2016 Presidential Primaries [ SUPER TUESDAY | 3-1-'16]

Hawk said:
She's going to have to be, because until she chooses her token Hispanic she has zero credibility when it comes to Immigration. I mean none.

The national opinion on immigration is fairly centrist, so I don't see the advantage of the Democrats pushing further left on immigration in any way. The Republicans have more to gain there than the Democrats do.
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It doesn't matter if that's the case, what matters is the math. Republicans cannot with elections with all white voters anymore. They'll absolutely need to get to 40% hispanic vote like Bush 43 did in 2004 to even have a sniff at the Presidency.

Hillary can ride the coattails of her husband in the black community and Obama's coattails with the hispanics (executive order).

The centrist opinionated people you refer to, are more warm to the idea of a Clinton 3rd Term, than a Bush 4th term. Especially after Jeb's Iraq blunder this week.
 
Heywood said:
Easily trumps? Are you crazy? Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State and First Lady of the Husband who had the highest approval rating leaving office in history, and Julian Castro that gave the keynote address at the DNC a few years ago, current cabinet member of the Obama admin easily loses to two state governors? New Mexico of all places? If Bill Richardson or Gary Johnson couldn't get much traction with their New Mexico roots, I'd hardly think Susana Martinez is the mover you think she is. Picking an unknown like Martinez would be worse politically than McCain picking Palin. I'm sure Martinez is probably 5x smarter than Palin, but Jeb would piss off so much of the base it'd be hilarious.

Not to mention if and once Jeb becomes the nominee,he's going to have the shadow of his brother's bad reputation leaving office 8 years ago, the fact that the fringe of his party is going to pressure him to be against immigration which is going to lead him into a flip flop decision. I mean look at what the debates of 2012 did to Romney by the time he reached the General. Gingrich, Santorum, Perry all got their best blows in to hurt Romney's character and all Team Obama had to do was build on that.

The fact of the matter is, Bush in 2004 got 45% of the hispanic vote. THat's why he beat Kerry for the most part, but demographics have shifted so much and Republicans have alienated hispanics more than you admit during Obama's term that it'll be more than a miracle if they get close to 30% of the hispanic vote.
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You are trying to sell career politician to me like it's something I want to buy.

I appreciate Hillary Clinton (and the Clinton dynasty) from a political strategy perspective, but it's really easy to shame her opportunism and ultimate designs, most glaringly her arrangement with Obama to become SoS in return for super delegates and ongoing support.

Julian Castro is as much of a nobody as Martinez. HUD chief? Conservatives will eat that **** up and you know it.

I don't think Bush has any problem with his brother's 'bad reputation' -- because we're not talking about the Miliband brothers here, Jeb is not going to trash George -- which I think is why you see him coming out and taking these stances preemptively right now.
 
Hawk said:
Jeb said what he said because he has a Mexican wife and children of mixed descent.
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Shoot, should it get that far ,wait until the national media gets a hold of his wife- just saying

During his Governorship she had abso;utly no taste for public life and no pretense about it.

They will chew her up and spit her out

His candidacy is a train wreck - and it won't get any easier than it is right now
 
Hawk said:
You are trying to sell career politician to me like it's something I want to buy.

I appreciate Hillary Clinton (and the Clinton dynasty) from a political strategy perspective, but it's really easy to shame her opportunism and ultimate designs, most glaringly her arrangement with Obama to become SoS in return for super delegates and ongoing support.

Julian Castro is as much of a nobody as Martinez. HUD chief? Conservatives will eat that **** up and you know it.

I don't think Bush has any problem with his brother's 'bad reputation' -- because we're not talking about the Miliband brothers here, Jeb is not going to trash George -- which I think is why you see him coming out and taking these stances preemptively right now.
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I'm not trying to sell you anything. I'm speaking strictly from a strategists' perspective.

Obama is a once in a generation candidate that more people are willing to take a chance on the unknown than his credentials.

Most voters go with what they know. They know Hillary Clinton. They know Jeb is George's brother. They know Hillary is Bill's wife. They know the economy "felt" good when Bill left office. They know the recession started under George W. It's all relevant. Most voters don't think like you and I and what we're discussing in depth here. They vote on what they think think they know.
 
Heywood said:
Thus making him an outsider of the Republican Primary base. I still think he'll win the nomination, but I don't think his party will be as strongly behind him because he's not as much of a YES man like Romney was.
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The base will amalgamate around the nominee. They always do.
 
Hawk said:
Um, Romney controlled the base but lost swing voters.
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That's because the base didn't do much to try and help him get swing voters.

Of course hte base was going to go for Romney since he looked the least insane on there, looked the most electable, and was the nominee. They wanted Obama out and were willing to bite their tongue for Romney. But they didn't show the same enthusiasm for trying to help Romney get independents and swing voters like they loved Sarah Palin.
 
57Brave said:
Hawk, have you heard the excuses for why he answered that question the way he did ?? I smell Rick Perry Part Deux
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Polling suggests that Jeb does damage if he is perceived to be attacking his brother, I think he slipped up trying to paint the perfect picture.
 
Heywood said:
Most voters go with what they know. They know Hillary Clinton. They know Jeb is George's brother. They know Hillary is Bill's wife. They know the economy "felt" good when Bill left office. They know the recession started under George W. It's all relevant. Most voters don't think like you and I and what we're discussing in depth here. They vote on what they think think they know.
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I think the one element you are neglecting to consider is the Obama hangover.

Does the nation want four more years of pseudo-socialism? That's going to factor pretty heavily into the equation too. Will Hillary even want Obama to campaign on her behalf? He's doing her bidding right now but will it evolve into more than that?
 
