Grilli Close To Being Moved???

[auyushu]

How did we make the value of Albies vs. Freeman a simple determination of who has more pop in their bat? Because 1B is loaded with bats at the ML level, you have to really rake to have much value there, especially if you don't offer anything else.

Freeman was really good two years ago and has been worth about 2-3 WAR his other years, on pace for about 3.5 WAR this year. He's good to very good and still may improve. But why would anyone think it's crazy for Albies to eventually become that valuable a player at the ML level?

When did I say anything about power being the end all. I compared the WAR of the the players, which includes everything. The simple fact of the matter is that if you don't have power you have to be really really good at everything else to have similar value. And I don't know where you are getting your Freeman stats, but outside of his first two years he's been at least a 4 WAR player. 4.1 WAR last year, 5 WAR 2013, and he's lost 20 games this year to injury and has 2.3, he would have easily been 4.5+ this year without that. Barring some change he'll be a 4-5 WAR guy through his peak, if not slightly better once hit hits 28ish.

If Freeman was only a 3 WAR player right now you'd have a point, but hitting 4 WAR+ consistently and hitting 5 WAR is an entirely different ballgame. Even Pedroia has only had over 5 WAR 3 times, and he's been one of the top 2 2B for the last decade.

 

[thethe]

Auyusha has suggested that it is crazy to say Albies can ever be as good as Freeman, and his only reasoning for this is because Freeman has more pop. That contention is what I take issue with. Freeman was a slightly higher-rated prospect as a 20-year-old than Albies is right now at 18.

But Freeman isn't an elite player. He's a good to very good one. Suggesting Albies can never become a good to very good player is what I find crazy.

Yeah, I can't believe both he and GF were so adamant that it wasn't possible. Glad someone disagreed because I thought I was going insane. Albies is a top prospect at 18 freakin years old. It took Freeman a few years to get to that level.

 

[gilesfan]

The fact that a guy OPS'ing at .755 has only been slightly less valuable so far than a guy OPS'ing at .887 does not help prove your point. It helps show why catchers and MIFs are valued as prospects higher than some 1B and OFs with much better bats.

I think it's safe to say those ranking Albies highly think he has a good chance to OPS at higher than .755 with great defense and speed.

What makes the point is that it takes a good defensive middle infielder with some pop in his bat to reach the 3-4 WAR level. Altuve is essentially what you hope Albies can become (at SS).

Albies is ranked highly because a guy with speed that can play defense is a safe pick. Top prospect lists are littered with middle infielders. Have we had a SS not be on the top 100 list in the past decade? (Andrus, Furcal, Escobar, Betemit, Simmons, etc.)

 

[gilesfan]

Yeah, I can't believe both he and GF were so adamant that it wasn't possible. Glad someone disagreed because I thought I was going insane. Albies is a top prospect at 18 freakin years old. It took Freeman a few years to get to that level.

Freeman was a top 100 prospect before his age 19 season (at MB/Mississippi). He was a top 30ish prospect before his age 20 season.

BTW, Freeman was also in Rome at age 18. He hit .316/.378/.521.

 

[smootness]

Escobar was never a top 100 guy, and outside of Betemit, the rest turned out to be at least pretty darn good.

Simmons was never rated as highly as Albies is now, and Furcal only got there at 21.

I think Albies is potentially better defensively at SS than Altuve is at 2B, and I think Albies can make up for any difference in power with a higher average. And everything at SS is more valuable than at 2B.

I think suggesting that Albies can never be better than Altuve has been this year is stupid.

And I got my WAR numbers from BR. They have Freeman at 2.9 last year and 2.1 this year but 5.7 two years ago. We'll split the difference and say he's been 5+ at his peak so far and 2-4 his other years. I think Albies can become that, yes.

 

[auyushu]

I think it's safe to say those ranking Albies highly think he has a good chance to OPS at higher than .755 with great defense and speed.

No, being a .750ish OPS guy with great defense and speed is exactly what the guys ranking him are expecting him to be. That's exactly what the scouting grades they have given him mean. That's exactly what scouts have predicted him to be.

Albies has a 8% walk rate right now, so if he hits .300ish he's likely to have an OBP in the .350-.370 range. So if he has an ISO in the .120-.130 range he'd be just above .750ish OPS. In order to post an OPS at or over .800 he'd have to hit .330+ with that kind of walk rate and ISO.

You guys are vastly underestimating Freddie as both a player and a prospect.

 

[zbhargrove]

So back to the actual topic... Or do we want to continue hashing out every other argument every thread devolves into?

 

[auyushu]

I think suggesting that Albies can never be better than Altuve has been this year is stupid.

