Trades reviewd

B

bravesfanforlife88

Well-known member
Figured now that we are a full season into most of the major trades from last offseason, it would be a good time to reflect on the trades.

Trade 1:

Heyward/Walden to Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins:

2015 Stats:

Heyward: played 154 games, getting 610 plate appearances: .293 avg 13 HRs 60 RBI .797 OPS

Walden: 10.1 IP 4/12 BB/K 0.87 ERA. Got hurt and looks to miss a significant amount of time next year.

Miller: 6-17 win/loss 3.02 era 205 IP 73/171 BB/K

Jenkins: 8-9 win/loss (combined AA and AAA) 3.19 ERA 138.1 IP 41/59 BB/K

Based off the information above, I think it could be argued that the trade was a fair trade for both teams with a possible edge to the Braves. Heyward had a great season for the Cardinals helping get them to a 100 win season and NLDS. But with Walden getting injured and Heyward heading into Free Agency, there are some uncertainties moving forward.

For the Braves, Shelby Miller posted a near dominant year with the worst luck in the history of baseball that not even JoBu could stop. 200 Innings pitched an ERA right at 3 and could not get more than 6 wins, REALLY? He is still young and controlled for a few years. Jenkins was coming back from injury this year and eased into a pretty solid year. I'm sure that we will see improvement on the BB/K rate as he matures. And he will be a staple in a Braves uniform for years to come.

I am at work and do not have time to go through the Upton/Gattis/Kimbrel trades if anyone else wants to help me out on those it would be appreciated!
 
Trade 2: Justin Upton, Aaron Northcraft to Padres for Max Fried, Jace Peterson, Dustin Peterson, Mallex Smith.

2015 Stats:
Upton: 150 GP, 620 PAs. .251/.336/.454 (.790 OPS). 68/159 BB/K, 19 SB. WAR around 4.
Northcraft: 39 GP, 7 GS between AA and AAA. 83.1 IP, 82 H, 59/40 BB. 4.21 ERA, 1.46 WHIP.

Fried: missed whole year rehabbing from TJ.
J. Peterson: 152 GP, 597 PAs. .234/.314/.335 (.649 OPS). 56/120 BB/K. WAR around 1, defense slid to slightly above-average.
D. Peterson: 118 GP, 498 PAs in A+. .251/.317/.348 (.665 OPS). 44/91 BB/K.
Smith: 126 GP, 548 PAs between AA and AAA. .306/.373/.386 (.760 OPS). 51/85 BB/K, 57 SB/13 CS.

I have to consider this a win as well. The Padres obviously won it this year on the major league level, as we knew they would. But while Upton started off extremely hot, he ended up with probably the worst offensive year of his career. His WAR ended up pretty good because his defensive numbers rebounded and he was an excellent base runner with a spike in his SB numbers compared to his time in Atlanta.

He is also a FA now, and Northcraft was just a throw-in who the Padres have mostly moved to the pen. Fried sat out as we were aware at the time of the deal, but he still represents a very high-upside arm. And the other 3 pieces gave reasons for excitement with reasons for caution as well. Jace started the year very well, then struggled later and ended up with only an OK year. He showed ability to get on base, but his average needs to come up, and his base running needs to improve quite a bit. His defense should be solid to good, but not great as it looked early.

Dustin struggled a lot later in the year but was on fire before the bus crash and ended the year on a bit of a hot streak. Mallex was phenomenal in AA and after initially struggling in AAA, he got it going there, too. His BB rate remained good and his K rate wasn't bad. He just needs to keep working on his defense and making solid contact. His speed will do the rest.

We got a potential high-end SP and three pieces who should be anywhere from good bench player to solid starting option. Not bad for one pretty good year from a corner OF.
 
With both the Upton and Heyward trades, there is also the draft pick foregone. Though it could be argued that Miller will also bring a draft pick when he eventually hits free agency.
 
I still think this is a win for the Braves regardless of how Heyward played. To get 2 quality starters for one year of Heyward is a huge plus for the Braves. I have no doubt the Cards benefited from Heyward, but they didn't make it to the ultimate goal and now really don't have much to show for it outside of possible draft pick. The Braves can control Miller for another two years and either trade him after the 2017 season or extend him or just let him walk after 2018.. That is far more valuable than having a player who helped you to 100 wins this season and then is gone.
 
We robbed the Padres in the Upton deal.

