It's because if a pitcher like Newcomb figures it out, he becomes a force.
Williams perez
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
It's because if a pitcher like Newcomb figures it out, he becomes a force.
chop2chip
Well-known member
You do realize that Williams is at 3.65 BB/9for his career right? For perspective, Folty is at 2.85 BB/9 for his career.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
What perspective am I supposed to get that I don't understand? Yes, I can see that after a minor league career with solid command that Perez's walk rate at the major league level is 3.65 and as I've pointed out that's not horrible and I s trending in the right direction.
I didn't use Folty as a comp because he does seem to be trending in the right direction after four years over 4.0 and even 5.0 in the minors. So he would be an example of a power pitcher trending in the right direction. I don't have a problem using ML innings to see if he can cure his gopher problem, he seems to be coming along and he's not walking guys.
What I am saying is premature and poor strategy is to remove or ignore pitchers like Perez who are having some success at the major league level but don't have the supposed pedigree and cache that Sims and Newcomb have and bringing up guys with big arms who don't throw strikes. I don't think that is that hard to comprehend, nor is it particularly revolutionary.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
Perez doesn't have much future as a MLB starter, guys who post his K/BB ratios posting 4.50 FIP's even with a 6.3% HR/FB rate simply can't sustain success that way. (I explained why using stats above) he is an org depth guy who might work as a swingman/6th starter on an avg team. He has nowhere near the ceiling or future projection of guys like Newcomb , Sims or Blair.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
False. Throws strikes, gets outs. Two of other three don't.
I prefer my stats to yours.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Put differently: you keep waiting for Lucas Sims. I'm sure there are plenty of people bewildered by the lost projectability of George Lombard.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Gov, I am more in your camp concerning pitchers as you likely know given our past agreeing on numerous pitchers, though occasionally we see a pitcher differently as everyone does. I don't just go by the numbers with pitchers nor fastball velocity, I think we see too much of extremes in those areas today. That is why someone like me can like someone like Perez and also be very high on someone like Sims. I like Sims more than Folty and Newcomb because I like his stuff better than them and see him as the most likely of the three to get it together and take off. The kid has a great make-up from all reports I've heard. Further, I supported taking Wood over Sims in the draft both were taken because I knew Wood was the best bet to make it and also be in MLB a lot sooner to help the Braves. But I was very excited to see Sims still around for our second draft pick that year and loved that we took him. That was a great pick just as the Wood pick was IMO.
That said, I do not like trading players like Simmons for high risk prospects like Newcomb and a likely reliever like Ellis that also has had issues of walking too many at times. I am fine with drafting such prospects and picking them up for other prospects or less talented and proven players but when you trade a player like Simmons (who's the best defender in MLB) you do so for someone that isn't such a risk.
Lastly, I think Perez could be better in MLB as he seems to have improved along the way as far as his pitches. He's even showed more velocity at times this year too. That and his control will be key moving forward as the kid has a good heavy sinker, esp. when he has that extra velocity as he has in a few games this year.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
Mine has a consistent set of results that lends itself to better pitchers long term. Your bias is blinding you to the facts, and the stats you asserted turned out to not even apply to Perez (based on performance relative to league average ).
But for the sake of argument let us look at the data for starting pitchers over the last 3 seasons(2014-2016) with at least 300 innings pitched:
of the 96 qualifying starters over that period, last in K/9 is Buehrle with a 4.72 (Perez presently sports a career 5.33 which puts him 90th)
of the 96 qualifying starters Ubaldo Jimenez is last in BB/9 with a 4.42 (Perez sports a career 3.65 which would make him 90th)
of the 96 qualifying starters Perez has a career ERA of 4.52 a career xFIP of 4.70 and a dead avg career HR/FB of 10.8% and a career BABIP of .300
He mostly closely resembles the following pitchers in production per 100 innings : Kyle Kendrick, John Danks, Jered Weaver and Jeremy Gutherie. which wouldn't be awful if we were talking about their best seasons, but over the last 350-430 innings each that group of 4 has totaled 4.3 WAR between 2014 to the present....... hardly stellar comps.
