Trade one Keep One

Last year was a down year for HR around MLB. The team average was 140. Every other year for the last five years, the average has been between 150 and 160. The current annualized average is 153 and we still have July, August and September in front of us which are generally better for power numbers because of the heat.

During the PED era, the team average was between 170 and 180 generally. So the total has fallen on average with the clean up of baseball by about 10%. But, it hasn't continued to fall and likely won't outside of aberrational years like last year.

Last year the "power hitting" Braves hit 123 team hr, 12 below the league average of 135 and 5th from the bottom of the league. So the lesson about last year is just because a team is supposed to be powerful doesn't mean that they really are.

Is it possible to win a WS with nothing but rabbits? Anything is POSSIBLE. Is it Likely? No.

I prefer likely.
 
Peterson has cemented his place on this team. He draws walks and plays good defense which is the team mantra and it's great PR to have an immediate contributor from the Justin Upton trade producing.

Peraza is a good little player, but he's going to be included in a trade this winter for some combination of RH power and relief pitching.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I've said for a while that peraza at ss is the best ROI.

I'm just not sure we have options. Maybe the rockies would trade McMahon since they have Arenado. Maybe the twins would trade Ploffe b/c they have Sano? Not sure if we match up.

I don't see us trading Miller. That's Hart's guy.

I get that Prado is the comp for both Peraza and Peterson. My point is if Prado is a top half of the league 3b, that we could get that from one of those guys for cheap. And I think that is probably the high side of their offensive capability, but i think both of them could be better defensively. Especially Peraza.
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McMahon has crossed my mind more than a few times. Kinda wonder if the brass would roll the dice and try to "buy" McMahon like they bought Toussaint. Pretty risky gamble, but would Hart & Company be willing to offer up something like Banuelos, Wisler, or even Fried and Sims for Carlos Gonzalez and McMahon? Gar-Go's owed ~$45 million through 2017. This would mean we'd likely have to pass on the Upton/Cespedes bidding this winter, but would put us in position to bid on Carlos Gomez to replace Gonzalez going into the new park.
 
clvclv said:
McMahon has crossed my mind more than a few times. Kinda wonder if the brass would roll the dice and try to "buy" McMahon like they bought Toussaint. Pretty risky gamble, but would Hart & Company be willing to offer up something like Banuelos, Wisler, or even Fried and Sims for Carlos Gonzalez and McMahon? Gar-Go's owed ~$45 million through 2017. This would mean we'd likely have to pass on the Upton/Cespedes bidding this winter, but would put us in position to bid on Carlos Gomez to replace Gonzalez going into the new park.
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I would probably pull a Niners and quit being a Braves fan.
 
clvclv said:
McMahon has crossed my mind more than a few times. Kinda wonder if the brass would roll the dice and try to "buy" McMahon like they bought Toussaint. Pretty risky gamble, but would Hart & Company be willing to offer up something like Banuelos, Wisler, or even Fried and Sims for Carlos Gonzalez and McMahon? Gar-Go's owed ~$45 million through 2017. This would mean we'd likely have to pass on the Upton/Cespedes bidding this winter, but would put us in position to bid on Carlos Gomez to replace Gonzalez going into the new park.
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Yes. We should do that. The risk is what you say, we couldn't go too big in FA. WE can still make one splash I think though. Since it would only be 2 years of Cargo.

Lets assume this year we're around .500 this year. Going into the year before the new stadium

So I'll elaborate further. Say we make a 3 way, Send Maybin for a prospect who comes back and goes to Colorado with Sims and another prospect.

If we do that. We're on the hook for about 64 million in guaranteed. Arb players include Minor, miller, Avilan and Outman. Minor is almost for sure DFA bait.

So lets say those guys even if we keep minor are worth about 12 million. We're at 76M with 12 players under contract. So an effective minimum of 84M. If we eat Cargo's salary and dump him off on another team, we still have about 20M to play with. So Say we sign Justin.

