Viz and Teheran listed as top trade candidates

Enscheff said:
It doesn't matter what term is used to describe Julio. What matters is he is a 3.5 WAR talent that is projected to produce ~14 WAR over the next 4 years at a total cost of $37M. That represents around $75M in surplus value.

The chances of regression are already factored into that 14 WAR projection. That is his 50th percentile outcome, which means there is a 50% chance he does better, and a 50% chance he does worse than 14 WAR. He could be better, he could be worse, or he could get hurt...but that is true for every single player and every single projection system.

This means he is "worth" a prospect whose 50th percentile outcome is a 3.5 WAR player for more than 4 years since those "future potential wins" are inherently more risky and thus less valuable than wins Julio provides today. From the same FG article, Joc Pederson is projected to be worth 12 WAR over his team control years, so he's not worth Julio. Gioloto is projected to be worth about 18 WAR over his team control, so that is the type of player who is a worthy return for Teheran. Bregman at 20 WAR, Benintendi at 18 WAR, Mazara at 20 WAR...those are the types of returns that are "fair". The Braves should be looking to win the trade if it's done at the trade deadline, so it needs to be Benintendi plus something, or Moncada with his projected WAR of ~23.

That's what Teheran is "worth", and FG literally just displayed it in table form. So for them to then turn around and say Teheran is only worth a 45 FV prospect is asinine.
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can't really argue with this.
 
thewupk said:
3.42 ERA in the 2nd half last year. That with a 3.2 era in 2013, 2.89 in 2014, and a 2.96 so far this year. I see that as his level right now. 2.9 to 3.4. Somewhere in that range. First half of last year was due to the knee injury imo. Pretty obvious at this point.
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I agree. I keep bringing that outlier first half up from last year, but it goes completely ignored by most.

That may not be an ace on half the of MLB, but its a damn stud folks. And a stud thats controlled and CHEAP.
 
I don't understand the point of the story. Julio said he wants to pitch for the Braves but would be excited to pitch in the postseason and would do his best for his new team. How is that a story? Isn't that pretty much what every player wants? What am I missing?
 
To me the teams that makes most sense to pay up for Julio are Pittsburgh and KC. Pitt really needs rotation help and they are on a tight budget.

JT's contract is great value for anyone. But he Sox can spend if needed. Pitt needs JT on that deal. I'm just not sure we match up. Sounds more and more like McCutchen is out of Pitt long term b/c of money and likely a rapid decline in performance so Meadows is untouchable. I'm not trading JT for McCutchen either.
 
Russ2dollas said:
To me the teams that makes most sense to pay up for Julio are Pittsburgh and KC. Pitt really needs rotation help and they are on a tight budget.

JT's contract is great value for anyone. But he Sox can spend if needed. Pitt needs JT on that deal. I'm just not sure we match up. Sounds more and more like McCutchen is out of Pitt long term b/c of money and likely a rapid decline in performance so Meadows is untouchable. I'm not trading JT for McCutchen either.
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I think McCutchen will be fine. Not saying I wanna trade JT for him, but dude is only 30. He's had a rough season, but has been picking it up lately and his BABIP is low for him.

If Marte is at all possible, I say we go for it. I'd do Teheran+ for him.
 
Russ2dollas said:
To me the teams that makes most sense to pay up for Julio are Pittsburgh and KC. Pitt really needs rotation help and they are on a tight budget.

JT's contract is great value for anyone. But he Sox can spend if needed. Pitt needs JT on that deal. I'm just not sure we match up. Sounds more and more like McCutchen is out of Pitt long term b/c of money and likely a rapid decline in performance so Meadows is untouchable. I'm not trading JT for McCutchen either.
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I think you're right. Julio's value is due to his affordable contract. A team like the BoSox don't care as much about how much the pitcher costs. They would probably prefer Julio to be on a worse contract so the cost in prospects to acquire him would be lower.
 
thewupk said:
Not in 2016. At least not imo. There are 17 qualified starters right now (including Julio) with a sub 3 era. I'd say anything around 2.6 to 2.7 ERA and below would be considered ace level in todays game.
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And there are 3 active pitchers with a career ERA under 3. Two of them are over 2.9.

I'm not saying Teheran is a consistent 3 ERA pitcher, just that if that's what you do consider him, then you basically consider him an ace. If you think he's a consistent 3 ERA/3.5 FIP guy, then his FIP doesn't matter at that point.

ETA: There are 3 active pitchers with at least 1000 IP who have a career ERA under 3. If Teheran qualified at this point, he would be inside the top 10.
 
smootness said:
And there are 3 active pitchers with a career ERA under 3. Two of them are over 2.9.

I'm not saying Teheran is a consistent 3 ERA pitcher, just that if that's what you do consider him, then you basically consider him an ace. If you think he's a consistent 3 ERA/3.5 FIP guy, then his FIP doesn't matter at that point.

ETA: There are 3 active pitchers with at least 1000 IP who have a career ERA under 3. If Teheran qualified at this point, he would be inside the top 10.
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Actually no I don't consider him an ace since like I said a 3 ERA in 2016 is not the same in 1998. The last part is irrelevant because generally 'ace' pitchers are only aces for a handful of years and fall off. Those that don't go to cooperstown.
 
