WEDNESDAY MINORS THREAD 7/5: Medlen Earns Win

[50PoundHead]

hit tool gets underrated sometimes...though Albies has more than that going for him

The thing with the hit tool is that it's really difficult to translate from minor league performance to major league performance. Major league pitching is on a much higher plain than it is in the minors and is so consistently.l Fielding gets better and more consistent as well, which is going to cut down a few more hits. Just fewer gimmes at the big league level.

 

[Russ2dollas]

The thing with the hit tool is that it's really difficult to translate from minor league performance to major league performance. Major league pitching is on a much higher plain than it is in the minors and is so consistently.l Fielding gets better and more consistent as well, which is going to cut down a few more hits. Just fewer gimmes at the big league level.

defense is better (except for the braves) and the shifts are better (except for the braves).

I think the question for Albies is if he's going to be BA only. IIRC he doesn't walk a ton. Relatively aggressive. So is he going to be Peraza and have his OBP basically the same as his BA? Will he have enough pop to push that OPS north of 750 in MLB? If he's not a HR threat then I wouldn't expect a lot of walks....no need to do so b/c worst case scenario is a single.

Most of what I've read about Albies suggests he'll get a ton of doubles and maybe some triples b/c of his hitting ability, strength and Speed.

But is anyone predicting him to better Phillips' 280/330/420 as a 21 y/o rookie? To be a star he's going to have to hit close to 50 doubles, right?

 

[smootness]

defense is better (except for the braves) and the shifts are better (except for the braves).

I think the question for Albies is if he's going to be BA only. IIRC he doesn't walk a ton. Relatively aggressive. So is he going to be Peraza and have his OBP basically the same as his BA? Will he have enough pop to push that OPS north of 750 in MLB? If he's not a HR threat then I wouldn't expect a lot of walks....no need to do so b/c worst case scenario is a single.

Most of what I've read about Albies suggests he'll get a ton of doubles and maybe some triples b/c of his hitting ability, strength and Speed.
But is anyone predicting him to better Phillips' 280/330/420 as a 21 y/o rookie? To be a star he's going to have to hit close to 50 doubles, right?

I wouldn't project him to walk a ton, but he has good plate discipline. His BB rate has been clearly better than Peraza's was in the minors, though Peraza's did improve his second time through AAA last year. Still, I would expect Albies' BB rate to be at least double Peraza's, even with the lack of HR power.

And Albies has better pop than he gets credit for, and it has steadily improved. Peraza's best ISO beyond A-ball was his .094 last year in his second time through AAA. Albies currently has a .156 ISO, the best of his minor-league career, after posting the best of his career last year in AA. So his power is increasing even as he's jumping levels. Peraza's ISO has remained steady in the majors at just under .090, so I think you can project Albies for at least a .150ish ISO.

As a 21-year-old, I have no idea, who knows how soon he'll show his promise. But I think he can be a .315/.360/.470 guy in his prime.

 

[jpx7]

I think he means he'll buy their shares of stock in Albies.

This

Seemed pretty clear to me, actually.

 

[Enscheff]

I wouldn't project him to walk a ton, but he has good plate discipline. His BB rate has been clearly better than Peraza's was in the minors, though Peraza's did improve his second time through AAA last year. Still, I would expect Albies' BB rate to be at least double Peraza's, even with the lack of HR power.

And Albies has better pop than he gets credit for, and it has steadily improved. Peraza's best ISO beyond A-ball was his .094 last year in his second time through AAA. Albies currently has a .156 ISO, the best of his minor-league career, after posting the best of his career last year in AA. So his power is increasing even as he's jumping levels. Peraza's ISO has remained steady in the majors at just under .090, so I think you can project Albies for at least a .150ish ISO.

As a 21-year-old, I have no idea, who knows how soon he'll show his promise. But I think he can be a .315/.360/.470 guy in his prime.

Folks need to remember the most important stat with regards to Albies: 20.

He is 20 years old. When I was 20 I was 155 lbs and couldn't bench press more than 185 lbs.