Our lineup would go

CF - Smith
2B - Peraza
1B - Freeman
LF - Justin
RF - Markakis
3B - Peterson
SS - Simmons
C - Bethancourt.
 
clvclv said:
McMahon has crossed my mind more than a few times. Kinda wonder if the brass would roll the dice and try to "buy" McMahon like they bought Toussaint. Pretty risky gamble, but would Hart & Company be willing to offer up something like Banuelos, Wisler, or even Fried and Sims for Carlos Gonzalez and McMahon? Gar-Go's owed ~$45 million through 2017. This would mean we'd likely have to pass on the Upton/Cespedes bidding this winter, but would put us in position to bid on Carlos Gomez to replace Gonzalez going into the new park.
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I have no idea....but there are a couple of 3B that look to be ready in the 2016 or 2017 time frame that play for teams with decent 3B today. I listed them. Texas, Rockies, Twins, Mariners. Rockies and Twins make the most sense to me.

I wonder if we could come up with something that works for both sides.
 
clvclv said:
McMahon has crossed my mind more than a few times. Kinda wonder if the brass would roll the dice and try to "buy" McMahon like they bought Toussaint. Pretty risky gamble, but would Hart & Company be willing to offer up something like Banuelos, Wisler, or even Fried and Sims for Carlos Gonzalez and McMahon? Gar-Go's owed ~$45 million through 2017. This would mean we'd likely have to pass on the Upton/Cespedes bidding this winter, but would put us in position to bid on Carlos Gomez to replace Gonzalez going into the new park.
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Are you suggesting we offer Banuelos, Wisler, Fried, and Sims for those two? I would argue that is far too much to give up. McMahon is a good prospect, but he's not a great one. He's basically doing similar things at the same age as Ruiz did in AA last year...slightly better. So I'm not sure he really helps us all that much. And as a prospect, he's rated similarly to a guy like Sims and not as good as either Wisler or Fried. And CarGo just isn't that good anymore. With the money he's owed, we would definitely be overpaying with that package by quite a bit.
 
smootness said:
Are you suggesting we offer Banuelos, Wisler, Fried, and Sims for those two? I would argue that is far too much to give up. McMahon is a good prospect, but he's not a great one. He's basically doing similar things at the same age as Ruiz did in AA last year...slightly better. So I'm not sure he really helps us all that much. And as a prospect, he's rated similarly to a guy like Sims and not as good as either Wisler or Fried. And CarGo just isn't that good anymore. With the money he's owed, we would definitely be overpaying with that package by quite a bit.
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Probably right. And he's a LH hitter, which isn't ideal for us. But he has power, but it looks like he's a level below Ruiz right now.

Like I said, I don't know the answer. And like every trade, it's about cost and risk. But I think it would be interesting to see if there is a match where someone has a good 3B and a close 3B prospect and see if either is available. Would the twins let go of Plouffe to make room for sano?
 
smootness said:
Are you suggesting we offer Banuelos, Wisler, Fried, and Sims for those two? I would argue that is far too much to give up. McMahon is a good prospect, but he's not a great one. He's basically doing similar things at the same age as Ruiz did in AA last year...slightly better. So I'm not sure he really helps us all that much. And as a prospect, he's rated similarly to a guy like Sims and not as good as either Wisler or Fried. And CarGo just isn't that good anymore. With the money he's owed, we would definitely be overpaying with that package by quite a bit.
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I said "Banuelos, Wisler, or even Fried and Sims" - one of those three plus Sims for Car-Go and McMahon.

Unlike Zito, I wouldn't move Maybin unless we got a really nice return in that instance - Car-Go is far too injury-prone, so I'd prefer to keep Cam around in the event he has two more injury-riddled seasons (which you almost have to expect at this point) and we couldn't buy-down some of his contract to land a useful prospect from someone else for him.

As for comparing Ruiz to McMahon, it's not really particularly close. There's no question about McMahon's glove or ability to stick at 3B...