I'm wondering if you are even reading our posts at this point. First you've said I'm saying Albies can't be very good, and now you are saying I've said he can't be better than Altuve (never mind that I've already said I think Albies will be one of the best 2B in baseball and have a higher batting average and walk rate than Altuve). The issue is even if he does he's unlikely to be much above 4 WAR, and Freeman has already hit 5 once and has the potential to do so semi consistently (barring health).

On side note, it's weird fangraphs and BR are so far apart on WAR.

 

[Knucksie]

Quite possibly the craziest statement I've read on this board.

Ever.

The diagram of fecal matter set the bar pretty high for craziness on the board.

 

[smootness]

No, being a .750ish OPS guy with great defense and speed is exactly what the guys ranking him are expecting him to be. That's exactly what the scouting grades they have given him mean. That's exactly what scouts have predicted him to be.

Albies has a 8% walk rate right now, so if he hits .300ish he's likely to have an OBP in the .350-.370 range. So if he has an ISO in the .120-.130 range he'd be just above .750ish OPS. In order to post an OPS at or over .800 he'd have to hit .330+ with that kind of walk rate and ISO.

You guys are vastly underestimating Freddie as both a player and a prospect.

I'm not underrating Freeman as a prospect. He peaked at 15-20, making him a very, very good prospect. And I'm not underestimating him as a player. He has been consistently good to very good and has flashed even better than that; and he could certainly continue to improve. I love Freeman. And I love Albies as a prospect. The issue I have is the suggestion that Albies can't ever become what Freeman is.

 

[jpx7]

The diagram of fecal matter set the bar pretty high for craziness on the board.

You mean this?

(So named, by the way, because Bristol, Connecticut, is the headquarters of ESPN.)

 

[rico43]

It's time to roll the dice. If they want Grilli, adds Sims or Hursh to the pile as well as the CJ contract. In turn, we take the two crazy Cubans their organization is dying to get rid of -- Yasiel Puig and Arubel Arruebarrena, a slick shortstop who was suspended earlier this year. Fredi being Cuban might be a wild and crazy way to harness to out of control players. Dodgers sure don't need them

Fixed my gibberish.

 

[smootness]

I'm wondering if you are even reading our posts at this point. First you've said I'm saying Albies can't be very good, and now you are saying I've said he can't be better than Altuve (never mind that I've already said I think Albies will be one of the best 2B in baseball and have a higher batting average and walk rate than Altuve). The issue is even if he does he's unlikely to be much above 4 WAR, and Freeman has already hit 5 once and has the potential to do so semi consistently (barring health).

On side note, it's weird fangraphs and BR are so far apart on WAR.

First, let me say that after going back I lumped clv's posts in with yours, so I'm sorry about that. He's the one that clearly said Albies wasn't close to the prospect Freeman was. But you have said that Albies' upside is not on the same level as Freeman's and that his bat isn't close and have certainly at least insinuated you don't think Albies can ever get to Freeman's level.

Well, if you think Albies can be better than Altuve, I have no idea why you think he can't ever be Freeman from a pure value standpoint.

Simmons has already posted a 7 WAR season, one in which he OPS'd at under .700. This year he's done basically what Freeman has, maybe just a tick behind in terms of WAR. (I just checked Fangraphs and it seems to be well behind BR on their valuation of Simmons). So let's say Simmons peaked at about 5-6 WAR and has consistently been 2-3, on pace for 3+ this year. He's been roughly the player Freeman has been so far; their peaks have been similar, and they've been consistently close to each other otherwise, with Freeman probably a tick above overall.

Obviously it's because of Simmons' defense, and Albies isn't what Simmons is defensively. But I think he's probably good enough that if he posts the offensive numbers he's capable of, he can more than cancel out Simmons' gap on defense and be the better overall player. That would put him in Freeman's league.

I don't know that Albies is likely to get there, but Freeman wasn't likely to OPS at .880+ as a prospect, either. Several, including Law, didn't think he'd ever get there. So as prospects, they're pretty darn similar. Insinuating that Freeman was way ahead of Albies as a prospect is weird, considering we can actually see where various people ranked them, and they're similar.

 

[gilesfan]

I'm not underrating Freeman as a prospect. He peaked at 15-20, making him a very, very good prospect. And I'm not underestimating him as a player. He has been consistently good to very good and has flashed even better than that; and he could certainly continue to improve. I love Freeman. And I love Albies as a prospect. The issue I have is the suggestion that Albies can't ever become what Freeman is.

Its that Albies isn't at that level now. We were judging the farm system from now to back then.

 

[smootness]

Let me just say, too, that it's weird to me to use Altuve as an example when talking about MIFs being ranked too high as prospects and comparing him to Freeman. Altuve wasn't ever even a top 100 prospect.

