Where are we on the expected win curve?

[nsacpi]

Fair enough, for what it's worth though, I expect Folty to be a 3+ WAR guy next year and take over as the defacto "ace" starting in 2018.

He's looked great at times this year. Could happen. With the young guys I've been cautious in my projections. But that's where the difference makers are going to have to come from. I think our philosophy has to be to use trades and free agency to fill in the gaps, while relying on the farm system to provide the stars.

My list of players who could be 3+ win guys (or have already done it) includes: Freeman, Teheran, Inciarte, Swanson, Albies, Smith, Folty, Wisler, Newcomb, Sims. This is just among the ones in the upper minors or majors. Obviously not all of them will accomplish this and not all of them have equal chances to be stars. But these are the guys who will be the difference makers the next few years. Further down the road there will be reinforcement from Allard, Soroka, Acuna and some of the guys we drafted and signed this year.

 

[auyushu]

My list of players who could be 3+ win guys (or have already done it) includes: Freeman, Teheran, Inciarte, Swanson, Albies, Smith, Folty, Wisler, Newcomb, Sims. This is just among the ones in the upper minors or majors. Obviously not all of them will accomplish this and not all of them have equal chances to be stars. But these are the guys who will be the difference makers the next few years. Further down the road there will be reinforcement from Allard, Soroka, Acuna and some of the guys we drafted and signed this year.

I think this is a good list of our possible 3+ WAR guys, though I don't think Wisler has any chance of that without some major changes. I just can't see a guy with such a poor K rate and low groundball % rate having that sort of success, it's nearly unheard of. On the flip side if Justin Peterson continues as he has at AA this year and turns some of those doubles into HRs he could sneak into the 3 WAR discussion as well.

I really wouldn't be surprised if Folty turned into a 3 WAR TOR guy or if he continued to do exactly what he has this year and stayed a back of the rotation guy for his career. I do think we have a really good chance that at least one of Folty, Newcomb, or Sims turns a corner and becomes a nice TOR piece by the end of next season. Who the heck knows which one it will be, as all three are so up and down between dominating and having complete meltdowns.

I really wish Acuna hadn't had his injury this year, he was looking great. Hopefully he can come back strong and start next year in high A regardless.

 

[Oklahomabrave]

I think this is a good list of our possible 3+ WAR guys, though I don't think Wisler has any chance of that without some major changes. I just can't see a guy with such a poor K rate and low groundball % rate having that sort of success, it's nearly unheard of. On the flip side if Justin Peterson continues as he has at AA this year and turns some of those doubles into HRs he could sneak into the 3 WAR discussion as well.

I really wouldn't be surprised if Folty turned into a 3 WAR TOR guy or if he continued to do exactly what he has this year and stayed a back of the rotation guy for his career. I do think we have a really good chance that at least one of Folty, Newcomb, or Sims turns a corner and becomes a nice TOR piece by the end of next season. Who the heck knows which one it will be, as all three are so up and down between dominating and having complete meltdowns.

I really wish Acuna hadn't had his injury this year, he was looking great. Hopefully he can come back strong and start next year in high A regardless.

I have been REALLY encouraged by Folty this year. The past couple starts when he makes a mistake he responds so much better. And I think someone has got in his ear and has him working on different secondary pitches in counts he's uncomfortable in. In his best starts he has been great with his slider. Now his past 2-3 he seems to be using his curve more and more. They are forcing him to develop command of his CB and CH so he isn't a two pitch pitcher.

Also, he only started throwing a slider when he came to the Braves. He was really a one pitch pitcher before us.

 

[auyushu]

He's definitely shown great improvement with his stuff and learning how to pitch. I think at this point he needs to just get it together a bit more mentally and avoid collapsing when he runs into trouble. In his bad starts he always seems to run into that one really bad inning. If he can change that and refine his offspeed stuff a bit more the skys the limit for him.

 

[nsacpi]

Where are we on the expected win curve for 2017?

We start with 48 wins (what a team of replacement players gets you) and add as follows:

Catcher McCann (2.0)
1B Freeman (4.5)
2B Albies (1.5)
SS Swanson (1.5)
3B Freese (2)
LF Kemp (1)
CF Inciarte (2.5)
RF Markakis (1.5)

Total from lineup: (15.5) Running total: 63.5 (48+15.5)

Teheran (3.5)
Folty (1.5)
Wisler (1.5)
Gant (1)
Fifth start (0.5)

Total from rotation (8) Running total 71.5

Bench (2) plus Pen (4): 6

Grand total 77.5

As I currently see it we are a 75-80 win team in 2017.

What updates would I make in light of the events of the past two months?

1) I would push up Inciarte to 3.5 expected WAR in 2017 from my earlier 2.5.

2) I think our fourth starter will be a veteran free agent with an expected WAR of 2.0 rather than Gant with an expect WAR of 1.0. Someone like Cashner or Nova is who I have in mind.

