I've been in the 'don't deal him unless you get a haul' camp for a while, but I've begun to tip toward trading him. Obviously it all depends on what we actually get offered, but I think the combination of a weak SP market and his good pitching of late mean his value is probably close to its peak. The velocity drop this year is also worrisome to me.
Julion Teheran over the Years
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
I've been in the 'don't deal him unless you get a haul' camp for a while, but I've begun to tip toward trading him. Obviously it all depends on what we actually get offered, but I think the combination of a weak SP market and his good pitching of late mean his value is probably close to its peak. The velocity drop this year is also worrisome to me.
Deester11
Well-known member
Oh I definitely see both sides. It'll be bittersweet for me no matter what. A couple of things that I would miss go beyond pitching (I remember the kid I talked to as an excited top prospect at Disney who said, "I just happy to be a Brave. I love the Braves."), that part is sentimental to me. However, I love the bulldog mentality and he doesn't back down to anyone. He'll plunk you and look like, "what?" He's at his best when he's controlling the inside of the plate and now he's added to his pitching inventory.
If it happens, I'll support it. I'm a Braves fan first. Just want hitting prospects that have impact back in return.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
You HAVE to get hitting prospects back. And if you can get young hitters back for him, then we are in a good spot. We can make some minor upgrades this offseason, or pull a few other surprise trades in the offseason. Which would set us up for hitting the free agent market following the 2017 season
True story, went to a BayBears game in Mobile on Saturday night....hadn't been in our seats for 2 mins and a Michael Bourn foul ball hits my 4 year old son in the leg. Has no bearing on anything in this thread....just an fyi on why we should all hate Michael Bourn for the sake of my child.
Disclaimer: My son was sitting two rows above me with some friends and I was holding my 2 year old in the middle of the aisle and couldn't run up to save him from the foul ball. I'm a good father.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
That deal was a ridiculous deal. There could be a very good offer for Teheran that I suspect most of us would accept that would fall well short of the Miller trade. For example, something that brought us the equivalent of a Swanson plus one of (but not both) the equivalent of an Inciarte or Blair.
Exactly. People were calling that one of the most lopsided deals in baseball history. It's not happening again.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Nobody WANTs to deal JT.
But nobody wants to watch this collection of awful hitters.
If you can get a stud hitter who is controlled for at least 3 years, then you need to look at it. We'd lose a lot with Tehran gone, but look at the lineups we are putting out.
I know we all love Mallex right now. And Ruiz has done some things. But I'm still thinking of C, 3B, and both corners as steaming piles of awfulness right now. I think there is a better chance that one of Newcombe or Simms can replace a decent portion of JT than we fill those holes in the line up.
I'd prefer to get a team like the Rockies to bite on Folty for their blocked 3B prospect and keep JT.
But nobody wants to watch this collection of awful hitters.
If you can get a stud hitter who is controlled for at least 3 years, then you need to look at it. We'd lose a lot with Tehran gone, but look at the lineups we are putting out.
I know we all love Mallex right now. And Ruiz has done some things. But I'm still thinking of C, 3B, and both corners as steaming piles of awfulness right now. I think there is a better chance that one of Newcombe or Simms can replace a decent portion of JT than we fill those holes in the line up.
I'd prefer to get a team like the Rockies to bite on Folty for their blocked 3B prospect and keep JT.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
It has to be TOP hitting prospects, not just hitting prospects. I think you are implying that, but I wanted to emphatically state that we shouldn't trade him for just a hitting prospect. Atlanta made a bad move in trading a young, controllable pitcher in Alex Wood for a guy who may have been considered a top bat prospect, but was still 31 years of age.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
Top pitching is that valuable though. For example, if I were to do a deal with Houston, I want Alex Bregman and Daz Cameron for Julio.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
If we sign Prado and Ian Desmond this off-season it would allow us to upgrade the team without trading Teheran or any top prospects. I'm thinking Prado could play third. Desmond left. Which would allow us to trade an outfielder (Smith, Inciarte or Markakis) for a catcher.
Oklahomabrave
Anytime Now Frankie...
God don't trade Folty. He's in the position where he doesn't have optimal value because he hasn't established he can maintain anything close to what he's doing. So he isn't worth a ton and seems on the cusp of breaking out and being worth more in a trade OR worth tremendously more to us.
I want Mike Trout for Teheran, but not every GM is Dave Stewart. That can't be the expectation.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
You DO NOT trade Teheran AND Folty - you absolutely don't do it.
