2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
- Start date
sturg33
I
If you're convinced in the inefficiency, you absolutely should
I don't care enough to look at the numbers, but my first instinct is that when looking at actual spending in the Presidential race, R's probably have spent a lot more up to this date than the Harris/Biden regime has. Biden wasn't able to campaign as much before dropping out and Harris has only been the face of the ticket for about 3 weeks.
If this election follows the last 2 elections, Kamala is going to need to poll a lot better than +3% nationally in order to win. She will likely need to poll at +5 or better in PA, MI, and WI to pull those states. She will need at least a 2% polling lead in GA and AZ to pull those states blue again.
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There seems to be some funky business going on over at fivethirtyeight, with their polling projections. Currently they have Kamala with a .2 lead in GA, despite almost every single poll except for 1 being either tied or having Trump leading by +2 or more. Only 1 poll in GA they have reported has Kamala with a lead and it's only +1.
Maybe it's a mistake. Maybe their calculations factor in national polls averages too. I don't know. But it seems disingenuous to display that Harris has a lead in GA at the moment considering what the GA polls are actually telling us.
Maybe it's a mistake. Maybe their calculations factor in national polls averages too. I don't know. But it seems disingenuous to display that Harris has a lead in GA at the moment considering what the GA polls are actually telling us.
Have to make the steal look believable. Fortunately, GA is getting off their ass and making real election reform. But unless they clean out the trash in Fulton I’m afraid we will see more shenanigans on Election Day.
acesfull86
Well-known member
Banking on Harris to bomb the debate is a risky strategy. While she had that moment during the primary where Tulsi carved her up, she more than held her own against Pence in the VP debate. She’ll also come into this one well prepared, and since she isn’t suffering from dementia, she shouldn’t have the same issues Biden had sticking to the script.
Trump will win comfortably regardless of what happens.
After the convention bump Harris support will crater.
White non college educated voters will never vote for her and she runs behind Biden in all minority groups. Truly historic awful candidate.
One good thing of regardless who wins the debate is that her real thoughts on issues will be exposed to the world by Trump and/or her.
I don't think the moderates know what she is yet.
Doesn’t matter what she is. They don’t care. They just hate Trump. Polls shouldn’t even be the close. Trump should be dominating In every and any swing state.
Tell us where Trump hurt you poor baby.
No republican has had to go through what Trump is having to do right now as a presidential candidate.
The media has always been left of center but now that are acting as spox for the democrats. Even W didn't have to deal with this.
acesfull86
Well-known member
The question will be whether Trump is disciplined enough to stay on message and really hammer her for her extreme views and the failures of the Biden/Harris administration. Or will he be so erratic and say/do something that becomes the lead story post-debate, while Harris’ terrible views become an afterthought. Kind of like in the first debate where he wasn’t all that great, but it went under the radar because the headline story was Biden’s infirmity.
He will need to stay focused and lay off the personal attacks. He's not a great debater but all he has to do is show the world what she is.
It isn't just on Trump either. Kamala has to defend her former liberal policies in CA, defend the current Administration that is one of the least popular on record, and try to explain how her new policy is different.
Americans are deeply unhappy with the current administration. She is part of that and she still DEFENDS the current administration. It's going to be hard to convince Americans it is going to be any different or get any better with her at the helm. Another point that Trump gets to hit her with, is that she has had 4 years to help implement policy changes and only now does she plan makes changes if she becomes POTUS? She has the influence to get things like no tax on tips on the floor for vote right now. Why isn't she doing it?