Fried and Mallex would have been a huge get for one year of Upton.. but we got a 2nd baseman who has potential and a 3rd baseman/OF who if he can ever learn pitch awareness would be a solid bat (he Ks way to much for low ball pitching).. but again, Fried and Mallex make the Upton trade a win all by themselves..
 
Trade 3: Evan Gattis, James Hoyt to Astros for Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman.

2015 Stats:
Gattis: 153 GP, 604 PAs (almost solely at DH, none at C). .246/.285/.463 (.748 OPS). 30/119 BB/K. About 0-0.5 WAR.
Hoyt: 47 GP in AAA (all as RP, mostly as CL). 49 IP, 48 H, 66/11 K/BB. 3.49 ERA, 1.2 WHIP.

Foltynewicz: 28 GP, 25 GS between AAA and MLB. 86.2 IP, 112 H, 77/29 K/BB, 5.71 ERA, 1.63 WHIP in MLB, around 0 WAR. 56.2 IP, 52 H, 63/26 K/BB, 3.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in AAA.
Ruiz: 127 GP, 489 PAs in AA. .233/.333/.324 (.657 OPS). 63/94 BB/K.
Thurman: 16 GP, 16 GS between A+ and AA. 81.2 IP, 86 H, 57/27 K/BB. 4.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP.

It's hard to judge this trade at this point. It needs at least another year to better judge, but at this point I would say it's a fairly even, reasonable trade that both sides were disappointed with to some level.

Ruiz really struggled in AA, though he did get hot late and hit 4 of his 5 HR in the last month. He's only 20, so if he comes back to AA next year and hits well, he's still on track. Foltynewicz really struggled in MLB, though he showed flashes. It looked like he had turned a corner in the middle of the season only to crash back down to earth. His AAA numbers are better than last year's, though, so next year is a big year for him. He still has the talent, but it remains to be seen if he can put it together. He should at least develop into a decent bullpen arm. And Thurman showed some flashes as well, though at 23 he's unlikely to ever make an impact in the majors.

Gattis hit much like he did during his 2 years in Atlanta, but his BABIP came back to 2013 levels, and his overall numbers weren't great. The power is still there, but a DH with an OBP well under .300 won't cut it. His K rate came down some, so if he can get his BA back up to around .260+ he can be a good piece for Houston, but I'm not sure he won't start taking a back seat to others soon. Hoyt pitched extremely well in AAA and could have been a potential bullpen arm for us next year, but at 29 it's unlikely he'll develop into much.

Overall, it's hard to say it was a bad deal for Houston as they made the postseason, partly due to the power they got from guys like Gattis. But overall he didn't add much value for them. It's also hard to say it was a bad deal for Atlanta given the potential Folty and Ruiz still have, but adding Olivera means there's not much room for Ruiz over the next 2-3 years if he does turn it around, and hope for Folty is diminishing. I think it's probably likely we look back at this deal in a few years and realize neither team got much, but I think Ruiz still has a real chance to make it.

Again, a pretty even, though disappointing, deal for both teams.
 
Trade 4: Craig Kimbrel, BJ Upton to Padres for Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Matt Wisler, Jordan Paroubeck, 41st pick in 2015 draft.

2015 Stats:
Kimbrel: 61 GP, 39 saves. 59.1 IP, 40 H, 87/22 K/BB. 2.58 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. WAR around 1.5.
Upton: 87 GP, 228 PAs. .259/.327/.429 (.757 OPS). 21/62 BB/K, 9 SB/3 CS. WAR around 1.5.

Quentin: released shortly after trade, did not play in 2015.
Maybin: 141 GP, 555 PAs. .267/.327/.370 (.697 OPS). 45/102 BB/K, 23 SB/6 CS. WAR around 1 or a little below.
Wisler: 32 GP, 31 GS between AAA and MLB. 109 IP, 119 H, 72/40 K/BB, 4.71 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in MLB, between 0-0.5 WAR; 65 IP, 68 H, 49/13 K/BB, 4.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in AAA.
Paroubeck: did not play for Atlanta affiliate, traded for international slot money.
41st pick: used to draft Austin Riley. 60 GP, 252 PAs between 2 rookie leagues. .304/.389/.544 (.933 OPS). 26/65 BB/K. 12 HR, 25 XBH.