Most 20 year old ball players are still in college.

Other current top prospects who are 20 years old like Eloy and Robles are still in A/AA.

When Altuve was 20 he was posting an .805 OPS in A/A+. He exploded as a 21 year old in A/AA with a 1.000 OPS...Albies isn't even 21 yet.

Albies has Peraza outclassed in every way imaginable. It isn't even remotely an accurate comparison between the two players.

I compare Albies to Altuve with about half the HR power. That's an .800 OPS guy with plus defense at 2B and 20+ SBs per year. Easily a 3-4 WAR guy.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Folks need to remember the most important stat with regards to Albies: 20.

He is 20 years old. When I was 20 I was 155 lbs and couldn't bench press more than 185 lbs.

Most 20 year old ball players are still in college.

Other current top prospects who are 20 years old like Eloy and Robles are still in A/AA.

When Altuve was 20 he was posting an .805 OPS in A/A+. He exploded as a 21 year old in A/AA with a 1.000 OPS...Albies isn't even 21 yet.

Albies has Peraza outclassed in every way imaginable. It isn't even remotely an accurate comparison between the two players.

I compare Albies to Altuve with about half the HR power. That's an .800 OPS guy with plus defense at 2B and 20+ SBs per year. Easily a 3-4 WAR guy.

Watch it.. I can't keep all the Pozzies from liking you.

 

[smootness]

Folks need to remember the most important stat with regards to Albies: 20.

He is 20 years old. When I was 20 I was 155 lbs and couldn't bench press more than 185 lbs.

Most 20 year old ball players are still in college.

Other current top prospects who are 20 years old like Eloy and Robles are still in A/AA.

When Altuve was 20 he was posting an .805 OPS in A/A+. He exploded as a 21 year old in A/AA with a 1.000 OPS...Albies isn't even 21 yet.

Albies has Peraza outclassed in every way imaginable. It isn't even remotely an accurate comparison between the two players.

I compare Albies to Altuve with about half the HR power. That's an .800 OPS guy with plus defense at 2B and 20+ SBs per year. Easily a 3-4 WAR guy.

Yeah, I agree. Peraza was also young for his age, though a year younger than Albies at most stops. But yes, Albies is clearly better across the board.

 

[Enscheff]

Watch it.. I can't keep all the Pozzies from liking you.

Being realistic doesn't mean you're pozzy or neggy.

Calling Albies a top prospect who projects to be an all star at his peak is being realistic.

Calling TD a viable option at 2B based off new prospect shine and silly optimism due to a couple good weeks is being a pozzy.

It's hard for most to realize the difference. They are the same ones who were down on Albies when he was "struggling" earlier this season. The same ones pimping Riley at the start of the season. The same ones pimping Kemp and Adams when they were hot. The same ones who wanted to send Swanson to AAA after his bad April.

You know, the ones that don't know ****.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Folks need to remember the most important stat with regards to Albies: 20.

He is 20 years old. When I was 20 I was 155 lbs and couldn't bench press more than 185 lbs.

Most 20 year old ball players are still in college.

Other current top prospects who are 20 years old like Eloy and Robles are still in A/AA.

When Altuve was 20 he was posting an .805 OPS in A/A+. He exploded as a 21 year old in A/AA with a 1.000 OPS...Albies isn't even 21 yet.

Albies has Peraza outclassed in every way imaginable. It isn't even remotely an accurate comparison between the two players.

I compare Albies to Altuve with about half the HR power. That's an .800 OPS guy with plus defense at 2B and 20+ SBs per year. Easily a 3-4 WAR guy.

that is more in line with what most ppl say about albies who have seen him in person.

those that doubt seem to put his floor at Peraza.

Bryce Harper was better at 20

I'm excited to see him. I am not so sure I want to see him before 21 though...he seems to be too good and too high up to even pretend we could keep him to age 22 or 23 in the minors.

I want to trade Phillips and let Comargo play 2B for a while. Comargo and Jace can handle it next year for a month or two before we bring up Albies to maximize his control. But my guess is Albies is up with roster expansion this year, starts the year at 2B next year and the Braves justification is that we'll extend him the winter after his second year b/c we only signed him for 300K.

