TOP 30 PROSPECTS: New Year's Eve Edition

smootness said:
Just popped in to say I didn't realize you had ranked them, Rico. I appreciate you doing it and it's always fun to talk about.

My 2 cents: I think you have Mallex quite a bit too high, and I wouldn't be quite that aggressive on Allard yet. I think in terms of ceiling, he may be #1, but I'd wait until he starts pitching.

I like most of the list, but I do not get Herbert at 15, especially over Ruiz.

It may be time to talk about moving guys like Yepez and Acuna into the top 20-30 soon.
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Ruiz has show next to nothing this year, and has frequently been stuck as DH -- not the place for a rising prospect. To me, that's a big red flag, but he cam always improve his standing by showing even a little consistency at the plate.
 
Revised as of 7/11: added Ventura, Janas and Riley; dropped Fulenchek (traded), Banuelos (promoted to stay) and Mejia (dropped to HM).
 
rico43 said:
Ruiz has show next to nothing this year, and has frequently been stuck as DH -- not the place for a rising prospect. To me, that's a big red flag, but he cam always improve his standing by showing even a little consistency at the plate.
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Ruiz has played 71 games at 3B, 3 at DH. And I just don't think prospect status should be that fluid. Ruiz hit very well last year in A+ at 20, Herbert has had 4 career AB in the GCL. I just think it's way too early to drop Ruiz that far or jump Herbert that high. Again, though, just my opinion. We're all free to have one.

I like seeing Ventura on the list but would consider adding Yepez, too. Yepez is 17 in the GCL, Ventura is 18 in the DSL.
 
With Allard in the fold, this is a good time to update my Top 30. I'm going to leave out guys like Wisler and Banuelos who look like they will be using up their rookie eligibility this year and a trio of pitchers who have been injured for all or most of the year (Fried, Parsons and Winkler). Let me start with my Top 5.

1. Ozhaino Albies. While there is some uncertainty about whether he can stick at short and his long-term power potential (both of which will go a long ways to determining his ultimate value), you have to be impressed by the age/production combination in Rome this year. Especially in the context of what he did last year.

2. Jose Peraza. Having a solid but unspectacular year in AAA. He needs more time there, but he's also just 21.

3. Kolby Allard. Glad we were able to draft a pitcher with his upside at the 15th pick. Something mundane but not insignificant to keep in mind. He is only 17. Lots of data show that age when drafted is an important variable that helps to predict future performance.

4. Juan Yepez. I'm sure my putting him so high will raise some eyebrows. Several considerations lead me to rank him very highly. He has pedigree (1M signing bonus a year ago). The Braves have had a chance to observe him and decided he should skip the DSL and go straight to the GCL. And he is not in any way overmatched so far, showing indications of both power and patience at the plate. Also just 17.

5. Braxton Davidson. Having a solid but not spectacular year in Low A at age 19. The power potential is there and chances are it will become more apparent during the games as he matures. I'm more concerned about the strikeouts and defensive profile. One of those prospects whose perfect world projection is very exciting, but is likely to fall well short of that.
 
Holy crap, Yepez 4?! Haha I didn't mean he should be that high.

It seems you're ranking solely on ceiling, so I don't understand why you have Peraza 2 in that case.

Overall, my top 5 (without Wisler, Folty, or Banuelos) would be :
1. Albies
2. Peraza
3. Davidson
4. Toussaint
5. Jenkins

Based purely on ceiling, it would be:
1. Allard
2. Toussaint
3. Davidson
4. Albies
5. Jenkins
 
smootness said:
It seems you're ranking solely on ceiling, so I don't understand why you have Peraza 2 in that case.
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Not going just by ceiling. Yepez imo has a higher floor than Davidson. Even though he is a couple years younger and a couple levels lower. A high strikeout rate at 19 is more of a warning flag than a high strikeout rate at age 17.
 
nsacpi said:
Not going just by ceiling. Yepez imo has a higher floor than Davidson. Even though he is a couple years younger and a couple levels lower. A high strikeout rate at 19 is more of a warning flag than a high strikeout rate at age 17.
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Uh ok haha. I'll take the guy putting up similar numbers in A over the guy in the GCL.

But that's fine. I disagree, but I respect someone willing to be bold and stick to it. Personally, I think Davidson has a pretty high floor because of his approach and walk rate. I don't think his K rate is a concern and actually expect it to decrease as he moves up,. But we'll see.
 
I love dreaming on upside as much as anybody, but that seems far too aggressive for Yepez. The only players that young that I would consider ranking so high would be consensus top prospects like Maitan or Guerrero.
 
mqt said:
I love dreaming on upside as much as anybody, but that seems far too aggressive for Yepez. The only players that young that I would consider ranking so high would be consensus top prospects like Maitan or Guerrero.
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It was just a year ago that Albies burst onto the scene. Yepez is a much different kind of player but he's also a seventeen year old international signing off to an impressive start.
 
nsacpi said:
It was just a year ago that Albies burst onto the scene. Yepez is a much different kind of player but he's also a seventeen year old international signing off to an impressive start.
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True, but Albies wasn't ranked as a prospect until this year, still wasn't on most lists before this year, and had a much better year (including time in Danville, too) than Yepez so far.
 
