Will the real Jason Heyward please stand up?

But again (and again and again and again), the opponents scout and continue to scout guys for their possible weaknesses. It's a game of on-going adjustments and all I'm saying is he doesn't appear to be making many (if any).

2012 was a great and healthy year for him. They had 2010 and 2011 to scout him and he did fine. 2013 he was ok then heated up when moved to leadoff and then got the broken jaw.

This season has been a struggle but too early to tell if it's him or league.
 
Bryce has a slash line of .273/.353/.476...how would you keep that in the minors?

Do people really project 21 year olds to be superstars at that age or future superstars?

It depends. If bringing him up a year early causes him to have a peak of .875 OPS when leaving him down helps him to reach 1.000 level, then yes you would.

That's all I'm asking, if we're stunting development here. No doubt both Harper and Heyward were good enough to be above average major leaguers early on.
 
But the valuation of that .500 varies. If it's 2 singles, that's not the same as 2 doubles. Or 2 singles and a walk. Then you slide to OPS which on the OBP value values hits equally to walks, and on the SLG side double counts hits as every hit registers a base which factors into OBP. You can slide to wOBA which is the best offensive rate stat that we have. But Linear weights are not 100% perfect. The value of a walk is not necessarily the same every single year and a hundredth or thousandth of a point move may not have a gigantic effect but it's screwing up the valuation.

You don't understand defensive stats. I get it. Instead of blurting out that they're invalid, maybe you should just ignore them (which you do already) and not make ignorant statements about them. No stat that applies value is perfect. And no valuation is even remotely close to perfect. If you think that based on what you want to believe that you can accurately prescribe value, then you're a fool because you're certainly not a better judge than advanced metric.

Except that you doesn't matter how you value offensive stats. They are still based on definitive stats at their core. Which is NOT the case with defensive stats.

Defensive stats themselves are BASED off arbitrary numbers that are assigned based on how that particular analyst's opinion of play.
 
2014:
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2013:
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2012:
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2011:
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2010:
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It depends. If bringing him up a year early causes him to have a peak of .875 OPS when leaving him down helps him to reach 1.000 level, then yes you would.

That's all I'm asking, if we're stunting development here. No doubt both Harper and Heyward were good enough to be above average major leaguers early on.

Right. But, I really don't get the argument that leaving a player in AA or AAA for an extra year in leau of seeing better pitching; would make a player better.
 
You put stock in pitching and offensive numbers when they can have a huge luck factor tied to them in BABIP. That's why you take what actually happened on the field. Sometimes bad hitters have good years and vice versa. It doesn't mean we don't take what actually happened that year and see how valuable they were.

But it doesn't matter about the true talent of a player when you are valuing past performance. Past performance cannot be changed, therefore you can assign actual value to that performance.

Chris Johnson is clearly not a .330 hitter. But there is no doubt he was extremely valuable offensively last season. We have hard evidence to support that. What happens in the future has no bearing on CJ's 2013 performance.
 
Except that you doesn't matter how you value offensive stats. They are still based on definitive stats at their core. Which is NOT the case with defensive stats.

Defensive stats themselves are BASED off arbitrary numbers that are assigned based on how that particular analyst's opinion of play.

No they're not entirely. Sure there is a degree of opinion, but the evaluation is based off of results.
 
2012 was a great and healthy year for him. They had 2010 and 2011 to scout him and he did fine. 2013 he was ok then heated up when moved to leadoff and then got the broken jaw.

This season has been a struggle but too early to tell if it's him or league.

You're missing the point. The adjustments being made by the opposition are on-going so the counter-adjustments have to be on-going.
 
Right. But, I really don't get the argument that leaving a player in AA or AAA for an extra year in leau of seeing better pitching; would make a player better.

There's less pressure in the minors. More opportunities to gain confidence, although in Harper's case I don't think confidence has ever been an issue.

I'm not really arguing that they should have been left down. Just trying to find an explanation more than anything.

Jeffery Franchise could have benefitted from another year or two in the minors. We'll never know if he could have learned some patience down there. It's pretty obvious though that he didn't reach or even approach his ceiling.
 
Have you not been reading the last 13 pages of this thread? lol

It's ok to be concerned, but he hasn't looked so overwhelmed that it's to be worried about.

I still believe in getting a leadoff guy to move him to 2nd where he's done the most damage.

I want to make it clear I'm not sentencing him to death. But he's got some work to do.
 
But it doesn't matter about the true talent of a player when you are valuing past performance. Past performance cannot be changed, therefore you can assign actual value to that performance.

Chris Johnson is clearly not a .330 hitter. But there is no doubt he was extremely valuable offensively last season. We have hard evidence to support that. What happens in the future has no bearing on CJ's 2013 performance.

I agree. So why care that it takes a few years of defensive data to see how good a player truly is. It doesn't change what happened that year.
 
Jeffery Franchise could have benefitted from another year or two in the minors. We'll never know if he could have learned some patience down there. It's pretty obvious though that he didn't reach or even approach his ceiling.

Doubt that would've been the case. The Braves always told him to keep doing what he was doing. Once they started trying to get him to go the other way and take walks, then his power disappeared and it seems like it messed up his batter psyche.
 
Right. But, I really don't get the argument that leaving a player in AA or AAA for an extra year in leau of seeing better pitching; would make a player better.

It all depends on the development arc of the player. I don't think it would have made much difference with Heyward, because he was a fairly polished player, or Francoeur, who resisted all polishing.

In fact, I'm torn on AAA in general. I don't think a whole lot of development goes on in AAA anymore, especially for hitters.
 
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