Grading Waldrep's Stuff

Enscheff

Well-known member
Waldrep has thrown enough FAs, FSs, and SLs to rank them against other pitchers. His command/execution has been pretty awful, so let's see if the stuff is good enough to even worry about waiting for him to "learn how to pitch".

FA: 95.8 mph (115 of 562), 4.0" Arm-side (493 of 592), 13.8" Vertical (421 of 592)

This movement profile is disappointing. He comes over the top, as evidenced by the very small amount of arm-side run (similar to Ian Anderson), but the low spin rate of 2161 (443 of 592) doesn't give the FA much rise. I'm not sure why the Braves allow a guy with such low spin to throw a FA as his only fastball, but we've seen it a lot lately where guys very clearly should be focusing on a 2 seamer....but they aren't. This is not a good pitch on it's own, and will rely on location and playing off the split to be effective. We are already starting to see why Waldrep has a low margin for error when relying on a FA that simply doesn't move like an MLB FA.

FS: 85.9 mph (59 of 90), 8.1" Arm-side (69 of 90), 2.2" Vertical (28 of 90, lower is better)

While this pitch doesn't seem to have an impressive movement profile, it has a remarkably low spin rate of only 690 (3 of 90). The only pitches with less spin currently in the sport are Waldron's knuckleball at 250, and 2 other splitters at 520 and 668. Is that good? Who knows, but it does produce 2" more of arm-side run than the other comparable splitters. This is a very unique pitch, and learning how to use it as a weapon rather than a novelty will be the key to his success.

SL: 87.0 mph (118 of 469), 1.7" Glove-side (401 of 469), 1.5" Vertical (215 of 469, lower is better)

This is not a very good pitch, and like everything else, the spin rate is low at 2196 (395 of 469). It drops a little, but doesn't move across the plate much at all...which is the whole point of a slider. That's literally while they are called sliders.

Overall: The data shows us a guy with low spin FA and SL, and a no spin splitter that doesn't seem to translate into notable movement. I'm not sure what the Braves were scouting when they popped him in the first round, but it certainly wasn't the usual pitch metrics most teams seem to be looking for with amateur arms. He has good velocity, but he can't spin the ball to create much movement. It's hard to suggest a sinker since it will look very similar to the split, and his breaking ball doesn't move enough in the opposite direction to be an obvious pitch off the split either. Unless he figures out how to weaponize that no spin split, it's hard to see a path forward unless the command/execution becomes elite.

This arsenal is disappointing, and I hope he figures something out.
 
Literally every write up of our pitching prospects is copy/paste outside of Strider. Low spin fastball, with one stand out pitch along with a bunch of mediocre to bad offerings. Even Fried has a bad fastball. Why can’t we draft guys with major league fastballs? It makes things so much easier.
 
I wonder if his stuff was in any way affected if he has some sort of elbow impingement (or worse, injury)- he’s apparently hitting the DL with abnormal elbow soreness but just fyi - his stuff may well be what Enscheff noted but it’s worth a revisit when he returns healthy.
 
I wonder if his stuff was in any way affected if he has some sort of elbow impingement (or worse, injury)- he’s apparently hitting the DL with abnormal elbow soreness but just fyi - his stuff may well be what Enscheff noted but it’s worth a revisit when he returns healthy.

Yeah, he’s on the IL with elbow inflammation
 
I wonder if his stuff was in any way affected if he has some sort of elbow impingement (or worse, injury)- he’s apparently hitting the DL with abnormal elbow soreness but just fyi - his stuff may well be what Enscheff noted but it’s worth a revisit when he returns healthy.

Came here to wonder that out loud, bc the split was not the table setter I had expected to see
 
It's 2 starts dude, and quite clearly he was dealing with some sort of injury yesterday.

I've watched him since his college career began at southern Miss. When we took him, I wasn't thrilled, but got sold on the hype of the splitter. I feel like my initial impression was right. I would love him to end up being great, but this data by enscheff sorta confirms that the arsenal really isn't there.
 
I realize fans are going to make excuses whenever they can, but in his first start he spun the FA at 2192, then 2133 in his last start. The slider spun at 2202 and 2192. It's not like the injury caused any measurables to change meaningfully, so the stuff was mediocre in both games.

Perhaps he was injured in both starts? Either way, blaming poor stuff on an elbow injury isn't exactly making anything better.
 
I realize fans are going to make excuses whenever they can, but in his first start he spun the FA at 2192, then 2133 in his last start. The slider spun at 2202 and 2192. It's not like the injury caused any measurables to change meaningfully, so the stuff was mediocre in both games.

Perhaps he was injured in both starts? Either way, blaming poor stuff on an elbow injury isn't exactly making anything better.

Can he be a reliever that just throws splitter after splitter?
 
Pretty disappointing profile. Been getting Ian Anderson vibes from the start from him. At this point, it's difficult to understand what the Braves saw in him. I'm ready to be proven wrong.
 
Pretty disappointing profile. Been getting Ian Anderson vibes from the start from him. At this point, it's difficult to understand what the Braves saw in him. I'm ready to be proven wrong.

There shouldn't be any excuse for teams to overvalue and overdraft a guy with poor metrics if that player came from a high D-1 program like Florida (or really any in the SEC or ACC outside of Missouri). All those schools have Trackman or something similar. Spin rates, vertical/horizontal movement, and accurate velocities should be available for anyone under draft consideration.
 
Pretty disappointing profile. Been getting Ian Anderson vibes from the start from him. At this point, it's difficult to understand what the Braves saw in him. I'm ready to be proven wrong.

Does his splitter not grade out really well? Virtually everyone that has discussed him has talked that pitch up.
 
There’s nothing wrong with drafting a guy like him late in the 1st round. It was a good pick. He’s got plus velo and a plus splitter, look at the silly swings he gets on those splitters. The issue is development. Maybe tweaking the arm slot so the fastball plays up better or improving the extension on his pitches. Helping polish his command, identify a pitch that compliments what he currently possesses. I could see right away in his 1st start this stuff wasn’t going to work and that’s without any access to data.
 
Does his splitter not grade out really well? Virtually everyone that has discussed him has talked that pitch up.

Maybe…but then you basically have Ian Anderson: great change-up, but straight fastball with inconsistent command, and so-so breaking ball. So his ceiling is MOR. It’s not that those aren’t useful, but that is disappointing for a first round pick.
 
Maybe…but then you basically have Ian Anderson: great change-up, but straight fastball with inconsistent command, and so-so breaking ball. So his ceiling is MOR. It’s not that those aren’t useful, but that is disappointing for a first round pick.

A successful MOR is definitively not disappointing for a late first-round pick. And it's only slightly disappointing for a very early first-round pick, like Ian Anderson.

The big questions are: Can Anderson consistently return to that form? Can Waldrep consistently develop that form? I'm much more optimistic regarding the latter.
 
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