TUESDAY FINAL THREAD 5/9 .... Acuna debuts big in AA

atl717 said:
I haven't seen anybody say they think Sims will stick in a rotation.
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On that note... From FG:

Lucas Sims | Braves

Sims was a big prospect a couple years back, but he’s fallen off Top 100 lists the last couple of seasons despite still being just 23 years old. The righty has been tremendous in his second tour of Triple-A with a huge improvement in his walk rate at 6%. He has a career 11% mark in 575.7 minor league innings. Eric Longenhagen has his delivery as the cause behind the poor control. I couldn’t find anything about delivery changes, only a commitment to sharpening the mental aspects of his game, so we’ll see how real this walk rate is, but don’t sleep on the former Top 100 prospect.
 
smootness said:
This FO has pretty much gone upside with every move they've made in the last 2 years.
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An interesting analysis would be to compare the "safe pick" success rate to the "high upside / high risk / reward pick" success rate.

I don't think this is even possible, but I would ventrure to guess high floor selections do not succeed at a higher rate than high ceiling selections. Thus I love our new approach. At least if they work out, we get high ceiling.
 
smootness said:
This FO has pretty much gone upside with every move they've made in the last 2 years.
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I think 'high upside' has different connotation when you are talking about the draft than it does with respect to any given transaction a team makes.
 
Hawk said:
I think 'high upside' has different connotation when you are talking about the draft than it does with respect to any given transaction a team makes.
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I just mean that they have consistently targeted players with high ceilings, whether it is through trade, the draft, or the international market.

We have clearly shifted from the Wren-era Hursh/Gilmartin/Minor types to guys like Allard, Soroka, Wentz, and Anderson. We clearly value youth, raw talent, and HS over college.
 
smootness said:
We have clearly shifted from the Wren-era Hursh/Gilmartin/Minor types to guys like Allard, Soroka, Wentz, and Anderson. We clearly value youth, raw talent, and HS over college.
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Even the trades we have made...A Jackson, A Morris, Luke Jackson, Demeritte, Seymour. All trades to send away good high floor type prospects for high ceiling prospects.
 
zbhargrove said:
Boy Blair and Wisler are making this make or break year count....
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Their stuff was just average (4-5 starter type) and the Braves wanted the to focus more on the pitching side to reach that potential. Apparently instead, it f***ed them up. Oh well, you need some like this for the statistics to stay accurate. Better them be lost, then Allard, Fried, Soroka???
 
zbhargrove said:
They didn't before this year but now he's been lights out in AAA with 3 pitches and a minuscule wall rate. Quite a few talking about it now
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Link or examples? I'm glad he's performing. I still see him as a multi inning reliever. What's his velo looked like this year for anyone who watched. I saw a scout somewhere say 90-94.
 
bravesguy said:
Their stuff was just average (4-5 starter type) and the Braves wanted the to focus more on the pitching side to reach that potential. Apparently instead, it f***ed them up. Oh well, you need some like this for the statistics to stay accurate. Better them be lost, then Allard, Fried, Soroka???
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Haha yes, we have sacrificed them to the gods of prospect bust rates so that our younger, more talented guys will hit.
 
atl717 said:
Link or examples? I'm glad he's performing. I still see him as a multi inning reliever. What's his velo looked like this year for anyone who watched. I saw a scout somewhere say 90-94.
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Just get off the couch and look at the stats this year man. That scout was wrong or you're confusing him with someone else. He can run it up to 97-98 and sits at 93-95. His control was the only thing keeping him from starting and now his control has been impeccable this year at AAA.

Oh and there was a link posted above on this page by Eric from Fangraphs
 
zbhargrove said:
Just get off the couch and look at the stats this year man. That scout was wrong or you're confusing him with someone else. He can run it up to 97-98 and sits at 93-95. His control was the only thing keeping him from starting and now his control has been impeccable this year at AAA.
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Dude, come on.

You can easily look at stats while sitting on the couch. In fact, it's the best place to do it.
 
smootness said:
I just mean that they have consistently targeted players with high ceilings, whether it is through trade, the draft, or the international market.
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What's your benchmark for consistency? How do acquisitions like Kemp/Colon/Dickey/Phillips etc. factor into that calculus?

We have clearly shifted from the Wren-era Hursh/Gilmartin/Minor types to guys like Allard, Soroka, Wentz, and Anderson. We clearly value youth, raw talent, and HS over college.
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Or, rather, the Major League roster is rot gut and management isn't under pressure to keep a winning product on the field and thusly can afford to take more risk.
 
Hawk said:
What's your benchmark for consistency? How do acquisitions like Kemp/Colon/Dickey/Phillips etc. factor into that calculus?

Or, rather, the Major League roster is rot gut and management isn't under pressure to keep a winning product on the field and thusly can afford to take more risk.
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I'll clarify. In acquiring young minor league talent toward the rebuild efforts, we have consistently targeted players with high ceilings. It's why I left out free agency.

Players already at the major league level are guys we know a lot more about. When acquiring the guys we know less about in the hopes they eventually become major league players, we have consistently targeted guys with high ceilings.
 
Hawk said:
What's your benchmark for consistency? How do acquisitions like Kemp/Colon/Dickey/Phillips etc. factor into that calculus?

Or, rather, the Major League roster is rot gut and management isn't under pressure to keep a winning product on the field and thusly can afford to take more risk.
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Colon, Dickey, Garcia, Phillips were veterans on one year deals who cost no significant assets to acquire. That's the story there. I don't think it sheds much light on upside except that the Braves weren't going to lose 110 games for the privilege of auditioning every guy with upside at the MLB level. that would be a strategy too, I guess, but I think that is one that they didn't think would work for the organization. Let's face it. People are giving them guff anyway that they aren't winning now. it would be worse.

Kemp is still a bit of a mystery to me. I think perhaps he might have been a buy low play (the Braves were paid to take him), though it has always been a peculiar one to me. I guess it was an attempt to open an early window if things went just right. Not sure what the opportunity cost actually has been, but its not insignificant.
 
smootness said:
I'll clarify. In acquiring young minor league talent toward the rebuild efforts, we have consistently targeted players with high ceilings. It's why I left out free agency.

Players already at the major league level are guys we know a lot more about. When acquiring the guys we know less about in the hopes they eventually become major league players, we have consistently targeted guys with high ceilings.
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Ok, but what you've just stated is kind of the entire point of a rebuild. Acquire young, high ceiling talent in exchange for moving your proven/reliably projectable talent (or, as you put it, 'guys we know more about'). I don't see the Braves as having been any more or (necessarily, although last year's draft might serve as a counter-point) any less aggressive than other rebuilding teams in acquiring high-risk, high-reward talent. Do you?
 
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