"Ace" is a subjective term. I don't think Julio is an ace. I think Kershaw, Fernandez, Syndergaard, Arrieta, Sale, MadBum, and a few others are true "aces."

the point about Teheran not being as valuable to a team that can spend money with no worries seems legit. but who are the Red Sox going to go out and buy at the deadline that's been as consistently good as Teheran?
 
Enscheff said:
It doesn't matter what term is used to describe Julio. What matters is he is a 3.5 WAR talent that is projected to produce ~14 WAR over the next 4 years at a total cost of $37M. That represents around $75M in surplus value.

The chances of regression are already factored into that 14 WAR projection. That is his 50th percentile outcome, which means there is a 50% chance he does better, and a 50% chance he does worse than 14 WAR. He could be better, he could be worse, or he could get hurt...but that is true for every single player and every single projection system.

This means he is "worth" a prospect whose 50th percentile outcome is a 3.5 WAR player for more than 4 years since those "future potential wins" are inherently more risky and thus less valuable than wins Julio provides today. From the same FG article, Joc Pederson is projected to be worth 12 WAR over his team control years, so he's not worth Julio. Gioloto is projected to be worth about 18 WAR over his team control, so that is the type of player who is a worthy return for Teheran. Bregman at 20 WAR, Benintendi at 18 WAR, Mazara at 20 WAR...those are the types of returns that are "fair". The Braves should be looking to win the trade if it's done at the trade deadline, so it needs to be Benintendi plus something, or Moncada with his projected WAR of ~23.

That's what Teheran is "worth", and FG literally just displayed it in table form. So for them to then turn around and say Teheran is only worth a 45 FV prospect is asinine.
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And THIS is exactly the reason I wouldn't trade him. Coupled with his contract and clean injury history, he's simply all but impossible to replace. With him as a potential anchor of your rotation through 2020 (whether he's our #1, #2, or #3), you've got so much more financial flexibility with him because he's always going to outperform that contract barring injury - even during the final years. He simply allows you to spend lots of extra money to fill holes elsewhere.

If that means he's "more valuable to the Braves than everyone else", I have absolutely no problem with that.
 
Texas not valuing Teheran very highly? I just washed Martin Perez get shelled by the struggling Cubs (albeit, all of it happened in the 6th inning).
 
hmm.. Stros inked Gurriel (the older one) to a 5 year deal.. Wonder if they plan on using Bregman at 1st and trading AJ.. or trading Bregman? or moving someone to the outfield where they need more help.. Maybe a JT/Ender trade for Bregman +++

I get a sports woody thinking of a Bregman/Swanson/Ozzie/Freeman infield for the next 4 years..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
hmm.. Stros inked Gurriel (the older one) to a 5 year deal.. Wonder if they plan on using Bregman at 1st and trading AJ.. or trading Bregman? or moving someone to the outfield where they need more help.. Maybe a JT/Ender trade for Bregman +++

I get a sports woody thinking of a Bregman/Swanson/Ozzie/Freeman infield for the next 4 years..
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Be nice if Texas loses and Astros tighten it up before deadline. Maybe that encourages the Astros to go for in with bregman for Teheran or the Rangers pony up for Teheran
 
bravesfanMatt said:
hmm.. Stros inked Gurriel (the older one) to a 5 year deal.. Wonder if they plan on using Bregman at 1st and trading AJ.. or trading Bregman? or moving someone to the outfield where they need more help.. Maybe a JT/Ender trade for Bregman +++

I get a sports woody thinking of a Bregman/Swanson/Ozzie/Freeman infield for the next 4 years..
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I'd probably trade just about any combination of players on our big league roster for Bregman at this point. I don't see it happening, though.

My guess is the Astros end up playing Bregman or one of their other IF as a super utility player including DH. With the DH there are definitely enough spots on the diamond to player Correa, Altuve, Bregman and Gurriel regularly.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
hmm.. Stros inked Gurriel (the older one) to a 5 year deal.. Wonder if they plan on using Bregman at 1st and trading AJ.. or trading Bregman? or moving someone to the outfield where they need more help.. Maybe a JT/Ender trade for Bregman +++

I get a sports woody thinking of a Bregman/Swanson/Ozzie/Freeman infield for the next 4 years..
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If they deal JT they almost have to deal Inciarte as well. A defense first player (Inciarte/Simmons) on a rebuilding team that has a near ready replacement (Mallex/Swanson) is a no brainer to trade.
 
Bowman tweeted that Viz is available tonight and that no lingering skin irritation... Made me think if the Braves made this 'injury' up to explain away Viz's most recent struggles. If Viz comes out strong the next week or so, then his little hiccup could be explained away as a skin aliment that he tried to pitch through..

/tin foil hat activate!!
 
bravesfanMatt said:
hmm.. Stros inked Gurriel (the older one) to a 5 year deal.. Wonder if they plan on using Bregman at 1st and trading AJ.. or trading Bregman? or moving someone to the outfield where they need more help.. Maybe a JT/Ender trade for Bregman +++

I get a sports woody thinking of a Bregman/Swanson/Ozzie/Freeman infield for the next 4 years..
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I'd be all over Bregman. If they didn't want Teheran then I'd try to entice them with a package built around Newcomb.
 
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