Viz and Teheran listed as top trade candidates
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
FWIW - age 25 seasons...
Maddux: 263 IP, 232 hits, 3.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.06 FIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Glavine: 246.2 IP, 201 hits, 2.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.06 FIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
Julio: 98 IP, 65 hits, 2.66 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 3.83 FIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
Maddux and Glavine were 25 when they began to break out. Now I'm not saying Julio's going to turn into a HOFer, but is it really that unreasonable to think he's settling into the Pitcher he is at the same time they did in their careers? Given how high the organization has been on him for years, I don't.
Maddux: 263 IP, 232 hits, 3.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.06 FIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Glavine: 246.2 IP, 201 hits, 2.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.06 FIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
Julio: 98 IP, 65 hits, 2.66 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 3.83 FIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
Maddux and Glavine were 25 when they began to break out. Now I'm not saying Julio's going to turn into a HOFer, but is it really that unreasonable to think he's settling into the Pitcher he is at the same time they did in their careers? Given how high the organization has been on him for years, I don't.
It's not. I love that he has increased his K rate and his BB rate is back to 13-14 levels. The homer ball is somewhat of an issue but if you aren't letting people get on base then it's not going to hurt you that much. Julio is a good pitcher and he's still super young.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
If Julio is back into the 92 -94 FB range, then I don't see much of a regression on his numbers for the rest of the year.
I wonder if AJ will ever catch him again.. I almost would like to see it, just to see if there was an issue or not. JT crappy 2015 might have not been JT's doing but just having to throw to a very ****ty catcher..
I wonder if AJ will ever catch him again.. I almost would like to see it, just to see if there was an issue or not. JT crappy 2015 might have not been JT's doing but just having to throw to a very ****ty catcher..
weso1
<B>Clique Leader</B>
I went to fangraphs to try to figure out what's changed with Julio. Looks like the fastball velocity is unchanged, if not a bit lower. The walk rate is back to his pre 2015 levels of course, so that's part of it. He's also throwing his offspeed stuff more, especially his slider. It's possible that this new change in pitch selection philosophy could be why Julio is suddenly missing more bats and hitters are getting less hits.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
This is my thought. meet our price or walk away. We will not meet your price. You need our guy more than we need yours this year.
I would be happy to tell a team like Boston or Texas or Pit, well thanks for calling.. maybe you can find that pitcher in the off season.
You can make the case we're better off waiting until the offseason with a much bigger demographic. The whole reason to trade in July is to take advantage of the market.
HUGE difference between a 3.06 FIP and a 3.83 FIP.
With the exception of the first half of 2015 (when I think he had a knee injury), Teheran has been pretty much the same pitcher since he starting pitching full time in 2013. Julio has always been a guy with a ~3.5-4.0 FIP and a ~3.0-3.5 ERA by outperforming his peripherals by about half a run or more. He has always been an ~8 K/9 guy with ~2 BB/9 and a slightly below average ground ball rate. Essentially he is pitching like he always has, just getting a bit more lucky this year, and beating his peripherals by a larger than normal margin...even for him.
Most pitchers nowadays don't follow an aging curve where they peak at 27 and then decline. Most pitchers now come in and perform at a given level almost immediately for a few years, and then start to decline from that level around their age 27-28 season. I think it's safer to assume Julio is just like most other pitchers and will perform at his typical 3-4 WAR level until starting to decline after 2-3 more season.
It is silly to plan your roster construction around hoping a guy is some exception to the prevailing trends. Teheran is probably not going to follow Arrieta's aging curve, so it would be stupid to plan future roster decisions assuming he will. He is much more likely to follow the typical aging curve of MLB pitchers and perform at his current level into late 20s and then start to decline...perhaps dramatically. Smart teams will plan around the probable scenario occurring.
Bottom line is this: Teheran probably has 2-3 more years remaining at his current (very good) production. If the Braves hope to win next year, keep him. If they are going to punt next year it is probably wise to go ahead and trade him. Regardless, don't commit to him (or any pitcher) long term into his 30s.
Don't mean to get too deeply into the numbers, but aren't you ignoring the fact that Glavine's age 25 and 26 seasons were the best of his career if you're going to focus simply on FIP?
Age 27 - 4.01
Age 28 - 3.51
Age 29 - 3.49
Age 30 - 3.49
Age 31 - 3.96
Age 32 - 3.50
Again, I'm not saying Julio's ever going to become a HOFer, but there's very little reason to think he'll be worse than a solid #3 throughout the remainder of his contract (given health, of course). Since he's getting paid like a #4 even when he makes his most money, doesn't it seem beyond crazy to trade him unless we get EXACTLY what we want since we're only committed to him until he turns 30?
As I mentioned earlier, that contract will always be tradeable - even if the return goes down as he ages. Assuming he has those 2-3 very good years you think he has left, his value has nowhere to go but up - there won't be any SPs available until next year's deadline.
My main point is that we'd be creating a gaping hole if we move him and hope to compete in 2017 or 2018, so I'd only do that if I got what I wanted in return. Meet my price, or I'll keep him - thanks.
I completely agree. I wasn't saying unload Teheran just to unload him because he is at peak value. I think he will continue to be very good for the next 2-3 seasons (barring unforeseen injuries of course). If someone isn't willing to overpay, then keep him. If there is no hitter on the Bregman/Gallo/Moncada level being offered, keep him.
My issues with the current discussion is folks comparing him to guys like Maddux, Glavine and Arrieta. Those comparisons are so outlandish and improbable they contribute exactly nothing to the discussion. The chances of Julio turning into a HoF caliber guy are next to zero, so why even bring those examples up in the discussion? They shouldn't even enter into the calculus of assessing Julio's value.
My stance with Teheran and Viz is directly linked to the progress of Albies and Swanson. If those guys get back on track this year and prove they are ready for a shot at the MLB level next year, the Braves should try to win in 2017 and keep Teheran and Viz. If those 2 guys continue to scuffle then the Braves should punt 2017 and trade Teheran either at the deadline or this offseason. And by trade I still mean getting excellent value.
conalthomas
High School Draftee
He was definitely thought of as a good player to get, but at the time the Braves signed Maddux I remember calling him a right-handed Glavine and a number of people thought that was overstating his (Maddux's) value. He was really good in '93 (obviously - won the Cy Young), but he was great in '94-'96. I don't think most people saw that coming.
conalthomas
High School Draftee
Not a bad strategy.
What a bunch of BS. Maddux was the best pitcher in baseball before he came to the Braves. The Braves and other teams were just outbidding the Cubs for him.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
indeed, this weird revisionist history thing is getting out of hand...
The previous 5 seasons with the Cubs Maddux posted the following WAR: 3.7, 3.7, 5.1, 5.8, 7.0. The dude was an elite arm (Clemens is the only one to post more WAR over that same time)
Tapate50
Well-known member
JESUS.
From 92-2000 his lowest WAR season was 5.6 The rest were 7 or higher. Then in 01 he dropped down to 6.3. And at the end of his career he was posting WAR's in the 2's and 3's in his early 40's. Truly remarkable.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
starting with that 7.0 here is that ten year peak!: 7- 7.5 -7.4 - 7.9- 7.8- 8.0- 7.5- 7.5 - 5.6- 7.2 - 6.3
my bad, eleven years