striker42
Well-known member
The oft forgotten part. What we got from Texas was a year and a half of Tex and two first round picks. If we'd kept the picks there's a good chance that trade ends up looking fairly even.
Insane package for Chapman
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
The oft forgotten part. What we got from Texas was a year and a half of Tex and two first round picks. If we'd kept the picks there's a good chance that trade ends up looking fairly even.
Not missed in the lineup? Andrus would have been a pretty huge upgrade at SS from 2010 through most of 2012 when were trotting Alex Gonzalez or the ghost of Yunel's Braves career out there. Harrison would have been a huge help in 2011 and 2012. Feliz was one of the most dynamic relief pitchers in baseball from 2009-2011, mild understatement to say he could have been useful.
If we don't make the Tex trade and keep those players then it's almost certain that we make the playoffs in 2011 rather than missing them by a single game (having Andrus over Gonzalez alone would have seen to that). Our SS combined for zero WAR in 2012, Andrus had 4 WAR himself, and Harrison was worth slightly over 6 WAR in 2012. So with Harrison and Andrus in 2012 there is a decent chance we would have been able to catch and pass the Nats, allowing us to not get bounced in a one game WC playoff.
Who the heck knows how far we go if we made it past the playin stage either year, but we would have had a chance. The Tex trade made a huge impact on those years, acting like those players wouldn't have mattered is revisionist history and quite absurd IMO.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
On the one hand, I can see trying to shore up your weak link with possibly the best player available to fill it.
On the other hand, they have paid a considerable amount for what could potentially be no more than 30 IP, including the playoffs. I mean, there are series where the starting pitching just fails, and the closer doesn't make a difference.
On the other hand, they have paid a considerable amount for what could potentially be no more than 30 IP, including the playoffs. I mean, there are series where the starting pitching just fails, and the closer doesn't make a difference.
Southcack77
Well-known member
You are far more certain than I am about the value of Elvis Andrus.
Certain? Dude was a 4 WAR player in 2011 and 2012, his stats for those years exist. The horrible stats of our SS those years exist. There is nothing to be uncertain or certain about. Hell, the combined WAR of Feliz, Andrus, and Harrison was over 8 in 2011, if you don't think that results in two more wins in 2011 I really don't know what to tell you.
bravescountry
Arizona Fall Leaguer
TBH... I don't think the trade is as bad as most people think.
Torres is still at least 3 years away, McKinney is a platoon bat in LF, Warren isn't good, and then the 4th prospect is just a throw-in.
If Torres doesn't live up to his potential, and Chapman leads the Cubs to the WS, the Cubs would win.
As of looking at the trade today, it's a better trade for the Yankees, no doubt, but I don't think the trade is that "crazy," it's just a lot better than what the Reds got and just has a lot of "minor" pieces moving. I don't think McKinney will be rated as highly of a prospect- he hits singles, and doesn't do much else and is fringy in the OF with his defense... if the Cubs can resign Chapman for a couple of years, the deal isn't really that bad.
Torres is still at least 3 years away, McKinney is a platoon bat in LF, Warren isn't good, and then the 4th prospect is just a throw-in.
If Torres doesn't live up to his potential, and Chapman leads the Cubs to the WS, the Cubs would win.
As of looking at the trade today, it's a better trade for the Yankees, no doubt, but I don't think the trade is that "crazy," it's just a lot better than what the Reds got and just has a lot of "minor" pieces moving. I don't think McKinney will be rated as highly of a prospect- he hits singles, and doesn't do much else and is fringy in the OF with his defense... if the Cubs can resign Chapman for a couple of years, the deal isn't really that bad.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I prefer not to speculate about alternative history whenever possible. I do know that a particular player's WAR doesn't actually mean that a team will win more games. It's just a stat.
I disagree with your premise that the players the Braves traded were particularly impactful losses for the Braves organization. If I thought that Texeira and a very good left handed reliever addressed the major weaknesses on a team capable of winning the championship, I would do that same deal again, assuming of course that I did not make the judgment in hindsight.
Of course, I might not think that those players were the difference and I would certainly try to do a better job of recouping value if it failed.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I hate to wade in, but the thing I find a bit funny is up until this year, Teixeira was by far the best player in the deal (excepting the years in which Teixeira was injured). Tex was truly a great hitter.
Put it this way. That deal jump started the Rangers and certainly helped them in their mini run of dominating the AL for a few years.
Andrus would have been significantly more valuable than Alex Gonzalez in 2010-2011, and leagues better than Janish and Pastornicky in 2012, it's really not even a matter of debate. The stats speak for themselves there.
And by your argument we shouldn't even bother signing free agents this offseason, because even though Prado, Turner, or Freese produce more WAR than Garcia, we won't get any more wins because of it.
The lengths people go through to try and defend Braves moves at all cost never cease to amaze me. Pretty much every neutral site that discusses the Tex move puts it in among the worst deals of the past 30 years, but nah, it wasn't a big deal.
Eh, no doubt Tex was a great hitter, but he's pretty close to the same amount of WAR as Andrus since 2010. His best seasons have no doubt been higher value, but overall they've been fairly even. Tex of course was ridiculously good from 2007-2009 though.
Also, having Feliz around in 2010, we likely don't sign Wagner and give up a 1st round pick.
Which means having him in the playoffs. So who knows how that Giants series plays out.
As a small market team the Braves can't make trades like the Tex one anymore if they want to remain consistently competitive. This isn't the mid 90's where trading part of the farm for a McGriff isn't a big deal because we have Teds checkbook to cover the rest.
I understand the skepticism many have, but I'll remain in the camp that believes the brass when they say the Braves will be a Top 10 payroll team in the near future. If they prove that's not going to be the case, I'm sure my opinion may change.
That said, I still agree with those who feel that the haul we gave up for Teixeira was (for the most part) excess. Very good players, but excess at the time nevertheless. Could those players have been used in other trades for other pieces? Maybe. The thing is, that (along with the belief that other uncontrollable things - Wagner signing/loss of draft pick, etc.) hindsight has always been better than 20-20 and lots of us look like "geniuses" years later (myself certainly included). They made the deal with every intention of re-signing Tex as Chipper's "protection" until he retired. If that had happened and the Braves got that second Title, I dare say NO ONE would have complained. It didn't work out. Even with that being the case, I'm glad JS took a shot - parades are worth more than prospects to just about everyone I know. I'd imagine Cubs fans feel the same way today.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I'm not anti-stats per se, but this is why I get a bit frustrated with the whole WAR war. There's no planet in the galaxy where Andrus is even remotely as valuable as Teixeira (unless everyone on the planet only speaks Spanish).
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I think it's been said before BUT the biggest problem with the Tex trade was what Atlanta got in return when they traded him. IF Atlanta had either held on to him for the pick OR better yet turned him into 2-3 good players, one who would eventually be a star, then the Texas deal evens out quite a bit when you take into the service time Tex provided Atlanta.
But Atlanta HAD to have a ML 1B in return and it made no difference how good that ML first baseman actually was...
But Atlanta HAD to have a ML 1B in return and it made no difference how good that ML first baseman actually was...
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
But WAR doesn't claim that. It has Andrus' best season rated below six of Teixeira's.
I would say it is useful to have a way of comparing a slick fielding SS with a .720 OPS and over 30 steals with a first baseman with a .880 OPS. I don't think it is crazy on an intuitive basis to say two players of this sort are close in value.