Here's my #6-10 prospects:

6. Daniel Castro. Has outhit board favorite Mallex Smith at both AA and AAA this year. Solid defender at short. Projects as a valuable utility player in the majors.

7. Mallex Smith. Has stumbled a bit in AAA after a great stint in AA. Projects as a fourth outfielder or left side of a platoon in center.

8. Touki Toussaint. Most likely will end up in a major league bullpen but has a shot as a starter. We could say the same thing of about 10 of our pitching prospects, but Touki has the most promise of this group. Hopefully one or two of those ten develop into major league starters.

9. Steve Janas. Next best of our starting prospects. Ground ball pitchers like Janas seem to sustain their success better as they move up the ladder.

10. Ricardo Sanchez. Part of the group of promising pitching prospects that I referred to above.
 
Yepez should (and will) be in my honorable mention, but his all-around performance is nothing like what we're seeing from Ventura. And I want the July signees to find a home, placement-wise, before I place them above HM.
 
nsacpi said:
Here's my #6-10 prospects:

6. Daniel Castro. Has outhit board favorite Mallex Smith at both AA and AAA this year. Solid defender at short. Projects as a valuable utility player in the majors.

7. Mallex Smith. Has stumbled a bit in AAA after a great stint in AA. Projects as a fourth outfielder or left side of a platoon in center.

8. Touki Toussaint. Most likely will end up in a major league bullpen but has a shot as a starter. We could say the same thing of about 10 of our pitching prospects, but Touki has the most promise of this group. Hopefully one or two of those ten develop into major league starters.

9. Steve Janas. Next best of our starting prospects. Ground ball pitchers like Janas seem to sustain their success better as they move up the ladder.

10. Ricardo Sanchez. Part of the group of promising pitching prospects that I referred to above.
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First and mention I've seen projecting our youngest studs to the pen. Interesting. Care to elaborate?
 
Hursh was officially moved to the bullpen Friday, but Toussaint is a moose and Jenkins led the SL in complete games before his great AAA start. No way do those guys need to go anywhere need a bullpen except to warm up before their scheduled start.

I love the idea of grooming Follty and that 100 MPH stuff into a closer, however.
 
rico43 said:
Hursh was officially moved to the bullpen Friday, but Toussaint is a moose and Jenkins led the SL in complete games before his great AAA start. No way do those guys need to go anywhere need a bullpen except to warm up before their scheduled start.

I love the idea of grooming Follty and that 100 MPH stuff into a closer, however.
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can't disagree but I don't want to move Folty til it's the last resort.
 
Tapate50 said:
First and mention I've seen projecting our youngest studs to the pen. Interesting. Care to elaborate?
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The path to being a major league starting pitcher is very steep. Imo Toussaint's chances are a little less than 50% to be a successful ML starting pitcher. The others I rate below him a bit less. Toussaint is not showing the kind of dominance that I would want to see before projecting him as a mid-rotation starting pitcher.

I'm generally higher on the pitchers in our system who have already reached the majors. I had Wisler as our #1 prospect before he got promoted. I like Folty and Williams Perez too. Banuelos has impressed me in his major league starts.

Btw I'm not advocating moving guys like Toussaint, Janas, Sanchez, Povse and Jenkins to the pen. I want to give them every opportunity to develop as starters. Same with Folty. I think they all have much more value if they can establish themselves as starters. But the reality is that most of them won't and the pen is their most likely destination in the majors.
 
nsacpi said:
The path to being a major league starting pitcher is very steep. Imo Toussaint's chances are a little less than 50% to be a successful ML starting pitcher. The others I rate below him a bit less. Toussaint is not showing the kind of dominance that I would want to see before projecting him as a mid-rotation starting pitcher.

I'm generally higher on the pitchers in our system who have already reached the majors. I had Wisler as our #1 prospect before he got promoted. I like Folty and Williams Perez too. Banuelos has impressed me in his major league starts.

Btw I'm not advocating moving guys like Toussaint, Janas, Sanchez, Povse and Jenkins to the pen. I want to give them every opportunity to develop as starters. Same with Folty. I think they all have much more value if they can establish themselves as starters. But the reality is that most of them won't and the pen is their most likely destination in the majors.
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How do you get that on Touki? Show your math. The guy throws 96+ as a teenager and a hammer curve ball. If he sniffs another pitch that equals mid rotation pitcher at the worst.

I don't like the tone of souring on kids with two starts for their new team , and "not as dominant" is an odd term to use serif as though he has been pretty dang impressive.
 
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