This trade has to be seen as an unquestioned win for the Braves. While the Padres technically won the MLB portion of this trade this year, they won it by less than assumed at the time it was made. Kimbrel was still awesome, but with a higher hit rate, HR rate, and BB rate than during most of his time with the Braves, his overall value dropped. Upton inexplicably reverted to his TB form and actually played well over the second half, and even though Maybin played better than expected, Upton provided more value in a shorter time frame than Maybin did. And Quentin obviously gave us no value.

But we got a potential future #2-3 SP and a guy who can at least get us by in CF for a couple years for a closer we didn't need and a clubhouse cancer who was dreadful for us. And that's before factoring in the money, which is the real win here for Atlanta. Even after taking on Quentin and Maybin's money, the $46+ million we saved on BJ is incredible. Paroubeck was one of the pieces that allowed us to sign Cruz and Pache while still giving us the opportunity to go nuts in 2016. And adding Riley into the deal just makes it an overwhelming win for the Braves.

This was a beautiful deal by the front office, where it helped us on multiple fronts. We basically used Kimbrel, who was an expendable piece, to save a ton of money, rid the clubhouse of BJ, get a replacement in CF, and keep our international strategy intact while still adding good pieces this year while also adding two legit prospects. Genius.
 
Gattis trade is a huge question mark and the only one from last offseason that's in question. Jury is very much so out on Ruiz and Folty. But I really want to see Folty given another FULL year as a starter. Power pitchers take time and don't always dominant in the minors. They click at different times. Just look at Degrom.
 
emk418 said:
Gattis trade is a huge question mark and the only one from last offseason that's in question. Jury is very much so out on Ruiz and Folty. But I really want to see Folty given another FULL year as a starter. Power pitchers take time and don't always dominant in the minors. They click at different times. Just look at Degrom.
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I couldn't disagree with you more regarding the trade. Although, Rio and Andrew probably never make it to more than org filler status.. maybe Thurman hits BP guy one day.. Folty has way more upside than Gattis ever will. And I loved the white bear. Folty needs every opportunity to prove himself as a starter so I completely agree with you there.
 
Folty, Fried and Allard are the only guys that have the potential to be an Ace at the level of guys like Price/Kershaw/Greinke. Worst case scenario with Folty is a late innings BP guy to pair with Viz, but that transition to the BP can be made very quickly. There is no reason to move him to the BP until the Braves are actually ready to win something and actually need to protect late inning leads. At that time they can begin setting up their very own KC-like BP.
 
smootness said:
Trade 4: Craig Kimbrel, BJ Upton to Padres for Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Matt Wisler, Jordan Paroubeck, 41st pick in 2015 draft.

2015 Stats:
Kimbrel: 61 GP, 39 saves. 59.1 IP, 40 H, 87/22 K/BB. 2.58 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. WAR around 1.5.
Upton: 87 GP, 228 PAs. .259/.327/.429 (.757 OPS). 21/62 BB/K, 9 SB/3 CS. WAR around 1.5.

Quentin: released shortly after trade, did not play in 2015.
Maybin: 141 GP, 555 PAs. .267/.327/.370 (.697 OPS). 45/102 BB/K, 23 SB/6 CS. WAR around 1 or a little below.
Wisler: 32 GP, 31 GS between AAA and MLB. 109 IP, 119 H, 72/40 K/BB, 4.71 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in MLB, between 0-0.5 WAR; 65 IP, 68 H, 49/13 K/BB, 4.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in AAA.
Paroubeck: did not play for Atlanta affiliate, traded for international slot money.
41st pick: used to draft Austin Riley. 60 GP, 252 PAs between 2 rookie leagues. .304/.389/.544 (.933 OPS). 26/65 BB/K. 12 HR, 25 XBH.

This trade has to be seen as an unquestioned win for the Braves. While the Padres technically won the MLB portion of this trade this year, they won it by less than assumed at the time it was made. Kimbrel was still awesome, but with a higher hit rate, HR rate, and BB rate than during most of his time with the Braves, his overall value dropped. Upton inexplicably reverted to his TB form and actually played well over the second half, and even though Maybin played better than expected, Upton provided more value in a shorter time frame than Maybin did. And Quentin obviously gave us no value.

