WAR is just way of attempting to put a number of a players ability. What is a slightly above average hitting outfielder with poor defense and base running? Equal something like 1 WAR?
Hello, Atlanta
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
WAR is just way of attempting to put a number of a players ability. What is a slightly above average hitting outfielder with poor defense and base running? Equal something like 1 WAR?
chop2chip
Well-known member
That's true, but I guarantee you its for the exact opposite reason you are proposing.
All inconsequential imo. Yes a groundout with a guy on third and 1 or 0 outs is better than a strikeout. As is a strikeout is better with a guy on 1st and 0 outs than a groundout. But those are all game specific situations that you can easily look at for a given player if you want to use that in your judgement of a hitters offensive ability.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Exactly. It's a useful approximation, but its only as useful as its inputs and we (the fans) don't have the best inputs.
The people calculating WAR do a heck of a job so it's easy to use the stat as a baseline. There are also measure that take into account actual play by play.
You can use whatever you want, but Kemp probably isn't going to be worth what he paid. It's not like he's gonna have hidden value in moving runners along or hidden value in base running. His value is going to be in hitting homeruns, because it is essentially his only tool.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Not really (IMO). If we were to devise a version of WAR that's more predictive (much like fWAR for pitchers) than that would matter. I agree that looking backwards that it's very good.
I mean we are still at the point where we think a normal BABIP is based mostly on speed. That's certainly not true, but we still haven't found a good way to explain it differently.
chop2chip
Well-known member
We could go down the useless rabbit hole of the unreliability of defensive metrics (don't read that as defensive statistics aren't meaningful), but I think I would rather chew on tinfoil.
But, we know Kemp is a terrible defender. It is just a discussion on how bad he is.
chop2chip
Well-known member
We do know he's bad, but how confident are you in saying how many wins less he is based on that?
Kemp isn't a good player, but we didn't acquire him at the price of a good player. We can argue the pointlessness of trading for him, but I think the marketing reasons make it fairly obvious.
And who knows, maybe he hits 40 homeruns next year and isn't a complete butcher on defense.
I can use WAR as a guide. He could be a little better, he could be a little worse. We did acquire him at the price of a decent player in terms of salary.
Maybe he hits 40 homers, maybe he misses half the year with a bad hip. We can just go by what we have.
Sure. To me pitching WAR should not be predictive based if your positional war is results based. However I understand Fangraphs reasoning behind it because they feel they would be counting defense twice but I don't see it that way. BABIP as several factors and speed is one of them. But I think most people are coming around that's it's based just as much off batted ball type.
The Braves added 26 million in payroll and are paying that over 3 years. To me that's not a decent player salary on the open market. It's not even average.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Then you are using WAR correctly, i.e. as an approximation. You aren't the targeted audience for my condescension.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
Let me put it this way. I would hope my GM is not basing any decisions off a flawed, convoluted statistic where part of it is based off a calculated value on an aspect of that game where you simply cannot calculate the value.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
No disagreement from me. I have shouted loud and long that keeping Teheran and even Freeman make no sense in the context of what they are trying to accomplish given a reasonable return in trade.
If 2018 is the first year that the team could reasonably expect to play winning baseball, and I think it is without question UNLESS they get your above average players as outlined, then the BEST you can hope for out of Teheran and Freeman is likely to be as good then as they are today, only their value won't be as high because they will be more expensive and under less control AND 2 years older.
The smart thing to do would be to trade both for the best package available (which should be good indeed considering what was traded by teams the last month), then use their money as part of a package to bring in FA at or around the time when you are reasonably competing. You could trade Freeman today (or at least last week) for some package and then go hard after Hosmer after the 2017 season as an example.
It might be different if either were NAME players that would draw fans simply because the casual fan would recognize their name. But neither are. Both are very good players (today) who have very good trade value (today) who likely won't be as good or valuable in 2018.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Tehran should not be dealt w/o an impact bat that is MLB ready as the center piece. My understanding is that such an offer was not made. In the case of the sox that would need to be Moncada or Benintindi, not Devers.
Tehran is under control for many more years. He could finish this year and NEXT year with the braves and still be traded with 3 years of team control. 3 years.
There is still time for someone to feel they are one pitcher away and give up that bat (s).
Maybe the Sox lose in the playoffs in a lot of 9-7 games. Maybe the braves think Swihart can catch. Maybe we can get Benintindi and Swihart as our base package.
Tehran is under control for many more years. He could finish this year and NEXT year with the braves and still be traded with 3 years of team control. 3 years.
There is still time for someone to feel they are one pitcher away and give up that bat (s).
Maybe the Sox lose in the playoffs in a lot of 9-7 games. Maybe the braves think Swihart can catch. Maybe we can get Benintindi and Swihart as our base package.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Maybe Teheran is the reincarnation of Cy Young. Maybe he blows out his elbow tomorrow. Maybe he gains 4mph on his fastball, pushes his K/9 up to 12 and becomes a true ace pitcher that no team wants to face. Maybe he regresses to a mid 3 era pitcher who looks like a decent 2 or good 3. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe.
His value is high now. NOW. The market was there now. NOW. As for who comes in return, you want quality above all and it doesn't have to be someone 1/2 a season away since by trading Teheran, you are admitting that 2017 isn't the year anyway. Bottom line is that a lot of high end prospects either got moved or were at least available to be moved, as evidenced by what happened. And the Braves didn't get any of them.
What a bummer that August 1, 2016 was the last possible time we could trade him, huh?
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Does Atlanta have a football team?