32 years old is still 32 years old. Anyone older than 30 can tell you your body doesn't react the same.
Today's lineup suggestion - All About Gattis!
- Thread starter AerchAngel
- Start date
32 years old is still 32 years old. Anyone older than 30 can tell you your body doesn't react the same.
I'm not disagreeing with that but you can keep yourself in great shape and he is in a better spot than other catchers at his age because of the decreased aggregate workload. I'm not saying Gattis will be catching into his late 30's but I'm not worried about Gattis catching in his early 30's at all.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
This is Gattis' age 27 season. He will hit free agency after his age 31 season. I'm not too concerned about what happens after that. But physically he should be able to be a productive catcher through his age 31 season.
He has 25 home runs in 391 career at bats. This year I think Fredi wants to be conservative with his workload because it is his first major league season as the starting catcher and he had minor knee surgery in the off-season. In a normal year he can expect to get about 500 ABs. This year, he'll probably get about 450. I think in a normal 500 AB season, he'll have 30-35 home runs. Some more, some less.
He has 25 home runs in 391 career at bats. This year I think Fredi wants to be conservative with his workload because it is his first major league season as the starting catcher and he had minor knee surgery in the off-season. In a normal year he can expect to get about 500 ABs. This year, he'll probably get about 450. I think in a normal 500 AB season, he'll have 30-35 home runs. Some more, some less.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
In the very same post you are implying that it is okay to project Bethancourt as a decent to good hitter by using Yadier Molina as a potential comp, while dismissing Gattis as a one tool player using a small sample size. Isn't it possible that Gattis could improve his plate discipline and become a more complete hitter? I'd argue that there's every bit as much chance of that happening as there was of Molina going from a sub .700 OPS guy to an .850 - .900 middle of the order hitter. I know Gattis is a good bit older than Molina was when he was putting up average to below average offensive seasons, but Evan also has a lot fewer miles on him behind the plate. At the time of his breakout season Molina had 1,081 games (major and minor) at C, while to this point Gattis has 166.
Gattis probably won't develop any further physically, but he's still very limited in baseball experience. He has ample opportunity ahead of him to improve the weaker parts of his game.
I'm much more worried about the prospect that Evan will flake out and head for the mountains again if he hits a stretch where things don't go well for a while than I am of him failing to continue to develop his skills over the next few years.
Yeah, I don't expect huge regression in Gattis before free agency, it's after that I would concerned about. Its what level of exception you have for now before any regression.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'm basically expecting his ISO to hold steady through age 31. The area where there might be some improvement would be in the walk rate.
I don't think Bethancourt will ever be the type of hitter that Molina is. Just pointing out you can't simply look at him and say well, he'll never hit at all. I don't know that he's going to be an even good hitter, him being an average hitter would be a good thing. He has a positive that he has decent pop, but lacks the skills to distinguish good pitches to hit vs. not good pitches to hit. And I have questions to whether that is a skill that can be taught. My guess is that he gears up for fastballs and occasionally runs into one from some scummer minor leauger that doesn't know how to throw a breaking ball for a strike, but I haven't seen enough to know that for a fact. Still, he has the defensive skills to be an everyday major league catcher.
Gattis could improve on areas of hitting. Does he improve on plate discipline? What percentage of players make significant improvements in that area or is it a skill that someone is born with? His power is top notch, will he improve on pitch selection? Will he make more consistent contact?
Molina is an interesting case that has alot of the same peripherals as when he was a no hit/all defensive catcher. What he improved on was power and hitting for average. I think those are skills that can be taught.
How often do guys do that to a significant degree? I ask without knowing.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is known as an old player's skill.
Just off the top of my head, some hackers that played up into mid to late 30s. Improvement?
Dawson- No
Gary Carter- No
Robin Yount- No
Carlton Fisk- No
Do you know of specific examples? I've certainly heard people say older players walk more and have more power....is it actually true?
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Gattis walked far more in the minors, and likely will again.
Also, I'd just point out that your exemplars are all in the Hall of Fame.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Of course there are exceptions. I haven't actually seen a good study of the issue. My guess is that for the average player the walk rate increases for a while then comes down. I would also guess that it peaks a bit later than other components of hitting skill. Freddie Freeman is an example of a young player who has improved his walk rate each year, but Fredito is exceptional in the way he's been improving by almost every measure.
In the case of Gattis, there are times when he shows a good approach and times when he seems to swing at everything. I think he just needs to mature in terms of going up there with a good plan for each at bat. I do get the impression he is more capable of learning and making adjustments that someone like Jeff Francoeur, who seemed to have a deadly combination of stubbornness and stupidity.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
An excellent hitter.
Because I watch, coach, and play the game, and because I know what constitutes an excellent hitter and see it in Gattis, and because I wouldn't deign to look at a years stats at a new level and cherry-pick those into his ceiling and to buttress my short-sighted and overly-sabre based argument, I am able to see the player for what he is - an excellent hitter with light tower power. The stats will follow.
He's just coming into his own. Write it down. An excellent hitter.
Gattis walked in 6.9% of his PAs in the minors.
Just for comparisons sake:
Hackoeur= 5.5%
Heyward= 10.6%
Freeman= 7.6%
Simmons= 6.2%
I gotcha. I guess no one else on here watch, coach, or play/played baseball.
What is your definition of an excellent hitter, by the way?
If Gattis had a 7% walk rate in the majors with his power we should all be doing jumping jacks.
Depending on if his aveage is .240, .260, or .300 and how well he improves his defense.
If he's hitting .240 with a 7% walk rate, thats not an "excellent hitter." If he's hitting .280, it is.
If he is hitting 35 homers I'll love that production even if he hits 240. Not every guy in the lineup needs to have a high OBP. Sure, it would be great but if the guys before him are getting on and he is putting hte ball in the stands then I'm good. I feel like Gattis will be a 260-280 hitter though. I was really impressed with his approach against Lee but I personally feel that is a good matchup for him.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Gattis' career lines (in 391 ML at bats) provide a pretty good summary of what kind of hitter he is:
5.0% walk rate, 21.2% strikeout rate, .251 ISO, .268 BABIP, .256 BA, .298 OBP, .506 slugging, .344 wOBA
During this period, I don't think he's been especially lucky or unlucky. Both the pitchers and he have made adjustments in their approaches. This is what Evan Gattis is. He's had hot streaks and slumps in this period. He'll have more hot streaks and slumps. But I think these numbers fairly summarize him as a hitter. I do think the number that is most likely to change in a particular direction is the walk rate.
5.0% walk rate, 21.2% strikeout rate, .251 ISO, .268 BABIP, .256 BA, .298 OBP, .506 slugging, .344 wOBA
During this period, I don't think he's been especially lucky or unlucky. Both the pitchers and he have made adjustments in their approaches. This is what Evan Gattis is. He's had hot streaks and slumps in this period. He'll have more hot streaks and slumps. But I think these numbers fairly summarize him as a hitter. I do think the number that is most likely to change in a particular direction is the walk rate.