Tankathon draft pick watch

bravesfanMatt said:
never mind. Miami and San Fran do bounce around a little. But again, it seems the Braves if they can maintain their position or improve it, would be at least a top 7 pick.. but much more likely to be higher..
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The top 6 are lottery picks. Every non playoff team gets thrown into the lottery except those that aren't eligible. Ater the 6 lottery picks are drawn it goes in order of worst record with the ineligible teams being put in at pick #10. So right now the Braves have the 2nd worst record of eligible teams. If by some miracle the White Sox and Braves aren't picked in the lottery then they will get the 7th and 8th picks respectively.

At this point. The Braves need to try and catch the Nats so they can increase their odds by a few % points.
 
thewupk said:
The top 6 are lottery picks. Every non playoff team gets thrown into the lottery except those that aren't eligible. Ater the 6 lottery picks are drawn it goes in order of worst record with the ineligible teams being put in at pick #10. So right now the Braves have the 2nd worst record of eligible teams. If by some miracle the White Sox and Braves aren't picked in the lottery then they will get the 7th and 8th picks respectively.

At this point. The Braves need to try and catch the Nats so they can increase their odds by a few % points.
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Aren't the Nats exempt?
 
Hudson2 said:
Aren't the Nats exempt?
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They are. But they still effect the % of getting the top draft pick by currently being 1 of the 3 worst teams. The 3 worst teams, without any exemptions, will all have the same odds. When you get removed those odds get distributed to the other teams. If the Braves can catch the Nats their odds will be the same as the White Sox.
 
thewupk said:
They are. But they still effect the % of getting the top draft pick by currently being 1 of the 3 worst teams. The 3 worst teams, without any exemptions, will all have the same odds. When you get removed those odds get distributed to the other teams. If the Braves can catch the Nats their odds will be the same as the White Sox.
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Awesome thanks for clearing that up.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
wait, how is that.. I thought ROY got you a comp pick after round 1... which is still very good for the pool.
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It does. The Royals ended up with pick 25 this year for Witt finishing top 3 while being on the pre-season top 100 list.

So we have a strong chance for a top 3 pick currently. Then the pick for Drake. And then our 2nd round pick (which should fall in the 40-50 range).
 
Carp said:
It does. The Royals ended up with pick 25 this year for Witt finishing top 3 while being on the pre-season top 100 list.

So we a strong chance for a top 3 pick currently. Then the pick for Drake. And then our 2nd round pick (which should fall in the 40-50 range).
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yes, the draft could be huge next season if everything breaks the way it should.
 
These are the current probabilities of getting the top pick. I'm not sure where other ideas for other values are coming from:

1 CHI White Sox 40-69 .367 11.5 Won 1 6-4 25.39%
2 Atlanta 45-62 .421 17.5 Lost 2 2-8 20.39%
3 Pittsburgh 47-62 .431 18.5 Won 5 8-2 15.39%
4 Athletics 48-63 .432 18.5 Won 2 6-4 11.54%
5 Baltimore 50-59 .459 21.5 Lost 1 6-4 8.46%
 
It's confusing to the say the least, but anything in the top 5 is good. MLB draft is not like NFL draft. There's still speculation and projecting for every pick and no slam dunks. Then you have situations like this year where the first two guys were likely underslot picks and the best players went 3rd/4th.
 
Enscheff said:
These are the current probabilities of getting the top pick. I'm not sure where other ideas for other values are coming from:

1 CHI White Sox 40-69 .367 11.5 Won 1 6-4 25.39%
2 Atlanta 45-62 .421 17.5 Lost 2 2-8 20.39%
3 Pittsburgh 47-62 .431 18.5 Won 5 8-2 15.39%
4 Athletics 48-63 .432 18.5 Won 2 6-4 11.54%
5 Baltimore 50-59 .459 21.5 Lost 1 6-4 8.46%
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Because the 3 worst records in baseball all have the same probability of getting the top pick. That changes once some of those teams start becoming ineligible. The Braves catching the Nats will improve their odds to same amount as the White Sox.
 
thewupk said:
Because the 3 worst records in baseball all have the same probability of getting the top pick. That changes once some of those teams start becoming ineligible. The Braves catching the Nats will improve their odds to same amount as the White Sox.
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So the Rockies, Nats and ChiSox all have the same shot at the top pick, but since the Rockies and Nats aren't eligible only the ChiSox have a better chance than the Braves.

