of playoff contention every year in September, wouldn't want to actually get a chance to draft superstars. Honor.
 
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