Julion Teheran over the Years

Julion has pushed up his K rate to a career high 8.4 per nine innings. He's obviously on a roll right now and you always want to be cautious in extrapolating when a player is in a groove (or big slump for that matter). But he's been a 3 WAR player before (3.2 in the 2014 season) and I think we can reasonably project this is baseline. Might exceed it some seasons. Might come up short in others. But that looks like his baseline. Not elite. But very good.
 
sturg33 said:
Do you mean K/9 is 8.4?
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I think that's what he means.

Here's hoping last year was the blip. Could have been injuries. Could have been a lot of things. Big thing is his BB rate was up last year and a few more balls left the park.

I'll admit my bias. I've always been a fan. Seeing there are probably 10 "aces" in all of baseball, not every team is going to have one.
 
To anyone that actually watched the moment JT hurt his knee on the mound and watched him scuffle a good bit from that point forward, he was hurt. Plain and simple. He may not have been 75%, but he DANG sure was not 100%. I don't care what the FO or staff says.
 
50PoundHead said:
I think that's what he means.

Here's hoping last year was the blip. Could have been injuries. Could have been a lot of things. Big thing is his BB rate was up last year and a few more balls left the park.

I'll admit my bias. I've always been a fan. Seeing there are probably 10 "aces" in all of baseball, not every team is going to have one.
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Julion is in the 20-30 range in terms of rankings among starters. Not an ace. Not a near-ace. But still very valuable. And young enough so there is some upside. Each year he has been a different kind of pitcher. I like the rise in ground ball rate we have seen this year. The combination of higher strikeout rate and higher ground ball rate is pretty impressive (assuming it is not a small sample fluke).
 
I see a lot of people falling into what I call the "stock trap"

When you own a stock, and it's getting crushed, your natural instinct is to sell it.

When you own a stock and it's soaring, you want to keep it bc it's doing so well.

When Julio was struggling, many wanted to trade him before he lost his value... Now he may be getting his peak value back, I'm seeing a lot of comments about how we need to keep him... but IMO, this IS the time to make a move.
 
sturg33 said:
I see a lot of people falling into what I call the "stock trap"

When you own a stock, and it's getting crushed, your natural instinct is to sell it.

When you own a stock and it's soaring, you want to keep it bc it's doing so well.

When Julio was struggling, many wanted to trade him before he lost his value... Now he may be getting his peak value back, I'm seeing a lot of comments about how we need to keep him... but IMO, this IS the time to make a move.
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Agreed. His value is extremely high and should bring back a bat or two that are integral to our rebuild. Sell now.
 
sturg33 said:
I see a lot of people falling into what I call the "stock trap"

When you own a stock, and it's getting crushed, your natural instinct is to sell it.

When you own a stock and it's soaring, you want to keep it bc it's doing so well.

When Julio was struggling, many wanted to trade him before he lost his value... Now he may be getting his peak value back, I'm seeing a lot of comments about how we need to keep him... but IMO, this IS the time to make a move.
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I'm definitely deep inside the stock trap when it comes to Markakis.
 
nsacpi said:
Julion is in the 20-30 range in terms of rankings among starters. Not an ace. Not a near-ace. But still very valuable. And young enough so there is some upside. Each year he has been a different kind of pitcher. I like the rise in ground ball rate we have seen this year. The combination of higher strikeout rate and higher ground ball rate is pretty impressive (assuming it is not a small sample fluke).
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Like tapate50, I'm not saying he was hurt last year, but if his knee was bugging him, that's going to contribute to him being high in the zone and while he's always pitched upstairs, a smidgen of loss in velocity or location and fly balls turn into XBHs.

Just glad he's back. If they trade him, they better get a friggin' haul.
 
50PoundHead said:
Like tapate50, I'm not saying he was hurt last year, but if his knee was bugging him, that's going to contribute to him being high in the zone and while he's always pitched upstairs, a smidgen of loss in velocity or location and fly balls turn into XBHs.

Just glad he's back. If they trade him, they better get a friggin' haul.
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just could have been he had to pitch to AJP most of the year.
 
sturg33 said:
I see a lot of people falling into what I call the "stock trap"

When you own a stock, and it's getting crushed, your natural instinct is to sell it.

When you own a stock and it's soaring, you want to keep it bc it's doing so well.