If this is the case then being worse than the Nats should give the Braves equal chances as the ChoSox.
 
Nerfherders said:
It's confusing to the say the least, but anything in the top 5 is good. MLB draft is not like NFL draft. There's still speculation and projecting for every pick and no slam dunks. Then you have situations like this year where the first two guys were likely underslot picks and the best players went 3rd/4th.
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Getting the top pick isnt so much about the player we can get but the bonus pool we can get for it. We could save like 3 million from that pick depending on who we go with and use those savings later picks. If we somehow got the top pick plus an extra pick if Baldwin wins ROY we would really be cooking with a large bonus pool. I think we would also get a large bonus pool for international signings so we could really set up the farm system for years to come in one year.
 
Stupid Ozuna. If not for him we'd probably be tied with the Nats. I know it feels good to win but at this point winning only hurts us.
 
The Braves may be the only non-contending team in history of MLB who didn't understand how to navigate the deadline to help improve their draft position.

Instead, they tanked Ozuna's trade value, and now that he's healthy they will tank their draft position. Well played.
 
Enscheff said:
The Braves may be the only non-contending team in history of MLB who didn't understand how to navigate the deadline to help improve their draft position.

Instead, they tanked Ozuna's trade value, and now that he's healthy they will tank their draft position. Well played.
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while I agree completely with this... I still don't see a world where a competent GM could sell Ozuna as the .850+ monster that he has been for the last year and a half versus the torn hip slacker he was trying to be in June. He could have set conditions on Ozuna passing medicals... I don't think AA even tried to sell anything at the deadline. Same goes for Iggy.. easy to point to his horrible slider contributing to the not sustainable HR/FB rate...

He wasted two players that should have netted a return, only to now have them decrease the return in the draft. This is a huge black eye on AA... Unless the team goes on some historical run along with historical collapses from about 3 teams that sneak the Braves into the playoffs... this is about as bad of a year as a GM can have not named Coppy.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
while I agree completely with this... I still don't see a world where a competent GM could sell Ozuna as the .850+ monster that he has been for the last year and a half versus the torn hip slacker he was trying to be in June. He could have set conditions on Ozuna passing medicals... I don't think AA even tried to sell anything at the deadline. Same goes for Iggy.. easy to point to his horrible slider contributing to the not sustainable HR/FB rate...

He wasted two players that should have netted a return, only to now have them decrease the return in the draft. This is a huge black eye on AA... Unless the team goes on some historical run along with historical collapses from about 3 teams that sneak the Braves into the playoffs... this is about as bad of a year as a GM can have not named Coppy.
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I’m still keeping faith Anthopoulos can salvage his last calendar-year of bad decisions this offseason; he’s earned that with prior performance, and I don’t think he became an idiot overnight.

But the deadline inactivity was definitely strike-one (sadly coming after an encouraging draft). Not firing & competently replacing Snitker would constitute a second strike. And then a dud offseason would be a death-knell whiff-out.
 
jpx7 said:
I’m still keeping faith Anthopoulos can salvage his last calendar-year of bad decisions this offseason; he’s earned that with prior performance, and I don’t think he became an idiot overnight.

But the deadline inactivity was definitely strike-one (sadly coming after an encouraging draft). Not firing & competently replacing Snitker would constitute a second strike. And then a dud offseason would be a death-knell whiff-out.
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yes, I liked the draft as well.. he deserve another off season, but man I warry.. after defending coppy to the hilt and then looking back and seeing how stupid I was..
 
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