But we got a potential future #2-3 SP and a guy who can at least get us by in CF for a couple years for a closer we didn't need and a clubhouse cancer who was dreadful for us. And that's before factoring in the money, which is the real win here for Atlanta. Even after taking on Quentin and Maybin's money, the $46+ million we saved on BJ is incredible. Paroubeck was one of the pieces that allowed us to sign Cruz and Pache while still giving us the opportunity to go nuts in 2016. And adding Riley into the deal just makes it an overwhelming win for the Braves.

This was a beautiful deal by the front office, where it helped us on multiple fronts. We basically used Kimbrel, who was an expendable piece, to save a ton of money, rid the clubhouse of BJ, get a replacement in CF, and keep our international strategy intact while still adding good pieces this year while also adding two legit prospects. Genius.
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My only gripe--and it is only a minor gripe along with being my only gripe--is I wish this would have been the first big trade made instead of the last. Getting Melvin off the payroll was a feat in and of itself and if he would have been sent packing in October, the rest of the off-season may have looked a lot different.
 
Melvin put a pretty nice year... normalized for 600 PAs, he averaged about a 4 WAR season.

Not saying he would've done it... but just making a point that he was better than say... Nick the Stick
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I still think this is a win for the Braves regardless of how Heyward played. To get 2 quality starters for one year of Heyward is a huge plus for the Braves. I have no doubt the Cards benefited from Heyward, but they didn't make it to the ultimate goal and now really don't have much to show for it outside of possible draft pick. The Braves can control Miller for another two years and either trade him after the 2017 season or extend him or just let him walk after 2018.. That is far more valuable than having a player who helped you to 100 wins this season and then is gone.
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We don't know that Tyrell Jenkins will be a quality starter. If he doesn't improve his peripherals he'll be lucky to be a starter at all in the majors. I'm hoping he does. But I'll just say I have my reservations.
 
smootness said:
Trade 3: Evan Gattis, James Hoyt to Astros for Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman.

2015 Stats:
Gattis: 153 GP, 604 PAs (almost solely at DH, none at C). .246/.285/.463 (.748 OPS). 30/119 BB/K. About 0-0.5 WAR.
Hoyt: 47 GP in AAA (all as RP, mostly as CL). 49 IP, 48 H, 66/11 K/BB. 3.49 ERA, 1.2 WHIP.

Foltynewicz: 28 GP, 25 GS between AAA and MLB. 86.2 IP, 112 H, 77/29 K/BB, 5.71 ERA, 1.63 WHIP in MLB, around 0 WAR. 56.2 IP, 52 H, 63/26 K/BB, 3.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in AAA.
Ruiz: 127 GP, 489 PAs in AA. .233/.333/.324 (.657 OPS). 63/94 BB/K.
Thurman: 16 GP, 16 GS between A+ and AA. 81.2 IP, 86 H, 57/27 K/BB. 4.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP.

It's hard to judge this trade at this point. It needs at least another year to better judge, but at this point I would say it's a fairly even, reasonable trade that both sides were disappointed with to some level.

Ruiz really struggled in AA, though he did get hot late and hit 4 of his 5 HR in the last month. He's only 20, so if he comes back to AA next year and hits well, he's still on track. Foltynewicz really struggled in MLB, though he showed flashes. It looked like he had turned a corner in the middle of the season only to crash back down to earth. His AAA numbers are better than last year's, though, so next year is a big year for him. He still has the talent, but it remains to be seen if he can put it together. He should at least develop into a decent bullpen arm. And Thurman showed some flashes as well, though at 23 he's unlikely to ever make an impact in the majors.

Gattis hit much like he did during his 2 years in Atlanta, but his BABIP came back to 2013 levels, and his overall numbers weren't great. The power is still there, but a DH with an OBP well under .300 won't cut it. His K rate came down some, so if he can get his BA back up to around .260+ he can be a good piece for Houston, but I'm not sure he won't start taking a back seat to others soon. Hoyt pitched extremely well in AAA and could have been a potential bullpen arm for us next year, but at 29 it's unlikely he'll develop into much.

Overall, it's hard to say it was a bad deal for Houston as they made the postseason, partly due to the power they got from guys like Gattis. But overall he didn't add much value for them. It's also hard to say it was a bad deal for Atlanta given the potential Folty and Ruiz still have, but adding Olivera means there's not much room for Ruiz over the next 2-3 years if he does turn it around, and hope for Folty is diminishing. I think it's probably likely we look back at this deal in a few years and realize neither team got much, but I think Ruiz still has a real chance to make it.

