Economics Thread

[thethe]

As a long time supporter of tariffs, it sucks to see any hope of them ever being used wisely set on fire because Trump decided to implement them by putting on a blindfold and throwing darts.

But when it’s all said and done baseline tariffs will be implemented and countries/foreign suppliers will be happy to pay them at no additional cost to consumers.

 

[Garmel]

Any graph that shows the price of goods were going down during Biden's time can be safely ignored. That's a bunch of bullshit.

 

[thethe]

Did Trump removing tarrifs from beef, coffee, etc help reduce prices on those products?

Isolated instances have different factors I agree 100%. But that’s not your argument and never was.

 

[sturg33]

Isolated instances have different factors I agree 100%. But that’s not your argument and never was.

Sturg: tarrifs add costs to consumers

Thethe: no they don't

Sturg: when he removed tarrifs did it reduce costs?

Thethe: yes, but that wasn't your argument

 

[Jaw]

Did Trump removing tarrifs from beef, coffee, etc help reduce prices on those products?

I mean freaking coffee. We handed out exemptions for things where US suppliers actually exist, but had a damn coffee tariff like there are coffee orchards across the Midwest struggling to compete. Just stupid.

 

[acesfull86]

Please explain how you said prices wouldn’t go up for consumers because of tariffs.

Prices have gone up in those products that are directly impacted by tariffs. That’s distinct from general inflation.

 

[sturg33]

I mean freaking coffee. We handed out exemptions for things where US suppliers actually exist, but had a damn coffee tariff like there are coffee orchards across the Midwest struggling to compete. Just stupid.

Don't forget about bananas!

 

[Jaw]

It makes me want to take an upper decker on one of his gold toilets.

 

[nsacpi]

I just dont know what to argue with you anymore. Its clear there is no data that will change your mind. You are a zealot for whatever the admin does

The data is crystal clear. You can look at the timeline and the policy aligning to specific price increases.

AND, as a reminder, Trump only followed through with about half the tarrifs he promised.

AND AND he has already pulled back on some of them because he ADMITTED its causing price increases.

This is just math. You can argue its good for other things but you cant argue it doesnt impact prices. Its just math

The datalab data are consistent with today's CPI. The CPI for goods excluding food and energy continues to rise, reflecting the effects of the tariffs. However, this was swamped in today's report by decelerating shelter inflation and a big drop in airfares.

 

[thethe]

Sturg: tarrifs add costs to consumers

Thethe: no they don't

Sturg: when he removed tarrifs did it reduce costs?

Thethe: yes, but that wasn't your argument

Sturg syas tariffs indiscriminately increase costs to consumers. This is wrong.

Sturg never said a year ago that specifi tariffs on goods would cause that good to increase.

 

[thethe]

Prices have gone up in those products that are directly impacted by tariffs. That’s distinct from general inflation.

What about when all products are hit with a tariff?

 

[thethe]

Real Wage growth and home affordability.

That’s what will win the midterms. And all is going according to plan

 

[acesfull86]

What about when all products are hit with a tariff?

There’d be a potentially large one time increase in the price level, but no impact on ongoing rate of change in the price level (inflation)

 

[thethe]

There’d be a potentially large one time increase in the price level, but no impact on ongoing rate of change in the price level (inflation)

At what rate? How much should prices increase?

 

[acesfull86]

At what rate? How much should prices increase?

Seems like one would need to have a hell of a lot more information to venture a guess.

My point in this exchange was that most economists have not and would not suggest tariffs cause inflation. And people declaring victory based on inflation data have misunderstood the arguments.

 

[nsacpi]

Any graph that shows the price of goods were going down during Biden's time can be safely ignored. That's a bunch of bullshit.

The non-food and energy goods index includes things like communications equipment and computers where prices do in fact fall quite a bit when adjusted for quality improvements.

Here's what it has done the past ten years:

2016 -0.6%
2017 -0.7
2018 0.3
2019 0.1
2020 1.6
2021 10.6
2022 2.1
2023 0.1
2024 -0.7
2025 1.4

It would be flat or down slightly this year if not for tariffs.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Seems like one would need to have a hell of a lot more information to venture a guess.

My point in this exchange was that most economists have not and would not suggest tariffs cause inflation. And people declaring victory based on inflation data have misunderstood the arguments.

Yeah, there's more than the inflation side of the argument here and the other part of it has played out this year arguably.

The other argument is high enough tariffs just cause demand destruction and they don't actually lead to new factories being built.

I mean we did this before already. We saw a ton of promises with 2017 and all I think it led to is a FoxConn factory in Wisconsin that employed a lot less people than thought.

I'd be surprised if more than 5% of the promises actually played out going forward.

 

[thethe]

Seems like one would need to have a hell of a lot more information to venture a guess.

My point in this exchange was that most economists have not and would not suggest tariffs cause inflation. And people declaring victory based on inflation data have misunderstood the arguments.

Your argument wasn’t the consumer was going to pay more?

 

[acesfull86]

Your argument wasn’t the consumer was going to pay more?

Yes. Consistent with many many many years of real world data and economic theory, I believe the incidence of a tariff will generally fall on the consumer. That’s not “inflation,” which is a monetary phenomenon. People conflating those two things are getting it wrong.

 

[thethe]

Yes. Consistent with many many many years of real world data and economic theory, I believe the incidence of a tariff will generally fall on the consumer. That’s not “inflation,” which is a monetary phenomenon. People conflating those two things are getting it wrong.

But a price goes up by a finite amount to the end consumer and you can attribute portions of that growth to drivers. If inflation is already baked in at 3% then you have only so much to account for on other factors.