When Julio was struggling, many wanted to trade him before he lost his value... Now he may be getting his peak value back, I'm seeing a lot of comments about how we need to keep him... but IMO, this IS the time to make a move.
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You don't make a move just to make it. If someone offers a deal 2/3 of the Shelby deal, sure, maybe you do it. But you still need established starters moving forward, and we currently have zero outside of Teheran for the future.

I don't think many here wanted to trade him when his value was low last year. I think most felt it would rebound. And I think most understand it's not usually good to sell low.
 
Teheran looks like a guy who can throw 200 innings year in and year out. I think that's valuable beyond peripherals. You need guys who log innings every year, and he's the only one we've got moving forward, AND he's signed to a team friendly deal. We have absolutely no reason to trade him unless someone gives an absolute ton for him. He will still be integral to the team in two, three years when we'll be much better.
 
50PoundHead said:
I think that's what he means.

Here's hoping last year was the blip. Could have been injuries. Could have been a lot of things. Big thing is his BB rate was up last year and a few more balls left the park.

I'll admit my bias. I've always been a fan. Seeing there are probably 10 "aces" in all of baseball, not every team is going to have one.
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There is a first tier of top pitchers that have very few guys in it. I think Julio is definitely in that 2nd tier.
 
yeezus said:
Teheran looks like a guy who can throw 200 innings year in and year out. I think that's valuable beyond peripherals. You need guys who log innings every year, and he's the only one we've got moving forward, AND he's signed to a team friendly deal. We have absolutely no reason to trade him unless someone gives an absolute ton for him. He will still be integral to the team in two, three years when we'll be much better.
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Exactly. There are a couple reasons why you might trade a player who is producing well for you.

1- The player is likely to decline. That's not the case with Julio. He's just 25 so there's a good bet he'll get better over the next 5 years as he goes though his prime. He's not a player exiting his prime and likely to decline (e.g. Uggla).

2- The player is too expensive. Not the case either. Julio's contract is actually an asset. His option for 2020 is just $12 million. That's amazing.

3- He's going to be a free agent. Julio is signed through 2019 with an option for 2020.

4- The player doesn't fit your plans. Julio would be a great veteran anchor for an otherwise young rotation and is signed through a time where we're expecting to compete. And it's not like he's blocking better options.

5- You're blown away by the offer. This would have to be it. There are none of the other factors motivating us to trade Julio. If we don't get absolute top dollar then don't trade him.

I would demand an absolute blue chip position player in any deal. It's hard to get teams to let go of those guys but Julio is the best pitcher that might be available and his contract is amazingly team friendly. We need an offer that convinces us to trade him.
 
I agree it needs to be a haul... but I'm not as big on Julio as others. However, we're in a position of strength as we have no need to move him (just like with Alex Wood)... but if the Astros offered Bregman, I'm taking that immediately
 
sturg33 said:
I agree it needs to be a haul... but I'm not as big on Julio as others. However, we're in a position of strength as we have no need to move him (just like with Alex Wood)... but if the Astros offered Bregman, I'm taking that immediately
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imo Bregman for Teheran would be a fair trade but not a clear win
 
yeezus said:
You don't make a move just to make it. If someone offers a deal 2/3 of the Shelby deal, sure, maybe you do it. But you still need established starters moving forward, and we currently have zero outside of Teheran for the future.

I don't think many here wanted to trade him when his value was low last year. I think most felt it would rebound. And I think most understand it's not usually good to sell low.
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Exactly this.

Unless someone offers Swanson plus Blair/Inciarte for Teheran, keep him for another 2-3 years. At that point he will have 1-2 years of control remaining, and flipping him for prospects will be the best way to maximize his value to the organization.
 
sturg33 said:
I agree it needs to be a haul... but I'm not as big on Julio as others. However, we're in a position of strength as we have no need to move him (just like with Alex Wood)... but if the Astros offered Bregman, I'm taking that immediately
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doubt the Stros offer Bregman.. but who wouldn't take him..
 
nsacpi said:
imo Bregman for Teheran would be a fair trade but not a clear win
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Agreed. Bregman is roughly equal to Swanson, so the Astros would also have to include a top 50ish pitching prospect or an MLB ready guy at a position of need to equal Blair or Inciarte.
 
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