Again, a pretty even, though disappointing, deal for both teams.
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This was a win for us, before trading for Olivera. Ruiz was important depth at 3B, a weak position on this team and a totally legit prospect. Now we've log jammed one of our more talented prospects behind a guy who can't field the position. What's scary is I can see him going to LF, and then we have him and Markakis log jamming Braxton Davidson. Not a fan of the Olivera trade even a little bit right now. Hopefully he becomes a star and proves me wrong.

But if you told me we coudl have had an arm like FOlty, and a bat like Ruiz for Gattis, I'd call it a win. I wouldn't have made it my first trade, but after we obviously were gonna suck it made sense.
 
I still kinda get depressed when thinking about these trades, outside of the Kimbrel deal, which cleared a ton of salary for us. For a year of Heyward, a year of Upton, and controllable years of Gattis (glad to see we sold high), we didn't get one piece of elite talent back. Gonna be kinda hard to compete with the Mets for years to come who are running out 5 young aces (two being Syndegaard and Wheeler who were acquired in robbery deals) when we don't have any elite talent besides in our very low levels.
 
NYCBrave said:
I still kinda get depressed when thinking about these trades, outside of the Kimbrel deal, which cleared a ton of salary for us. For a year of Heyward, a year of Upton, and controllable years of Gattis (glad to see we sold high), we didn't get one piece of elite talent back. Gonna be kinda hard to compete with the Mets for years to come who are running out 5 young aces (two being Syndegaard and Wheeler who were acquired in robbery deals) when we don't have any elite talent besides in our very low levels.
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To be fair, the Mets have been pretty lucky with their pitching staff. TINSTAAP aside, DeGrom was never projected to be an ace-level prospect and even Syndergaard wasn't an uber prospect (Sickels rated him a B+ in 2012 (upgraded to an A- in 2013), and Baseball America had him outside their Top 50 list. Of course, Baseball Prospectus had him in the top 30 so he wasn't chopped liver but still... neither was projected like Kershaw or Urias until they had already broken out.

We have to give our young talent time to come into their own. Some - perhaps most - will bust en route... that's just the risk with young talent. However it only takes 1-2 to make it as star (or superstar) level players for us to surround that core with additional talent and be competitive.
 
zitothebrave said:
We don't know that Tyrell Jenkins will be a quality starter. If he doesn't improve his peripherals he'll be lucky to be a starter at all in the majors. I'm hoping he does. But I'll just say I have my reservations.
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Of course Jenkins may not make it. But when I called the pair quality starters. I meant one at majors and one that has a high ceiling. Still a great trade for a year of heyward that wouldn't have helped us nor helped the cards in the scheme of things. We have four plus years to enjoy this trade. The cards have a draft pick to enjoy.
 
NYCBrave said:
I still kinda get depressed when thinking about these trades, outside of the Kimbrel deal, which cleared a ton of salary for us. For a year of Heyward, a year of Upton, and controllable years of Gattis (glad to see we sold high), we didn't get one piece of elite talent back. Gonna be kinda hard to compete with the Mets for years to come who are running out 5 young aces (two being Syndegaard and Wheeler who were acquired in robbery deals) when we don't have any elite talent besides in our very low levels.
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Wisler showed flashes of what he can do. Fried hasn't pitched. Jenkins is coming off surgery. Folty is the power arm everyone loves. Andrew Thurman is a throw in that who knows. Stop whining and let them develop.
 
NYCBrave said:
I still kinda get depressed when thinking about these trades, outside of the Kimbrel deal, which cleared a ton of salary for us. For a year of Heyward, a year of Upton, and controllable years of Gattis (glad to see we sold high), we didn't get one piece of elite talent back. Gonna be kinda hard to compete with the Mets for years to come who are running out 5 young aces (two being Syndegaard and Wheeler who were acquired in robbery deals) when we don't have any elite talent besides in our very low levels.
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That's because none of those guys were worth an elite guy. Nobody is going to give up Kris Bryant for 1 year of any OFer or for 4 years of a DH that can barely put up a .300 OBP.

I would also argue that Miller (for Heyward) is close to elite, Fried is nearly elite and Mallex is potentially an impact leadoff hitter (for JUp), and Folty is nearly elite (for Gattis). They may not be top 20 guys, but they do have a shot at being impact/elite guys. When you're trading away rentals and a DH I'm not sure you can realistically expect to get much better in return.
 
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