He might turn out to be a serviceable fifth starter on a bad to mediocre team, but he's not the kind of guy you want to build around. There are plenty of Williams Perezes in the world.
EDIT: If you just used Perez's present season, his 4.42 K/9 would be 97th on my above list, his BB/9 would be 60th his HR/FB% would be 2nd to the lowest, and his BABIP would be 2nd highest. This does not point to a guy who is pitching all that well. There is a reason his xFIP is 4.42.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
all prospects are risks (especially arms) if you are severely risk averse, baseball trades are generally always gonna make you squirm. Plenty of "sure things" never pan out at all, or turn into Gordon Beckham or Dustin Ackley.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
No, that's a false dichotomy. There are different types of risks and obviously I am not talking about risk of injury here. I'm sure you know there's a reason Newcomb is called a high risk prospect by numerous prospect evaluators like Jim Callis and other pitching prospects are not considered such high risks. Further, I wasn't really in favor of trading Simmons at all but if I do it needed to be for more proven players and in saying so I wasn't limiting the return to simply less proven prospects either. For example, Blair is a lot less a risk IMO than Newcomb and had we gotten him in a package with either Inciarte type or Swanson type, yea even just Blair and one of those two, then I'd liked that trade for Simmons a lot better and yes there is less risk of bust all around in such a trade IMO.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Hope you're right about Sims, '76, and agree with most of what you're saying. And you've distilled it pretty well, I don't like Newcomb - more specifically, Newcomb's control. And somebody back a couple pages started with the "get Perez out of here and let's get (Sims and) Newcomb up here" and it set off two of my buttons.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
bold mine...we took Sims with our first pick of the 2012 draft, did you mean you were happy to see Wood still around later?
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
I wasn't much of a fan of the Simmons trade either (mostly for selfish entertainment reasons) BUT, it made sense on a value level. IF, Newcomb can be a #3/4 starter fr 4-5 years, he will provide excess vale over Simmons alone. Anything above that will be lagniappe.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
I disagree with "getting Perez out of here and get sims/newcomb up here" more due to the type of season we are going to have, development and player control reasons. I think we need to let the guys stay down until sept. at the earliest and allow guys like Perez...etc eat the innings on a bad squad. No sense on rushing players now.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
yep, I just flipped that mixing up the two. I had both as my top two picks and just switched there names not realizing my mistake. What I meant there was I wanted both and honestly had a hard time choosing between the two for the first pick. When we picked Sims first I very happy to still get Wood with the second round pick. I thought both were great picks too.
That was also the rare draft I got two of my favorites picked early back to back.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
agree, if Sims even ends up with Mike Minor's career, it's still good value out of the first round.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
I disagree, you don't trade Simmons who is the Ozzie Smith of this generation in a sense (better than Ozzie defensively IMO and of course Ozzie didn't have Simmons arm) for someone that might end up a " #3/4 starter" and likely reliever in Ellis. Fangraphs even said the return for Simmons was light and surprisingly so. Simmons is special and like when the Padres traded Smith to the Cardinals, I see this trade likely blowing up in our faces in a similar manner in the long run.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
"blowing up in our faces" is awfully dramatic. Simmons is one of the best defenders of all time true, but his bat has failed to develop into even close to avg. If his defense slips... well he becomes Erick Eybar.
i still thought the trade was light, but that doesn't mean we won't get excess value out of it. The players we received should not be sneered at because you don't like the trade, it isn't their fault.
i still thought the trade was light, but that doesn't mean we won't get excess value out of it. The players we received should not be sneered at because you don't like the trade, it isn't their fault.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
He's no where close to becoming Aybar, that would be more than a huge slip on defense for him and isn't likely at all. In fact, that sounds "awfully dramatic" to say IMO. Further, I don't think it's "awfully dramatic" to consider a trade blowing up in our faces if Newcomb busts or becomes a number 4 starter in MLB while Ellis becomes a reliever as expected. While at the same time Simmons continues to be great on defense and when he declines but is still great his offense will likely improve off-setting it as is often the case (see fangraph's piece on similar players in that regard, though I'd argue Simmons isn't as easy to compare that way being so special on defense at a position where defense is so important).