3) Fifth starter will be another FA but slightly lesser quality. Someone like de la Rosa or Morton. Expected WAR of 1.5, an improvement from the 0.5 I was estimating.

4) I think a bench of Flowers, Mallex, Peterson, KJ and Francouer will get us an extra 0.5 wins over what I thought in August.

Total upgrade from August: 3.5.

On the downside I no longer expect a signing for third and expect 1 WAR from Adonis.

So the net is 2.5, which gets us to 80 wins.

Note in spite of hot second halves from Freeman, Kemp, Swanson and Markakis, I have not changed my estimates of what we will get from those players/positions. Why not there but at center with Inciarte. With Inciarte I see a bit more of a multi-year trend that was confirmed by his great second half (though of course I'm not projecting him to continue playing at the second half level). ymmv

 

[yeezus]

What updates would I make in light of the events of the past two months?

1) I would push up Inciarte to 3.5 expected WAR in 2017 from my earlier 2.5.

2) I think our fourth starter will be a veteran free agent with an expected WAR of 2.0 rather than Gant with an expect WAR of 1.0. Someone like Cashner or Nova is who I have in mind.

3) Fifth starter will be another FA but slightly lesser quality. Someone like de la Rosa or Morton. Expected WAR of 1.5, an improvement from the 0.5 I was estimating.

4) I think a bench of Flowers, Mallex, Peterson, KJ and Francouer will get us an extra 0.5 wins over what I thought in August.

Total upgrade from August: 3.5.

On the downside I no longer expect a signing for third and expect 1 WAR from Adonis.

So the net is 2.5, which gets us to 80 wins.

Note in spite of hot second halves from Freeman, Kemp, Swanson and Markakis, I have not changed my estimates of what we will get from those players/positions. Why not there but at center with Inciarte. With Inciarte I see a bit more of a multi-year trend that was confirmed by his great second half (though of course I'm not projecting him to continue playing at the second half level). ymmv

Swanson was on a 3.4 WAR pace this year. I don't think he'd be two full wins below that if he plays all season. JMO.

 

[Enscheff]

What updates would I make in light of the events of the past two months?

1) I would push up Inciarte to 3.5 expected WAR in 2017 from my earlier 2.5.

2) I think our fourth starter will be a veteran free agent with an expected WAR of 2.0 rather than Gant with an expect WAR of 1.0. Someone like Cashner or Nova is who I have in mind.

3) Fifth starter will be another FA but slightly lesser quality. Someone like de la Rosa or Morton. Expected WAR of 1.5, an improvement from the 0.5 I was estimating.

4) I think a bench of Flowers, Mallex, Peterson, KJ and Francouer will get us an extra 0.5 wins over what I thought in August.

Total upgrade from August: 3.5.

On the downside I no longer expect a signing for third and expect 1 WAR from Adonis.

So the net is 2.5, which gets us to 80 wins.

Note in spite of hot second halves from Freeman, Kemp, Swanson and Markakis, I have not changed my estimates of what we will get from those players/positions. Why not there but at center with Inciarte. With Inciarte I see a bit more of a multi-year trend that was confirmed by his great second half (though of course I'm not projecting him to continue playing at the second half level). ymmv

I think 3-4 for Inciarte is reasonable, and I have no reservations pegging Swanson at 2-3. Someone will undoubtedly regress or get injured and blow these projections though.

I still see this as a 75-80 win team, but a serious upgrade at 3B and a couple additions to the rotation that are more than scrap heap veterans could push them to a real contender for .500.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

What updates would I make in light of the events of the past two months?

1) I would push up Inciarte to 3.5 expected WAR in 2017 from my earlier 2.5.

2) I think our fourth starter will be a veteran free agent with an expected WAR of 2.0 rather than Gant with an expect WAR of 1.0. Someone like Cashner or Nova is who I have in mind.

3) Fifth starter will be another FA but slightly lesser quality. Someone like de la Rosa or Morton. Expected WAR of 1.5, an improvement from the 0.5 I was estimating.

4) I think a bench of Flowers, Mallex, Peterson, KJ and Francouer will get us an extra 0.5 wins over what I thought in August.

Total upgrade from August: 3.5.

On the downside I no longer expect a signing for third and expect 1 WAR from Adonis.

So the net is 2.5, which gets us to 80 wins.

Note in spite of hot second halves from Freeman, Kemp, Swanson and Markakis, I have not changed my estimates of what we will get from those players/positions. Why not there but at center with Inciarte. With Inciarte I see a bit more of a multi-year trend that was confirmed by his great second half (though of course I'm not projecting him to continue playing at the second half level). ymmv

I think Swanson is up 1 point
I think McCann/Flowers split gets us to 3 so +1
Adonis/Ruiz can get us 2.. not sure if that is +1 or the same as you
Kemp could be higher, but not going to project
Bench is right, even with Flowers taken out
Pen I would add 1.5. I have not hid the fact that I think the pen will be dominate. and this year was a 4.1 fwar
+.5 for starters.. (folty)

So I think that pushes us to 84 wins.