 

[Enscheff]

that is more in line with what most ppl say about albies who have seen him in person.

those that doubt seem to put his floor at Peraza.

Bryce Harper was better at 20

I'm excited to see him. I am not so sure I want to see him before 21 though...he seems to be too good and too high up to even pretend we could keep him to age 22 or 23 in the minors.

I want to trade Phillips and let Comargo play 2B for a while. Comargo and Jace can handle it next year for a month or two before we bring up Albies to maximize his control. But my guess is Albies is up with roster expansion this year, starts the year at 2B next year and the Braves justification is that we'll extend him the winter after his second year b/c we only signed him for 300K.

Leaving Albies in AAA for 2-3 weeks next year allows them to control his age 21-27 seasons, and gives the Braves 6.9 years of control over him.

If he really is a 4 WAR guy at peak, that age 27 season will be worth at least $32M, likely more after inflation. Even if they extend him, that age 27 season will cost them much more than if it were already controlled via arb.

It would be beyond stupid to call him up before then and lose that age 27 season.

Having said that, I fully expect the Braves to do it either after the deadline or to start 2018. They haven't done many thing optimally, and I don't expect them to suddenly start.

 

[Southcack77]

Leaving Albies in AAA for 2-3 weeks next year allows them to control his age 21-27 seasons, and gives the Braves 6.9 years of control over him.

If he really is a 4 WAR guy at peak, that age 27 season will be worth at least $32M, likely more after inflation. Even if they extend him, that age 27 season will cost them much more than if it were already controlled via arb.

It would be beyond stupid to call him up before then and lose that age 27 season.

Having said that, I fully expect the Braves to do it either after the deadline or to start 2018. They haven't done many thing optimally, and I don't expect them to suddenly start.

Would it be optimal to allow Albies to enter his age 27 season (final year of control under optimal strategy) without extending him?

 

[Enscheff]

Would it be optimal to allow Albies to enter his age 27 season (final year of control under optimal strategy) without extending him?

Folks talk about extensions like they are some done deal. Like all teams have to do is present the guy with some guaranteed money and he will accept. Even if they do an extension, they will still be paying more for his age 27 season.

If he is controlled via arb, and he produces as expected, his age 27 will cost about $20M.

If he isn't controlled through age 27, and the Braves extend him, they will be paying about $30M to buy that FA year.

This is not a hard concept to grasp. Sure, you guys say it's only $10M difference, but remember, they made the same $10M mistake with Swanson. Now it's $20M wasted by making the exact same mistake twice.

An extra $10M per year is the difference between getting Colon to fill the rotation, or getting an actual MLB pitcher to fill the rotation.

I realize you will unflinchingly back the FO in whatever they do, but wasting resources like this is not how modern FOs operate.

 

[mfree80]

Folks talk about extensions like they are some done deal. Like all teams have to do is present the guy with some guaranteed money and he will accept. Even if they do an extension, they will still be paying more for his age 27 season.

If he is controlled via arb, and he produces as expected, his age 27 will cost about $20M.

If he isn't controlled through age 27, and the Braves extend him, they will be paying about $30M to buy that FA year.

This is not a hard concept to grasp. Sure, you guys say it's only $10M difference, but remember, they made the same $10M mistake with Swanson. Now it's $20M wasted by making the exact same mistake twice.

An extra $10M per year is the difference between getting Colon to fill the rotation, or getting an actual MLB pitcher to fill the rotation.

I realize you will unflinchingly back the FO in whatever they do, but wasting resources like this is not how modern FOs operate.

Your incessant hatred of the FO and everything they have done, are doing, and may do in the future borders on compulsive. We all know how you feel about them. Don't you get tired of typing the same thing over and over?

Perhaps you would be happier as a fan of the Astro's, White Sox, or one of the other well managed teams in Baseball.

They are not perfect, have made some mistakes, but have also done some really good work. Let's give them some credit for perhaps having some idea about what they are doing.

