Varvaro traded to Red Sox for RHP Kurcz

Johnson last year was a bit more unlucky with the home run ball last year and walked way more than he previously ever had. His GB %, k/9, fastball velocity, etc remained the same. Even if you don't believe he will be the guy he was in Baltimore, he's a strong regress back to the mean candidate (good version).
 
chop2chip said:
Johnson last year was a bit more unlucky with the home run ball last year and walked way more than he previously ever had. His GB %, k/9, fastball velocity, etc remained the same. Even if you don't believe he will be the guy he was in Baltimore, he's a strong regress back to the mean candidate (good version).
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And Vavaro is still better...
 
chop2chip said:
Last year, yes.

Over the larger sample of 4 years. It's not close. JJ is much better.
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And likely better going forward. JJ was very luck his two 50 save seasons. Fips in the mid 3's. Super low ERA that was sustainable. Got on the unlucky side of that last year. He's an average reliever.
 
nsacpi said:
I would mention something about FIP and sample sizes, but that would be too extreme.
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Jim Johnson bWAR from 2011-2013: 6.6 WAR

A three year sample size I would argue, is probably adequate for a reliever. If he didn't implode last year, he's probably getting a decent sized contract this offseason.
 
chop2chip said:
Jim Johnson fWAR from 2011-2013: 6.6 WAR

A three year sample size I would argue, is probably adequate for a reliever. If he didn't implode last year, he's probably getting a decent sized contract this offseason.
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baseball ref WAR maybe. His WAR in fangraphs was 3.5 over that span.
 
thewupk said:
And likely better going forward. JJ was very luck his two 50 save seasons. Fips in the mid 3's. Super low ERA that was sustainable. Got on the unlucky side of that last year. He's an average reliever.
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You're right. He's probably an average reliever moving forward. Steamer has him as average. But the point is that for three years Jim Johnson was very good reliever.

Also, isn't FIP generally pretty unfair to GB heavy pitchers? It never really ever liked Huddy.
 
I'm hopeful that Anthony will be included in an Upton trade this week, because I think he is 25-man roster material in this league. Granted, he will likely be non-tendered next year by whomever he plays for, so we're not talking about the biggest of deals here.

I think it's a close call on the Jim J versus Anthony V debate, but I'll vote for Jim J. Remember that Jim J has been pitching mostly high-leverage innings in recent years, and Anthony was mostly a mop-up man. Also, Jim J didn't have velocity issues last year, while Anthony showed a drop off of 2-3 MPH on his fastball toward the end of last year.

Here are the 2015 Steamer Projections:

Johnson: 3.42 FIP, 3.52 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Varvaro: 3.67 FIP, 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
 
thewupk said:
baseball ref WAR maybe. His WAR in fangraphs was 3.5 over that span.
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Difference in preference. I like bWAR for pitchers just because I prefer ERA as opposed to FIP for WAR(I accidentally labeled the wrong WAR in the previous post). But my point still stands, even using fWAR that still equates to a very good reliever.
 
chop2chip said:
Difference in preference. I like bWAR for pitchers just because I prefer ERA as opposed to FIP for WAR(I accidentally labeled the wrong WAR in the previous post). But my point still stands, even using fWAR that still equates to a very good reliever.
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I prefer baseball ref war too for pitchers. But going forward I don't think Johnson will be all that good. Most relievers peak for 2-3 years and are done. I think Vavaro would of been a better option from 2015 forward. Not that it matters much.
 
chop2chip said:
Jim Johnson bWAR from 2011-2013: 6.6 WAR

A three year sample size I would argue, is probably adequate for a reliever. If he didn't implode last year, he's probably getting a decent sized contract this offseason.
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This is a highly inappropriate post.
 
thewupk said:
I prefer baseball ref war too for pitchers. But going forward I don't think Johnson will be all that good. Most relievers peak for 2-3 years and are done. I think Vavaro would of been a better option from 2015 forward. Not that it matters much.
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I agree with that. But it's an inexpensive gamble that he can recapture his old form and fetch a prospect or two in a trade.

But I think the overall point is that Varvaro is essentially a replacement level reliever and even though I liked him as a mop up guy, I don't think it matters even if he's just DFA'd.
 
Dan Kolb

IP 57.2

K/9 6.09

BB/9 4.53

HR/9 0.78

BABIP .372

LOB% 68.3%

GB% 52.8%

HR/FB 11.6%

ERA 5.93

FIP 4.36

XFIP 4.26

Jim Johnson

IP 53.1

K/9 7.09

BB/9 5.91

HR/9 0.84

BABIP .366

LOB% 62.1

GB% 58.1

HR/FB 13.5

ERA 7.09

FIP 5.08

XFIP 4.72

I can hardly contain my excitement that we signed Klobster 2.0.
 
chop2chip said:
Difference in preference. I like bWAR for pitchers just because I prefer ERA as opposed to FIP for WAR(I accidentally labeled the wrong WAR in the previous post). But my point still stands, even using fWAR that still equates to a very good reliever.
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I prefer bWAR as well... for valuing past performance. We talking about predictions, the fWAR number is probably more useful unless you have reason to believe someone can consistently beat their FIP.

But agreed, those are still good numbers for a reliever either way.

chop2chip said:
Also, isn't FIP generally pretty unfair to GB heavy pitchers? It never really ever liked Huddy.
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No. If anything FIP is unfair to flyball pitchers.
 
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