I get the point; you're using what Altuve actually is in the majors as a reference, but he's actually a good example to show that, no, evaluators don't just go nuts on any MIF with a pulse in prospect rankings. The gap between Freeman and Altuve as major league players is actually smaller than the gap between them as prospects.

 

[gilesfan]

First, let me say that after going back I lumped clv's posts in with yours, so I'm sorry about that. He's the one that clearly said Albies wasn't close to the prospect Freeman was. But you have said that Albies' upside is not on the same level as Freeman's and that his bat isn't close and have certainly at least insinuated you don't think Albies can ever get to Freeman's level.

Well, if you think Albies can be better than Altuve, I have no idea why you think he can't ever be Freeman from a pure value standpoint.

Simmons has already posted a 7 WAR season, one in which he OPS'd at under .700. This year he's done basically what Freeman has, maybe just a tick behind in terms of WAR. (I just checked Fangraphs and it seems to be well behind BR on their valuation of Simmons). So let's say Simmons peaked at about 5-6 WAR and has consistently been 2-3, on pace for 3+ this year. He's been roughly the player Freeman has been so far; their peaks have been similar, and they've been consistently close to each other otherwise, with Freeman probably a tick above overall.

Obviously it's because of Simmons' defense, and Albies isn't what Simmons is defensively. But I think he's probably good enough that if he posts the offensive numbers he's capable of, he can more than cancel out Simmons' gap on defense and be the better overall player. That would put him in Freeman's league.

I don't know that Albies is likely to get there, but Freeman wasn't likely to OPS at .880+ as a prospect, either. Several, including Law, didn't think he'd ever get there. So as prospects, they're pretty darn similar. Insinuating that Freeman was way ahead of Albies as a prospect is weird, considering we can actually see where various people ranked them, and they're similar.

Freeman put up a .900 OPS at age 18 in Rome and in AAA at age 20. I'm not sure why its out of the realm that he put those numbers up in the major leagues; as he didn't do it with a remarkable BABIP or fluke high average year and isn't a speedster. Many people took issue with Law (including myself) because he kept underrating Freemans power despite Freeman putting up .200iso Slg as a young player in the league......and the fact that he's like 6-5 225.

 

[smootness]

Its that Albies isn't at that level now. We were judging the farm system from now to back then.

Yes, and back then, Freeman wasn't OPS'ing at .880 in the majors. There were doubts that he would ever be able to do it. He was a 15-20 prospect, clearly. Albies has been ranked 32 and 39 by publications that had him nowhere close to that before the season, and Fangraphs ranked him 34 before the season, so I would take a guess he's either close to the top 20 or inside it according to them right now.

Saying that Freeman as a prospect was slightly ahead of Albies currently as a prospect is fine. Suggesting it's laughable to say they're in about the same spot is not.

 

[smootness]

Freeman put up a .900 OPS at age 18 in Rome and in AAA at age 20. I'm not sure why its out of the realm that he put those numbers up in the major leagues; as he didn't do it with a remarkable BABIP or fluke high average year and isn't a speedster. Many people took issue with Law (including myself) because he kept underrating Freemans power despite Freeman putting up .200iso Slg as a young player in the league......and the fact that he's like 6-5 225.

Ok, that's fine. But real evaluators did have questions about it, that's my only point. As a prospect, he wasn't far and away ahead of where Albies is now in 2010.

 

[gilesfan]

Let me just say, too, that it's weird to me to use Altuve as an example when talking about MIFs being ranked too high as prospects and comparing him to Freeman. Altuve wasn't ever even a top 100 prospect.

I get the point; you're using what Altuve actually is in the majors as a reference, but he's actually a good example to show that, no, evaluators don't just go nuts on any MIF with a pulse in prospect rankings. The gap between Freeman and Altuve as major league players is actually smaller than the gap between them as prospects.

The comparison is because there aren't many 5-6 150 pound players that become really good major leaguers so you point to the best ones (altuve, Ped) and hope Albies can get to that level.

 

[gilesfan]

Yes, and back then, Freeman wasn't OPS'ing at .880 in the majors. There were doubts that he would ever be able to do it. He was a 15-20 prospect, clearly. Albies has been ranked 32 and 39 by publications that had him nowhere close to that before the season, and Fangraphs ranked him 34 before the season, so I would take a guess he's either close to the top 20 or inside it according to them right now.

Saying that Freeman as a prospect was slightly ahead of Albies currently as a prospect is fine. Suggesting it's laughable to say they're in about the same spot is not.

But, he was OPS'ing .880 in the minors at a young age that made him a top 20ish prospect. And there was Heyward. And there was Teheran. And there were several other really good prospects.