Viz and Teheran listed as top trade candidates

Not to go all off-topic, but since this is being discussed. I will say that I have never bought that Coppy was all that into advanced stats. His past statements and just who he seems to agree most with are not much if at all into that line of thinking. They're all more old-school and he seems to be more that way too. He's just not totally old-school but neither is really anyone else for that matter. To sum it up, Coppy is no Jon Daniels.
 
bravos4evr said:
based on what? your eyes??? your eyes are the least reliable thing as they are subject to confirmation bias. We tend to see what we want to see, forget the good plays by a player we perceive as bad and only see the bad plays....etc I have seen no evidence to see that defense is either under or over rated at this moment as there isn't sufficient data yet, but there will be.

and a defensive play made save pitches, saved pitches are a good thing, yes getting hits costs pitches too and defense can help lower the amount of hits, thus help the pitcher, thus lower his wear and tear, thus a run saved might be worth more than a run scored (especially when combined with what is required to make up said run offensively)

edited to add: not to mention that most fans watch their team only so they don't have enough of a sample of the opposition to gauge the defensive capabilities accurately
Click to expand...

Again, when you get a hit, you are equally costing a pitcher wear and tear. So whatever value you place on saving a pitcher wear and tear on a good defensive play can be equally distributed to a hitter when they get a hit. It's offsetting.

Defensive metrics are not exactly reliable. There is a lot more variability that must be accounted for than offensive stats. A defensive player may go an entire game without an opportunity to make a play on a ball, whereas a hitter is guaranteed 3 or 4 bats a game (or more). And defensive shifts and alignment can't be accounted for either. So a strong rated defender may simply be the benefactor of an organization that scouts other players and their tendencies well.
 
all that IS being taken into consideration with that new tracking thing (I forgot the name of it) as the data is going to be available to everyone soon I think, this should help shim up the margins of defensive stat reliability. I mean, it's never gonna be perfect, but it will be a helluva lot better than just using errors or fielding %. So that's something .
 
nsacpi said:
Maybe they just got unlucky with respect to Markakis and Aybar as far as defense goes.

Right now I would guess they like Inciarte's defense, but might sing a different tune when they trade him.
Click to expand...

Not sure I'm following the connection to my comment. To say it all another way, my sense is that Coppy is more skeptical of defensive metrics than the normal, accepted "skepticism" of those in the SABR community when it comes to their limitations. Also, based on articles and audio from Coppy I've ingested over the years, I think he understands SABR concepts. He's not in the "Get off my lawn!!!" camp when it comes to stats like - say - Joe Simpson. What's his precise justification for saying that defensive stats are overemphasized (or whatever the word was)? I'm not sure.
 
bravos4evr said:
all that IS being taken into consideration with that new tracking thing (I forgot the name of it) as the data is going to be available to everyone soon I think, this should help shim up the margins of defensive stat reliability. I mean, it's never gonna be perfect, but it will be a helluva lot better than just using errors or fielding %. So that's something .
Click to expand...

For sure. And when that is available that will certainly change my stance a good bit.
 
I really think we are gonna keep Teheran for at least another year or two. On April 1st i wouldn't have thought he saw August with the team, but I just don't think anyone wants to pony up D-Backs style and we will keep him.

Vizzy is so gone tho, wouldn't be surprised to see Beckham ,Ogando and Norris gone soon either.
 
bravos4evr said:
I really think we are gonna keep Teheran for at least another year or two. On April 1st i wouldn't have thought he saw August with the team, but I just don't think anyone wants to pony up D-Backs style and we will keep him.

Vizzy is so gone tho, wouldn't be surprised to see Beckham ,Ogando and Norris gone soon either.
Click to expand...

Viz and Norris might be one of the next to go, Coppy said they're working on a trade now but it isn't final. I wouldn't be surprised if that is a Norris or Viz trade.
 
Teheran is the best pitcher on the market and teams know it. They also know we are rebuilding and won't have to take one of there starting mlb players. The Red Sox have the money to cover losing prospects by buying whoever they want. If they keep having rotation problems over the next few weeks and Teheran dominates his next start again then I could see a few teams come knocking and the Red Sox paying more than the DBacks did. We can't tie this trade it has to be a clear win.
 
Viz Ogando frenchy AJP Aybar to some extent mukaki Beckham Norris and I'm probably missing a few are all guys that could easily be moved before the end of the season. And while they won't bring the best return, they will bring quantity. The more of them you send off the more you get back. Hopefully one of whatever you get back sticks
 
nsacpi said:
Yup. This is an example of what I and other economists call an "externality." And I think that baseball (and other fields for that matter) has trouble properly valuing these things. A player who takes a lot of pitches is another example. That player creates an "externality" by driving up pitch count or giving his teammates more of an opportunity to see what a pitcher has that doesn't accrue to his statistical bottom line but has value to the team.

A pitcher who can consistently maintain effectiveness deep into a game is another example because he limits the demands on the rest of the staff or even allows you to carry one fewer pitcher. A bench player who can play a lot of different positions generates a different kind of externality by allowing the team to carry a guy on the bench who is only good with the bat.

A guy like Heyward allows the center fielder to shift toward left. So you see fewer doubles to the left side. I don't think Heyward's defensive stats reflect this value. Same thing with Simmons allowing the third baseman to play closer to the line.

There are two ex Braves that I've always associated with these externalities: Martin Prado and Gregor Blanco.
Click to expand...

In UZR at least this is true. I called it the Andruw Jones effect when I looked into it a few years ago. When you have a truly elite defender it does raise the level of those around them. Many corner outfielders had their best defensive seasons with Andruw either to their left or right. Andruw didn't get credit for their plus play but he almost certainly caused it.
 
thewupk said:
In UZR at least this is true. I called it the Andruw Jones effect when I looked into it a few years ago. When you have a truly elite defender it does raise the level of those around them. Many corner outfielders had their best defensive seasons with Andruw either to their left or right. Andruw didn't get credit for their plus play but he almost certainly caused it.
Click to expand...

I think that was truest when he was next to two stiffs in Sheffield and Chipper.
 
bravos4evr said:
batter K's don't matter if they come with big power and Chavis has the potential for big power. a strikeout is really not much less valuable than any other out , not for batters.
Click to expand...

Nothing has ever come close to suggesting he has anywhere near the power needed to survive his K rates.
 
thewupk said:
In UZR at least this is true. I called it the Andruw Jones effect when I looked into it a few years ago. When you have a truly elite defender it does raise the level of those around them. Many corner outfielders had their best defensive seasons with Andruw either to their left or right. Andruw didn't get credit for their plus play but he almost certainly caused it.
Click to expand...

Chris Johnson had his best defensive season playing next to Simmons. Coincidence?
 
Does defensive metrics take into account when a team holds a runner when Simmons was the cut off man. That was such a huge part of his value.
 
I think this conversation is an illustration of why it's important to be able to use metrics as well as eyes-on info.

Chavis got off to a hot start this year, reportedly after some mechanical changes. Then he was hurt. He hasn't really put up enough PAs for much of a clear picture of this year to develop, although the early signs are encouraging. Bear in mind also that he's repeating the level.

I saw him a ton last year, since he played for my hometown team. That's why quoting nothing other than his ISO as proof that he has "big power" is a little dodgy. His ISO was .030 higher than Devers's last year, and I saw Devers (at 18) hitting the ball out of the park to all fields. One of those guys looked like a guy who was likely to continue to show game power as he rose up the ladder, and one didn't. One number didn't tell the story, but more context did.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top