 

[nsacpi]

Swanson was on a 3.4 WAR pace this year. I don't think he'd be two full wins below that if he plays all season. JMO.

Its a tough call on what the relative weights for his Southern League and major league numbers to give. I settled on something like 50-50. His major league equivalents from the Southern League suggested he was not quite ready, to quote one of the baseball men in our FO.

 

[Chico]

I can't see us only adding Mac, KJ, Frenchy and 2 back-end starters this offseason. We will be a lot more active than that. We won't "go for it", but we'll make some significant changes and there will be turnover.

 

[nsacpi]

I still see this as a 75-80 win team.

That's where I am too. But I decided to try to split hairs and see what the last couple months mean. For me it moves us from the middle of the 75-80 win range to the top of it. But there is enough forecast error here that we should really be talking about five win ranges. And I would stick with the 75-80 win range. If Lady Luck smiles on us I could see us winning 85 games and contending for a wild card. The Giants and Mets got in this year with 87. The Cards fell short with 86.

 

[nsacpi]

I can't see us only adding Mac, KJ, Frenchy and 2 back-end starters this offseason. We will be a lot more active than that. We won't "go for it", but we'll make some significant changes and there will be turnover.

I don't think we'll go after someone with a QO (assuming the system remains in place). Which means the main way to increase payroll is to go after someone like Kemp or McCann with a significant contract but not much surplus value. We could try to after someone with significant surplus value but I'm not sure we are at a stage of the rebuild where we want to start trading away significant prospects or younger players.

 

[Chico]

I don't think we'll go after someone with a QO (assuming the system remains in place). Which means the main way to increase payroll is to go after someone like Kemp or McCann with a significant contract but not much surplus value. We could try to after someone with significant surplus value but I'm not sure we are at a stage of the rebuild where we want to start trading away significant prospects or younger players.

I definitely do not see us going after a player with a QO, but I definitely see some trades being made. I'm sure we've identified our core players and have also identified who we want to sell high on and buy low on.

 

[chop2chip]

I still see this as a 75-80 win team, but a serious upgrade at 3B and a couple additions to the rotation that are more than scrap heap veterans could push them to a real contender for .500.

I agree, but with a caveat that there is some additional upside given that we have some high upside guys in the upper reaches of the minors who could exceed expectations and replace some replacement level talent, e.g. Rio replacing Garcia, Newcomb / Sims making the roto, Albies over Peterson, etc.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

So why is 81 wins so hard to imagine. The 2nd half did happen.. if you look back at our last 81 games we are 41-40. And we got better from there.

And since Kemp was added, our run difference was 281 for and 272 against (+9). with a 31-25 record. I don't think it is hard to imagine with perceived up grades we will be .500 team or better. I am sure guys will regress, but I also think our pitching will be better overall.

 

[mfree80]

So why is 81 wins so hard to imagine. The 2nd half did happen.. if you look back at our last 81 games we are 41-40. And we got better from there.

And since Kemp was added, our run difference was 281 for and 272 against (+9). with a 31-25 record. I don't think it is hard to imagine with perceived up grades we will be .500 team or better. I am sure guys will regress, but I also think our pitching will be better overall.

Excellent post Matt. The numbers gotten by looking at the whole season are much different than the ones from the 2nd half. While every team has hot and cold streaks, the team was different in the 2nd half. It was not just a hot streak.

Now, I believe it is safe to assume improvement from the 2nd half (.500) team to next years team. Try using the 2nd half as the baseline rather than the whole year.... then assume the improvements you are projecting.

I get that there will be some regression in a few spots, but Matt's point is correct. I think we can expect better than .500 next year because we will see improvements to a team that was .500 in the 2nd half this year.

 

[nsacpi]

So why is 81 wins so hard to imagine. The 2nd half did happen..

81 is not hard to imagine if you think the team is a 75-80 win team. I think the 2nd half does justify upgrading expectations for 2017. The question is how much relative to a couple months ago.

 

[nsacpi]

the team was different in the 2nd half. It was not just a hot streak.

It was a combination of some changes and a hot streak. Disentangling the two factors is the challenge.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

81 is not hard to imagine if you think the team is a 75-80 win team. I think the 2nd half does justify upgrading expectations for 2017. The question is how much relative to a couple months ago.

I think we are an 80 -85 win team, with a +/- 5 margin for error. So high end is 90ish wins for unexpected yet welcomed performances and low end is 75ish for unexpected not welcomed performance.. But my absolute middle is 83 wins.

 

[nsacpi]

I think we are an 80 -85 win team, with a +/- 5 margin for error. So high end is 90ish wins for unexpected yet welcomed performances and low end is 75ish for unexpected not welcomed performance.. But my absolute middle is 83 wins.

my middle is 80. i'm looking forward to the team competing for something besides a draft pick.