 

[Enscheff]

Your incessant hatred of the FO and everything they have done, are doing, and may do in the future borders on compulsive. We all know how you feel about them. Don't you get tired of typing the same thing over and over?

Perhaps you would be happier as a fan of the Astro's, White Sox, or one of the other well managed teams in Baseball.

They are not perfect, have made some mistakes, but have also done some really good work. Let's give them some credit for perhaps having some idea about what they are doing.

And your defense of all the moves they make borders on blind worship. Almost cult-like.

I would just ignore me if criticizing the FO bothers you that much. It will make things better for both of us.

 

[mfree80]

And your defense of all the moves they make borders on blind worship. Almost cult-like.

I would just ignore me if criticizing the FO bothers you that much. It will make things better for both of us.

Perhaps you didn't read my last sentence. Not exactly blind worship or defense of all their moves.

(They are not perfect, have made some mistakes, but have also done some really good work. Let's give them some credit for perhaps having some idea about what they are doing.)

 

[striker42]

To rekindle an old discussion. Interesting to see Puk, Groome and Pint rated above Anderson. My recollection is that those three were the high ceiling pitchers in last year's draft. This is based on the pre-draft analysis that I saw.

IMO, Anderson is too high on that list. I would put him in the 70's. The high walk rate scares me.

As for Anderson being ranked below all of those guys, I think that's fair. Anderson doesn't have the elite upside of the likes of Puk, Groome, and Pint but has the high risk innate to any prep arm. And again, the BB rate. If Anderson had a BB rate half of what it is right now then I think he shoots up the list.

In hindsight, I wish we'd have grabbed Puk.

 

[Preacher]

IMO, Anderson is too high on that list. I would put him in the 70's. The high walk rate scares me.

As for Anderson being ranked below all of those guys, I think that's fair. Anderson doesn't have the elite upside of the likes of Puk, Groome, and Pint but has the high risk innate to any prep arm. And again, the BB rate. If Anderson had a BB rate half of what it is right now then I think he shoots up the list.

In hindsight, I wish we'd have grabbed Puk.

Meh, I'd hold off on Puk until we see him face some more guys his age, he's 22 and just now made it to AA. He's walked 9 guys in his first 13 AA innings and has a 6.08 ERA there. He definitely has two big time pitches, but he was pitching against guys younger than him to start the year.

 

[Preacher]

IMO, Anderson is too high on that list. I would put him in the 70's. The high walk rate scares me.

As for Anderson being ranked below all of those guys, I think that's fair. Anderson doesn't have the elite upside of the likes of Puk, Groome, and Pint but has the high risk innate to any prep arm. And again, the BB rate. If Anderson had a BB rate half of what it is right now then I think he shoots up the list.

In hindsight, I wish we'd have grabbed Puk.

TD had a very good start to the year, I do wonder if the move to 3B has something to do with his struggles.

 

[Enscheff]

IMO, Anderson is too high on that list. I would put him in the 70's. The high walk rate scares me.

As for Anderson being ranked below all of those guys, I think that's fair. Anderson doesn't have the elite upside of the likes of Puk, Groome, and Pint but has the high risk innate to any prep arm. And again, the BB rate. If Anderson had a BB rate half of what it is right now then I think he shoots up the list.

In hindsight, I wish we'd have grabbed Puk.

I preferred some college hitter...Lyle Kewis...or something similar.

I think I heard rumors he posted a .915 OPS immediately after being drafted. Then he hurt his knee. Upon returning, he has posted a .989 OPS in Rk ball as he is knocking the rust off.

These are just rumors, but I think he would have been a good pick.

 

[smootness]

I preferred some college hitter...Lyle Kewis...or something similar.

I think I heard rumors he posted a .915 OPS immediately after being drafted. Then he hurt his knee. Upon returning, he has posted a .989 OPS in Rk ball as he is knocking the rust off.

These are just rumors, but I think he would have been a good pick.

I wanted Lewis, too, but it's tough to be upset about having Anderson, especially knowing that Wentz came with him.