acesfull86
Well-known member
You’re acting like a 51-49 in PA and 51-49 GA therefore Trump = 100%, but it doesn’t
2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
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You’re acting like a 51-49 in PA and 51-49 GA therefore Trump = 100%, but it doesn’t
sturg33
I
Let me offer you a calculus
Trump + D congress = possibility of price controls and government mandated health care
Trump + R congress = possibility of price controls and government mandated health care
Harris + D congress = possibility of price controls and government mandated health care
Harris + R congress = no
possibility of price controls and government mandated health care
sturg33
I
The odds of winning both of those is ~25%
chop2chip
Well-known member
That’s probably true, but I wouldn’t think the probabilities are independent.
No, not 100% but if those are both showing a +1 then Trump should be around the 50-50 or 51-49 mark. 51-48 Harris isn't really possible. Trump should be the favorite.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
only if they are independent events
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
beat me to it
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are correlated. But the sunbelt states somewhat less.
If I was a strategist for either campaign I would spread my chips across sunbelt and blue wall states. Both campaigns have multiple paths to victory, although Harris has somewhat more.
I have a hunch that the states with the two-maga formation (notably Trump-Robinson and Trump-Lake) might be the keys for a Harris win. I think that in those two states the Niki Haley voters might vote D in larger numbers.
If I was a strategist for either campaign I would spread my chips across sunbelt and blue wall states. Both campaigns have multiple paths to victory, although Harris has somewhat more.
I have a hunch that the states with the two-maga formation (notably Trump-Robinson and Trump-Lake) might be the keys for a Harris win. I think that in those two states the Niki Haley voters might vote D in larger numbers.
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sturg33
I
I would think GA and PA are pretty independent of each other but perhaps not
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It's lower for sure than MI/PA and WI/PA but not zero either.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I tend to agree with you. Nascpi’s theory ^ seems correct
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It's lower for sure than MI/PA and WI/PA but not zero either. I'm talking about how they break relative to the polls. We've had two presidential elections where Trump has significantly outperformed the polling in the Blue Wall states.
Michigan is usually a little more Democratic than WI and PA. So Harris might have a little wiggle room there. But I don't think she is ahead in PA and WI even though that's what the polls say.
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acesfull86
Well-known member
At the margins being talked about, I’m not sure how much any of this really matters…52-48 is really just a toss up, regardless of who has the 52 in a given snapshot
And the most obvious answer to the apparent inconsistencies between the state races and national race is that the groups of bettors aren’t the same. On Polymarket, $972 million has been bet on who’ll be elected president. There’s only been $6.2 million bet on who’ll win Pennsylvania.
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Where has Trump said anything about mandated health care?
Harris as president will continue to allow a porous border that will eventually change the demographics of this country to the point where we will never win another national election. Those already here will become citizens with full voting rights
More unconstitutional executive orders
She'll have the ability to replace our older conservatives on the SCOTUS with more fruitcakes.
Just no.
sturg33
I
You missed where trump said he wants to have free IVF for anyone who wants it?
As for your other points, both of these candidates.are horrific. Our country is ****ed either way.
But at least, with Commie Kamala, she will have a unified opposition trying to stop her.
With Trump, you and thethe and the rest of the cult will go to bat for every socialist thing he forces down our throats. And there is no going back when you cede that ground
Either way, we are ****ed
I've always thought you somewhat of a crank since arguing with you in the anti-cop thread 10 years ago but now you have totally lost it, man.
Seriously, TDS has totally ****ed you up in the head.
sturg33
I
That's a very substantive argument you've made there
Next you're gonna call me "mentally disturbed, having a midlife crisis, who needs to have to children" because I committed the sin of criticizing Donald Trump for proposing things like abortion protections, price controls, and government mandated Healthcare, not to mention his bragging about how he did everything right during covid with the lockdowns and printing.
Silly me for being so ****ed up in the head
Trump is a flawed character but the fact that you think that both characters are the same does make you a loon.