Heywood said:
That's because the base didn't do much to try and help him get swing voters.

Of course hte base was going to go for Romney since he looked the least insane on there, looked the most electable, and was the nominee. They wanted Obama out and were willing to bite their tongue for Romney. But they didn't show the same enthusiasm for trying to help Romney get independents and swing voters like they loved Sarah Palin.
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In my opinion Romney was mortally wounded by advisers that were obsessed with presenting him as the antithesis of Obama. He went too cold, too right, too uniform. When he did that he killed off all chances of getting swing votes.

He was well funded and well supported from within the party, though, not sure where that sentiment is coming from.
 
Hawk said:
I think the one element you are neglecting to consider is the Obama hangover.

Does the nation want four more years of pseudo-socialism?
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I think you over estimate any potential Obama hangover. Obama will trend up by the end of his second term barring anything major like a redux of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

And if we go back to the lesser of two/three evils argument, it's would people rather have an Obama Third Term, Clinton Third Term, or Bush 4th Term.

I think we know which one or two of the three is more likely.

Not to mention, millenials will have a big say in this election bigger than 2008 and 2012. And the elephant in the room on the right is the Christian Conservative faction of the party that seems to peak it's head at the wrong times. Pew poll came out yesterday showing how secular millenials are compared to previous generations.
 
Heywood said:
Obama will trend up by the end of his second term barring anything major like a redux of the 2008 Financial Crisis.
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Based on what? His approval rating is still under 50% and I'd counter that it will actually trend downward at the end of his term in large part because Republicans are going to assail him from every direction in an attempt to advantage their candidates. He's already completely hamstrung in Congress. I mean, anything is possible -- but it doesn't appear as though the odds are in his favor.

I agree that millennials will have a strong say -- that is, if they even bother to come out and vote. Millenials are secular, but their parents are most likely not and that can't be completely discounted either.
 
Hawk said:
Based on what? His approval rating is still under 50% and I'd counter that it will actually trend downward at the end of his term in large part because Republicans are going to assail him from every direction in an attempt to advantage their candidates. He's already completely hamstrung in Congress. I mean, anything is possible -- but it doesn't appears as though the odds are in his favor.

I agree that millennials will have a strong say -- that is, if they even bother to come out and vote. Millenials are secular, but their parents are most likely not and that can't be completely discounted either.
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Bush had a 29% approval rating when he left. I think it was slightly higher the week of the 2008 elections.

Obama is right around 50%, even if he drops to 40-45% that's not low enough to spin it to the electorate soley as a mandate for change in the White House.

He's hamstrung by Congress but he's already gotten most of what he wanted to accomplish done. Stimulus, healthcare, immigration executive order, Cuba, maybe Iran deal, maybe Trade Deal, etc. On the flipside, when Bush left office with a low approval he actually had a working Congress with him in Pelosi and Reid. Clinton had a working relationship with his republican counterparts. History will not look too kindly on McConnell and Boehner, and I'm almost certain people will remember how much the GOP Congress dragged out these fights and government shutdowns etc.

And again, Congressional REpublicans will have to walk a fine line the next 2 years deciding if they want to get into a public debate on immigration which could hurt Jeb and also hurt the GOP overall with hispanics.

Do you think the heads of the GOP want to get into a public fight with Obama in an election year over immigration when they know they need the hispanic vote to win the general in 2016?
 
Will be interesting to see if Obama instigates a fight with Congress and if they take the bait.
Also interesting the two electoral fronts (R) has to hold up. The legislative front and the executive front.

If it is the legislative they will take the bait (red meat) and take back to their gerrymandered districts a fight with Obama. Which, is not a loser in the eyes of the base
Or the executive front and not show their true colors or take any stand.

I still maintain that Romney told the truth when he shouldn't. 47%. We will never know ...
 
Heywood said:
He's hamstrung by Congress but he's already gotten most of what he wanted to accomplish done. Stimulus, healthcare, immigration executive order, Cuba, maybe Iran deal, maybe Trade Deal, etc. On the flipside, when Bush left office with a low approval he actually had a working Congress with him in Pelosi and Reid. Clinton had a working relationship with his republican counterparts. History will not look too kindly on McConnell and Boehner, and I'm almost certain people will remember how much the GOP Congress dragged out these fights and government shutdowns etc.
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Like you said earlier, most people aren't going to able to mete this thing out on the levels we are interested in.

Hell, most people don't know who Boehner/Pelosi/Reid even are, much less what they do.

You think that the majority of people point to the Republicans as the reason why the government shut down? No. All they (might) know is that Obama was President when it happened.

Do you think the heads of the GOP want to get into a public fight with Obama in an election year over immigration when they know they need the hispanic vote to win the general in 2016?
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I don't think they want to, but with Jeb involved it really isn't a hot button issue to me. Plus, if the Republicans want to get into a spat with Obama they could pick from a billion things which resound with the broader electorate more imminently than immigration. I think ACA is going to be a big deal all over again.
 
Congress' approval rating is still at like 10%. You don't think that will hurt Jeb in the general since both chambers are now controlled by (R)?
 
Has anyone else noticed the shift of power in (D) cambers of Congress, Reports have dissatisfaction with PElosi in the House. Shoot, she has been in leadership for over 20 years and a new generation has arrived, The Senate has Reid not returning and (D) sensing a Warren take over. IF not politically at least ideologically. The trade deal vote of the week was watershed.

I thought very telling were Sherrod Browns coments of how dissmisive Obama was to Warren.
And, how HRC is jumping to curry favor.

Ineresting times
 
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