"Defensively, he has the chance to be as good as the Gold Glover currently in Colorado, Nolan Arrenado, with great hands, a strong throwing arm and outstanding instincts at the hot corner."

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=3b
 
clvclv said:
I said "Banuelos, Wisler, or even Fried and Sims" - one of those three plus Sims for Car-Go and McMahon.
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Ahhhh ok. Sorry about that; I misread it.

I didn't realize McMahon was that highly regarded defensively, so yes, he's a better prospect than Ruiz. But I would prefer to give them Ruiz back in the trade, then, and save some of the pitching.

I would consider something like Banuelos, Ruiz, and Sims for those two.
 
chop2chip said:
You can win a World Series with a roster without homerun hitters.

It's just a lot easier if you have them.

I don't understand why anyone would argue the contrary.
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I wouldn't say otherwise. But it's more important to have simply good hitters rather simply power hitters. If we only had Freddie and Maybin as our only power hitters, but Jace, Peraza, Mallex Smith, and Markakis were all getting on base at around a .340 clip or better, we could still field a very good offense, despite the lack of power.

Regardless, the point of the Royals post was more so that the 20 homers arbitrary. Yes, indeed, 20 is not what it used to be. 10 years ago it was hard to find 2-3 teams without multiple 20 homer players. This year, they'll probably be 3 teams in the NL East alone without multiple 20 homer hitters.
 
Carp said:
I wouldn't say otherwise. But it's more important to have simply good hitters rather simply power hitters. If we only had Freddie and Maybin as our only power hitters, but Jace, Peraza, Mallex Smith, and Markakis were all getting on base at around a .340 clip or better, we could still field a very good offense, despite the lack of power.
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Maybin has an iso slightly over 1. Calling him a power hitter is comical.

Its teally tough to call any offense a good one when they slug under .400 and that offense would almost certainly do so. (Assuming Simmons a non great hitting catcher). Which good offenses slug under .4?

The chances of all 4 getting on at a .340 clip is also optmistic.
 
Phols may have 2 guys over 20 but your point doesnt make since because those 3 teams all have bad offenses.
 
Given 650 at bats, Maybin should hit somewhere around 15-20 homers with his current production. That's nothing to sneeze at.

And I never said I expected that from those players. I'm just pointing out that it can be done and it's more important to simply have a team full of good hitters, regardless how they many homers they hit. If Jace, Mallex, and Peraza are all indeed good hitters, then it's rather irrelevant if none of them hit the magical 20 homers.
 
Actually I totally forgot about the Phils. So that's 4 teams could potentially not have 2 players with 20 homers or more.

The point is that even bad offenses 10 years ago or more still had multiple 20 homer hitters. 20 homers is an arbitrary number. Without looking I would venture that in the last 25 years, 1 or fewer number of teams have won the WS without multiple hitters with a .330 OBP . These numbers are arbritary.
 
Carp said:
Given 650 at bats, Maybin should hit somewhere around 15-20 homers with his current production. That's nothing to sneeze at.

And I never said I expected that from those players. I'm just pointing out that it can be done and it's more important to simply have a team full of good hitters, regardless how they many homers they hit. If Jace, Mallex, and Peraza are all indeed good hitters, then it's rather irrelevant if none of them hit the magical 20 homers.
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Wale me up when Maybin hits 20 homers.

Do you consider .340/.375 guys good hitters?

Setting the standard at .330 obp is awfully low. Its like saying I bet there arent many WS winners without multiple guys winning 10 games.
 
In my opinion, I think it's pretty clear the path to take is to move Peraza back to SS and then trade him. He simply isn't going to hit enough to play anywhere but SS, and Simmons has SS locked down for the foreseeable future. Jace is an excellent defender at 2B, has proven he can be a table setter in the lineup, and is more likely to be productive offensively because his value isn't tied to closely to his BABIP.
 
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