That being said, you make the trade if it's for the right deal. The guy has a 2.73 ERA with a career ERA of 3.38. The guy may not be an Ace, but he's an easy number two. I just can't see the Dodgers or Red Sox not asking about him at least.
That being said, you make the trade if it's for the right deal. The guy has a 2.73 ERA with a career ERA of 3.38. The guy may not be an Ace, but he's an easy number two. I just can't see the Dodgers or Red Sox not asking about him at least.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
Of course im not talking about a guy that's 3 or 4 years away.We are going to be getting that in the Internation Draft. I want a guy that is ready to step in at the end of this year, or ready to break camp next year in our lineup. Olivera was just an awful decision by the FO
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
It's the little moves that do pay off for a team like the Braves and our major league scouting staff doesn't seem to be able to come up with guys better than Stubbs, Francoeur, etc. I think Beckham may deviate from that unfortunate trend.
But I'm watching Khris Davis tear it up for the A's and Mike Joyce contributing in Pittsburgh and scratching my head. I realize the A's gave up a decent prospect in Nottingham to land Davis, but it's not like the price was totally out of reach. Davis is probably a bad example, but we just seem to target the wrong guys.
dak
Well-known member
Yeah, I think that is the right way to look at it compared to the Miller trade. We need value roughly equivalent to 2 out of the 3 pieces in the Miller trade.
Biggest challenge I see for the Braves is timing. Teheran may be at the apex of his value right now, so you have to at least on him at the deadline. But contending teams will not be ready to part with young MLB position players that are part of their stretch drive. They'll want the Braves to take back prospects, many of which won't be MLB-ready by April 2017. In some ways that gives the Braves leverage, but it could make for difficult match-making in July. Braves stand a better chance of getting the kind of package they'll want in the offseason, IMO. But they run the chance of a performance regression by Teheran if they wait.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Josh Reddick is another example from a few years ago. He was a decent but not elite prospect. Nothing wrong with stockpiling those kinds of guys on the expectation that one out of ten will turn out to be of significant value.
Beckham has been one our few pleasant surprises this year. I thought he looked very good in spring training. Then he had a disastrous first few games and people wanted him released. Glad it didn't happen. I would be in favor of bringing him and KJ back next year. It is worth constructing a decent bench rather than trying to choose between Francoeur, Stubbs and Bonifacio.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I would be more concerned with the quality of the overall package rather than focus on specific needs or the players ETA to the majors. That's secondary to value. The exception I might make would be for a catcher who is already in the majors or is near major league ready. We have a big need there. But I think we can fill that need without moving Teheran or any top prospect.
I don't think now is the time to trade Teheran unless they plan on punting 2017 as well. It's actually very simple, either they want to win in 2017, or they don't. The overall direction of the club should determine whether or not Teheran is traded at this point in time.
If they plan on addressing LF, 3B and C this offseason with guys like Braun, Freese/Prado/Desmond, and Jason Castro or Ramos, then keep Teheran to anchor the staff. Those additions could make the Braves an 80-85 win team if guys like Folty and Wisler continue to progress, and Albies and Swanson are ready to contribute.
If they plan on adding placeholder guys like Garcia, Bonifacio, Beckham and Frenchy, then they are punting 2017 and they may as well trade Teheran. Hopefully they learned their lesson this year that terrible MLB players available for $1M are available so cheaply for a reason...they suck and a team can not win with them on the roster.
If they trade Teheran they need to get a hitter at the level of Swanson plus another piece equal to Inciarte or Blair. If a deal equal to 2/3 of the value they got for Miller isn't offered, then don't trade Julio.
If they keep Teheran he needs to be traded when he has 1-2 years of control remaining, regardless of the team's position on the win curve.
If they plan on addressing LF, 3B and C this offseason with guys like Braun, Freese/Prado/Desmond, and Jason Castro or Ramos, then keep Teheran to anchor the staff. Those additions could make the Braves an 80-85 win team if guys like Folty and Wisler continue to progress, and Albies and Swanson are ready to contribute.
If they plan on adding placeholder guys like Garcia, Bonifacio, Beckham and Frenchy, then they are punting 2017 and they may as well trade Teheran. Hopefully they learned their lesson this year that terrible MLB players available for $1M are available so cheaply for a reason...they suck and a team can not win with them on the roster.
If they trade Teheran they need to get a hitter at the level of Swanson plus another piece equal to Inciarte or Blair. If a deal equal to 2/3 of the value they got for Miller isn't offered, then don't trade Julio.
If they keep Teheran he needs to be traded when he has 1-2 years of control remaining, regardless of the team's position on the win curve.