Second ('Third') Trump Presidency Thread

The main drivers for rising beef prices are a combination of a shrinking U.S. cattle herd (due to drought and high input costs), strong consumer demand, increased production costs (feed, labor, fuel), tariffs on imports, and industry consolidation, all leading to lower beef supply and higher costs passed to consumers. Rebuilding the herd takes years, so these high prices are expected to persist, with factors like volatile weather making recovery slow.

Supply-Side Factors (Lower Supply)
  • Reduced Herd Size: Years of drought and high operating costs (feed, fuel) forced ranchers to sell cows, shrinking the national herd to multi-decade lows.
  • Biology & Time: It takes years to grow a herd back, so lower cattle numbers mean less beef production for the foreseeable future.
  • Environmental Shocks: Droughts and extreme weather reduce feed and water, further hindering herd rebuilding.

Demand-Side Factors (Strong Demand)
  • Sustained Appetite: Consumers continue to demand beef, including premium cuts, even as prices rise.

Production Cost Factors (Higher Costs)
  • Input Costs: Inflation, expensive feed (corn), labor, equipment, and transportation significantly increase costs for farmers.
  • Tariffs: New tariffs, especially on imports from countries like Brazil, reduce available beef supply and add costs.

Market Structure Factors
  • Meatpacker Consolidation: Some argue that a few large meatpackers' market dominance can manipulate prices, impacting ranchers and consumers.

The Result
  • Supply & Demand Imbalance: Low supply coupled with strong demand pushes prices upward.
  • Higher Consumer Prices: These increased costs and reduced supply are passed down to consumers at the grocery store.
 
The main drivers of coffee price increases are a combination of reduced supply due to extreme weather events in key producing countries, strong and steady global demand, and rising costs across the entire supply chain, including labor, transportation, and tariffs.

Key Drivers of Coffee Price Increases
  • Climate Change and Extreme Weather: Coffee plants are highly sensitive to environmental conditions. Major producers like Brazil and Vietnam have faced severe droughts, unexpected frosts, and excessive rainfall in recent years, which have devastated crops and significantly reduced yields of both Arabica and Robusta beans. This climate volatility creates a significant supply shortage in the global market.
  • Supply and Demand Imbalance: Global demand for coffee, particularly specialty coffee, continues to rise steadily, with significant growth in emerging markets like China and India. This growing demand, paired with a constrained supply, naturally pushes prices higher.
  • Increased Production Costs: The costs for farmers to grow and harvest coffee have gone up due to several factors:
    • Fertilizer and Input Costs: The price of agricultural inputs has seen significant global increases.
    • Labor Shortages and Wages: Coffee farming is labor-intensive, and many regions are experiencing labor shortages and rising wage requirements to attract and retain workers.
  • Supply Chain and Transportation Issues: Getting coffee from remote farms to consumers involves a complex global supply chain that has faced disruptions:
    • Shipping Costs: Container shipping rates and fuel prices have remained elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.
    • Logistical Bottlenecks: Port congestion and a lack of container availability have led to shipping delays, adding to the overall cost and uncertainty.
  • Tariffs and Trade Policy: The implementation of new tariffs on imported coffee beans from major producing nations has increased the cost of goods for importers and roasters, which is then passed on to consumers. Trade policy uncertainty also contributes to market volatility.
  • Market Speculation: Coffee is traded as a commodity on futures markets. News about poor weather forecasts or trade disruptions can lead traders to buy up contracts, anticipating future scarcity. This speculation can amplify price movements and increase volatility even before physical shortages occur.
  • Low Inventories: Consuming countries have been drawing down their coffee inventories, partly due to high interest rates making it more expensive to store stock. Low inventory levels mean the market has less buffer to weather new supply shocks, leading to sharp price spikes.
 
Trust the healthcare experts - The only factor for these price increases were tariffs and tariffs alone.

For the portion of the increase that was tariffs trump and team have determined some relief from the natural price increases was in order.
 
Per Grok, tariffs added a full point to inflation. And highlights specific industry impacts here:

Grok

Grok is a free AI assistant designed by xAI to maximize truth and objectivity. Grok offers real-time search, image generation, trend analysis, and more.
grok.com grok.com
 
sturg33 said:
Per Grok, tariffs added a full point to inflation. And highlights specific industry impacts here:

Grok

Grok is a free AI assistant designed by xAI to maximize truth and objectivity. Grok offers real-time search, image generation, trend analysis, and more.
grok.com grok.com
Click to expand...
based on analyses from economic think tanks, research firms, and academic sources.

There was a time not long ago that Sturg was skeptical of the 'experts' and 'academia'.
 
Here you thought this whole time that price icnreases on coffee/beef have been due to tariffs.

Maybe Massie fed you that one!
 
thethe said:
That is confirmable with actual weather events and droughts.

Not models from think tanks.

How far you've fallen from properly criticizing 'experts'.
Click to expand...
I can tell you that the car im about to purchase is 7k more than it was last year.

I can tell you as a guy who drinks too much soda and seltzer water, the cost of these cans of liquid have nearly doubled YoY.

I can tell you I've done the whole "repurchase my Walmart grocery order" and the cost is up over 60% from Feb 2024.

I can tell you what I see with my own eyes and you reject it. I can tell you what the people who are studying it say, and you reject it.

Your "proof" is a mythical golden age that has yet to occur
 
Garmel said:
Yet we were the world's economic superpower by 1890. How did this happen with such high tariffs?

"Yes, tariffs were generally high and a central feature of 19th-century U.S. economic policy, especially after the Civil War, serving as a major revenue source and protection for burgeoning industries like steel, sparking significant debate and contributing to industrial growth but also economic friction, though their role in causing that growth is debated by economists. The U.S. maintained some of the world's highest rates, particularly on manufactured goods (often 40-50%), compared to Britain's move towards free trade and Germany/France's moderate tariffs"
Click to expand...

Since you decided to laugh at my response rather than comment, I’ll just say that the United States’ GDP (if that’s how you’re defining “superpower”) is over $11 trillion larger than the next highest country. We could craft a particular economic policy that causes the loss a trillion worth of GDP and still be the world’s economic superpower by a mere $10 trillion. I’m not sure what you find so surprising…
 
thethe said:
based on analyses from economic think tanks, research firms, and academic sources.

There was a time not long ago that Sturg was skeptical of the 'experts' and 'academia'.
Click to expand...
Thats the rub with AI queries.

There is no real data in there. Its an aggregator of online opinion. No hard data is presented. BL uses it all the time and theres no why in there.
 
sturg33 said:
I can tell you that the car im about to purchase is 7k more than it was last year.

I can tell you as a guy who drinks too much soda and seltzer water, the cost of these cans of liquid have nearly doubled YoY.

I can tell you I've done the whole "repurchase my Walmart grocery order" and the cost is up over 60% from Feb 2024.

I can tell you what I see with my own eyes and you reject it. I can tell you what the people who are studying it say, and you reject it.

Your "proof" is a mythical golden age that has yet to occur
Click to expand...

Which car?

What is the increase on soda from a year ago?

Please list the products and we can go down 1 by 1

I can counter all this with an index that tracks billions of prices and says no material inflation of goods.
 
sturg33 said:
Then why did Trump remove the tariffs and specifically say it was to provide cost relief?

Why are we sending $12B to bail out farmers?
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It ain't tarriffs.

The prices are less than the total inputs that have already been imported.

We have made commodities more expensive to produce than the worlds ability buy.

This is the general feeling in the farming community.

To pick cotton it costs you a 1.3 million dollar machine. At the price of cotton, you lose about 200$ an acre.
 
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