Are really comparing actual outcomes to interpretations of outcomes?
Will the real Jason Heyward please stand up?
- Thread starter Millwood1Hitter
- Start date
Are really comparing actual outcomes to interpretations of outcomes?
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
We're comparing interpretations of value. Any stat when you put value on it there's an issue with interpretations. Who's to say that a walk has an exact value? So on so forth. Not to mention even stats like batting average have human interpretation of their outcomes. In 2013 there was 2760 errors or so in baseball (I'm not doing the math of adding up each team's total so it's based on averages, could be higher could be lower don't have the time nor do I care enough) if you want to say that every single one of them was justly called not to mention that every hit was justly called a hit. I can sell you shares in the Brooklyn Bridge.
You are stretching the argument way too wide. There is so much more interpretations when it comes to defensive stats it is even worth discussing. That will hopefully change with field/fx. You know this but as always you like to be argumentative (in a good way and I enjoy it).
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
My point is the use of "WAY" we don't know how far either stat is from the truth. THere's noise in every single statistic out there. Carpe spouting off about knowing something is "WAY" more accurate than another is foolish because no one really knows. What if field f/x comes out and says UZR or DRS basically hit the nail on the head?
I'm all for more and more advanced metrics. The closer we can get to the true value of a baseball player the more informed we are. It's my belief that we're now closer than ever, it's Carpe's belief that we're further than ever because even though Noah's Ark exists to this day, a semi-accurate defensive stat is shenanigans.
sturg33
I
I was factoring in a lengthy clean up process
Much of that is due to his rookie year; which was 4 years ago. In the 3 years since: .333 wOBA and 111 wrc+
Plus, if you are projecting for the next 3 years, how do you predict their offensive production?
This got me good.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Right on both counts. Those heat maps are very telling. Jason has work to do on the inside pitch. The amount of tinkering he does suggests to me that he knows it.
As much as I think Joe's hitting analyses come from a guy who was a lifetime .173 hitter, I think he's right about Jason. He needs to get his hands inside the baseball.
If he can successfully pull the pitch that is six inches outside - and I've seen him do it a couple times here recently - his swing path is wrong. He can't hit anything the other way, and he can't hit an inside pitch - he ties himself up.
I think the problem is the dive. He's closing himself up. Look at those year-over-year pictures. Somebody pounds the inside corner he's got no shot.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
You can't have doubts if he even loves baseball, though.
sturg33
I
Matt Williams has those doubts...
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Sort of: Williams has doubts if Harper even loves baseball too much.
I like how you take out Heywards rookie year but deem it acceptable to include 2011 when he had a sore shoulder all year. In 2012 and 2013 Heyward had a WOBA of 348 and WRC+ of 121. So no, much of that is not due to his rookie year.
Or we can stick with facts and not cherry pick. 119 coming into this year and 121 the last two. As is I think Heyward will produce somewhere in that area. As he gets closer to his prime I think those numbers will climb.
And Harper was 137 last year, which should climb as he gets closer to his prime. Which hitter is better?
Harper is a better hitter and I've never argued against that however as a baseball player Heyward is better. He does everything well. Harper does not.
sturg33
I
You oringinally asked if Heyward is a better player than Harper. I think he is.
You have now changed the question to which hitter is better. And Harper will likely be better, provided he can avoid running into walls. It is really cool though when his helmet always flies off his head.
Yeah, bc your point was the difference in hitting wasn't that great. Which seems pretty ridiculous.