There’s a Fckn Game Today, People

This staff could really use some good RH openers. Seems like a guy like Jackson for example could role 2 innings to start then toss Drew in for 5 easily. That way the 3rd time through for Drew starts at position 7-8-9. Then another guy for tucker. Fried is good enough to true start.

Morton and Anderson could also employ a lefty opener.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
This staff could really use some good RH openers. Seems like a guy like Jackson for example could role 2 innings to start then toss Drew in for 5 easily. That way the 3rd time through for Drew starts at position 7-8-9. Then another guy for tucker. Fried is good enough to true start.

Morton and Anderson could also employ a lefty opener.
Click to expand...

Agree. Wright has not been good this year. But I could see him in that role. He seems to have issues the second time through. Let him go 2 innings to start the game. Touki as well if he's ever healthy again. Wilson fits this role for me.

We have the exact guys you'd want for such a system and there seems to be ZERO chatter/interest in that from the organization.

I think if we were the Rays we would have been there last year.
 
msstate7 said:
I can live with letting smyly face a lineup a 3rd time if it doesn't cost us a PH opportunity, and if snit has the pen ready going into the inning. Snit keeps throwing away PH opportunities, and then doesn't have the pen ready
Click to expand...

This is a good summary of the issue. Extending the SP who is still under 100 pitches is one thing, but punting a PA in a close game to do it compounds the error. At that point it becomes 2 errors rolled up in one decision, and dings the team twice.

The fact Snit keeps doing it, and keeps getting less than 1 additional inning out of the SP, which forces him to go to the BP in that inning anyways....it's mind boggling that it can't sink into his thick dinosaur skull yet. What part of the brain is missing that allows him to keep making the same mistake over and over?
 
50PoundHead said:
I realize that I have been unduly harsh on Smyly (and on Anthopoulos for signing him in the first place), but the question really boils down to how long can you keep Smyly in at all? Is he an opener? He so rarely has a clean inning which rapidly elevates his pitch count. He's a Brave and he's going to have to play a role, but I honestly don't know what that is at this point.
Click to expand...

The 3TTO penalty is a combination of pitcher fatigue and batter familiarity. The timing of any pitching change is also affected by the leverage of the current game scenario. So these decisions are a little nuanced, but not so nuanced that there's a ton of grey area.

If Smyly is sitting at 70 pitches and the top of the order comes up in a close game, and he has the platoon advantage, let him face some of those batters.

If Smyly is sitting at 80 pitches and the top of the lineup comes up in a close game, and he doesn't have the platoon advantage, do not let him continue.

If Smyly is sitting at 80 pitches with a 4 runs lead, extend him a bit in this lower leverage spot.

If Smyly's spot is due to bat, look ahead and see if he should be pitching another 1+ innings. If not, use a PHer to avoid punting the PA. This ongoing disaster of letting the pitcher bat and then only getting 1-2 outs from him in the next half inning has to stop...it is dinging both the offense and defense with a single poor decision, and it's happening over and over and over.

Snit's idea that he has to rest the BP in case he has to use them in future games is the root of the issue. He should be trying to win the close games that are happening NOW because those are guaranteed winnable games. The close game tomorrow is not guaranteed. Last night was an excellent example when he overextended Smyly, and then burned Smith with a 4 run lead. That single game showed Snit has no idea about leverage in terms of BP usage.
 
Last edited:
Enscheff said:
This is a good summary of the issue. Extending the SP who is still under 100 pitches is one thing, but punting a PA in a close game to do it compounds the error. At that point it becomes 2 errors rolled up in one decision, and dings the team twice.

The fact Snit keeps doing it, and keeps getting less than 1 additional inning out of the SP, which forces him to go to the BP in that inning anyways....it's mind boggling that it can't sink into his thick dinosaur skull yet. What part of the brain is missing that allows him to keep making the same mistake over and over?
Click to expand...

In reality, Smyly will not start in the playoffs. He will come out of the bullpen. If he can adjust…should do very well. Hopefully he can make enough impact to justify the money spent.
 
thewupk said:
Two times through the order max which usually equals about 4 innings or so.

To possibly extend that you can employ an opener when he's facing a team like the Nats who have horrible 2nd half of the lineup hitters. By the time he's getting to the third time through the lineup (for him) it's going to be against someone like Bell instead of staring down Turner, Soto, and Zimmerman.

It's not perfect but little things like that do add up over the course of a game and a season.
Click to expand...

This is the most important point to realize.

The choice to leave Smyly in didn't "cost them the game". Smyly giving up a hit or run doesn't "prove" he should have been pulled, just like him completing the inning doesn't "prove" he should have been left in. Bringing in a BP arm is only going to be like 10% (totally made up number) better than leaving Smyly in the game.

The concept is that if the manager makes the optimal move that's 10% better than the other move, and he makes that optimal move every single time, it will add to 1 less base runner per week. That 1 less base runner per week will lead to 1 less run allowed per month. That 1 less run allowed per month will lead to 1 extra win per year. And that's a free win that cost the team nothing in terms of salary or roster space.

Then apply the optimal strategy in every decision that's made, and after doing it in 5-10 areas of the game, the team has picked up several more wins...for free. This is exactly what the Rays, As and Dodgers do, and is why they win so often. In the case of the Rays and As, it's how they perform like a team with 3x the payroll, despite turning over players all the time and using guys nobody has ever heard of.
 
Enscheff said:
Last night was an excellent example when he overextended Smyly, and then burned Smith with a 4 run lead. That single game showed Snit has no idea about leverage in terms of BP usage.
Click to expand...

Can't wait to see Tomlin pitch the 8th in a tie game tonight because of his continued ineptitude.
 
TheBravos said:
I kept telling everyone that given time…Riley has adjusted to every level and succeeded. Didn’t think he would do quite this well, but I’ll take it!!
Click to expand...

Riley is currently rocking a .405 BABIP, so a good bit of that .931 OPS is a mirage. However, his improvement in these plate discipline rates are very real:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/a...tArray=&start=2019&end=2021&rtype=mult&gt1=15

He is currently hitting like a legit .265/.345/.501 (.846 OPS) hitter.

For reference, peak Jake Lamb was a .840 OPS guy, and is who I've comped Riley to for years. I also think he will decline very similarly to Jake Lamb, but hopefully I'm wrong about that.
 
Enscheff said:
Riley is currently rocking a .405 BABIP, so a good bit of that .931 OPS is a mirage. However, his improvement in these plate discipline rates are very real:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/a...tatArray=&start=2019&end=2021&rtype=mult>1=15

He is currently hitting like a legit .265/.345/.501 (.846 OPS) hitter.

For reference, peak Jake Lamb was a .840 OPS guy, and is who I've comped Riley to for years. I also think he will decline very similarly to Jake Lamb, but hopefully I'm wrong about that.
Click to expand...

What's a realistic BABIP expectation for a guy with his batted ball profile?
 
TheBravos said:
In reality, Smyly will not start in the playoffs. He will come out of the bullpen. If he can adjust…should do very well. Hopefully he can make enough impact to justify the money spent.
Click to expand...

Playoffs??? PLAYOFFS? You kiddin' me? PLAYOFFS? I just hope we can win a game! Playoffs?
 
GovClintonTyree said:
What's a realistic BABIP expectation for a guy with his batted ball profile?
Click to expand...

I haven't seen a place reporting an xBABIP, but his xBA this year based on the type of contact he made is .265. All the projection systems project his BABIP at .310-.320. His career BABIP over 700+ PAs is .323.

All that seems reasonable for a guy who hits the ball hard, has average speed, and isn't an extreme pull hitter.
 
No way you give Riley an extension on this production until he does it for another 500 PA.

I’m one of his biggest fans as I still don’t think THIS is real.
 
PAs like the two-strike double off Nola last night just feel different for him these days. But as others have said, as much as I want to believe he has turned a corner for good, you wouldn't want to extend him based on the past 40 games. We've seen hot streaks from him before that have turned out to be a flash in the pan.

It would be nice to see a kind of ho hum but consistent summer from him.
 
thethe said:
No way you give Riley an extension on this production until he does it for another 500 PA.

I’m one of his biggest fans as I still don’t think THIS is real.
Click to expand...

No, of course not. But he is a good player and another year will give you more data points and confidence.

What is occuring to me is, he's a smart player. I listened to his 20 minute hitting conversation with DeRo and it was pretty clear he's got a plan and he's executing it better and better, and knows what helps him and what to leave behind. Seems to be a very good student.
 
Enscheff said:
I haven't seen a place reporting an xBABIP, but his xBA this year based on the type of contact he made is .265. All the projection systems project his BABIP at .310-.320. His career BABIP over 700+ PAs is .323.

All that seems reasonable for a guy who hits the ball hard, has average speed, and isn't an extreme pull hitter.
Click to expand...

We can go on BaseballSavant and filter xBA on all out/hits, then remove HRs and Ks to get xBABIP based on batted ball velo and launch angle (but not taking into account direction). Here is every Braves hitter with 50+ PAs actual BABIP vs xBABIP:


1 Riley, Austin .405 .355
2 Heredia, Guillermo .364 .356
3 Contreras, William .300 .371
4 Acuña Jr., Ronald .293 .337
5 Swanson, Dansby .282 .331
6 Albies, Ozzie .269 .321
7 d'Arnaud, Travis .262 .328
8 Adrianza, Ehire .250 .326
9 Ozuna, Marcell .244 .326
10 Freeman, Freddie .227 .344

That .355 xBABIP for Riley means he may not be due for as much regression as we think. It's only 121 balls in play though, and up to this point his xBABIP was in the .280s in previous seasons, so keep in mind the small sample size nature of these values.

No surprise to see Freeman getting absolutely hosed in BABIP though. That .344 value is right in line with his .337 career mark. The extent of his poor batted ball luck is truly remarkable. Maybe it will scare away the dumb teams likely to give him a stupid contract offer, and AA can sign him for reasonable money. He isn't declining at all right now, even though his results seems to indicate he is.

We also see pretty much every Braves hitter getting screwed on BABIP luck...but we already knew that about this offense so far in 2021.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top