GDT 4/5 - Colon @ deGrom

Anyone want to take a stab as to why Kemp has a -.1 dWAR? Has there been any kind of play that was even close which wasn't made?
 
striker42 said:
Impressive:
Colon- The velocity was surprising and I doubt it sticks around consistently but with the way his fastball moves he can be successful without it. As long as he can command that fastball, he'll be successful.

Johnson- That was the Jim Johnson that saved 50 games. I think it was Reyes that he faced as his first batter and Reyes had no chance. When you're throwing a 94 MPH fastball, the ball has more movement than most guys sliders, and you're able to locate it, no one is barreling you up. Like with Colon, I doubt that's the Johnson we get all year but that was still good to see.

Kemp- One thing is certain, Kemp still has bat speed. He's still able to let a pitch get deep and turn on it with violence.

Dansby- Only 1 for 6 but he was impressive in the field. I love that he can quickly transfer and release while still getting something on the throw.

Unimpressive-
Markakis- I'm probably in the minority here in that I like the guy and think he still can contribute but he was overmatched by deGrom last night. He had some ugly at bats. However, he did redeem himself with a big triple. Probably not the smartest move going to third as he's probably out if Walker gets anything on the relay, but I love the hustle.

Bonifacio- You have a full count with the bases loaded in a close game. You have to sit on the fastball. The pitcher isn't going to want to walk in a run there so you're probably getting something in the zone (probably a fastball). You sit on the fastball and try to foul off if it's off speed. Bonifacio gets a fastball that's straight as an arrow, belt high, down the middle, and 88 MPH. It was a batting practice fastball. And he was late. Very late. He obviously wasn't expecting the fastball.
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Agreed on all counts aside from Markakis. The pitching we have faced to start the games have been incredible. He will be his typical self and be a productive bat with defense that is far better than what the chocountry community believes.
 
msstate7 said:
Already? Lol... probably just didn't look good catching the ball
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This is one of the reasons I wanted to make a case study out of Kemp and see just how much the eye test lines up with the computation.

There was not one play that happened in Kemps vicinity that should have resulted in any negative defensive value. Maybe this corrects itself over the course of the season but only two games in and the metric is already showing to be suspect in my opinion.
 
thethe said:
Agreed on all counts aside from Markakis. The pitching we have faced to start the games have been incredible. He will be his typical self and be a productive bat with defense that is far better than what the chocountry community believes.
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I think he'll settle in fine. I'm actually a fan on Markakis. This was just a one game snapshot.
 
Well, facing those two pitchers back to back is tough. Any batter (even a very good one), will have some bad at bats against those two.
 
thethe said:
Anyone want to take a stab as to why Kemp has a -.1 dWAR? Has there been any kind of play that was even close which wasn't made?
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My first guess is the negative penalty by playing left. Again if you are average among left fielders then your overall dWAR is going to be negative because it's so low on the defensive spectrum.
 
thewupk said:
My first guess is the negative penalty by playing left. Again if you are average among left fielders then your overall dWAR is going to be negative because it's so low on the defensive spectrum.
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System is flawed from that perspective. There is absolutely no reason why Kemp should have a negative defensive value to the braves. Basically if this was prorated to a season he would have negative 8.1 dWAR and not cost the braves anything? Shenanigans!
 
thethe said:
System is flawed from that perspective. There is absolutely no reason why Kemp should have a negative defensive value to the braves. Basically if this was prorated to a season he would have negative 8.1 dWAR and not cost the braves anything? Shenanigans!
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No, you just clearly have no idea how the system works. There is no defensive data for anybody right now 2 games in. But we can calculate the positional adjustment. Fun fact: Every corner outfieler to have played 2 games has -.1 dWAR right now on fangraphs.

And yes if you are an average left fielder on the year and have either 0 +/- or 0 UZR then you are going to be around -7 to -8 dWAR depending on how many games you play. Because that stat compares you to every other player in baseball and not just those at your position. The same way an average centerfielder or shortstop is going to have a positive dWAR.

But none of this is new and something I'm sure you know anyways.
 
There was one ball into left center that Ender ran down, but I thought a good left fielder would have actually made the play

But other than that, I don't think he's not gotten to anything
 
thewupk said:
No, you just clearly have no idea how the system works. There is no defensive data for anybody right now 2 games in. But we can calculate the positional adjustment. Fun fact: Every corner outfieler to have played 2 games has -.1 dWAR right now on fangraphs.

And yes if you are an average left fielder on the year and have either 0 +/- or 0 UZR then you are going to be around -7 to -8 dWAR depending on how many games you play. Because that stat compares you to every other player in baseball and not just those at your position. The same way an average centerfielder or shortstop is going to have a positive dWAR.

But none of this is new and something I'm sure you know anyways.
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Then a LF with a dWAR of -7 is really an average fielder not a bad fielder?
 
sturg33 said:
There was one ball into left center that Ender ran down, but I thought a good left fielder would have actually made the play

But other than that, I don't think he's not gotten to anything
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I'm glad that this is how it played out. I want ender making every play possible.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Then a LF with a dWAR of -7 is really an average fielder not a bad fielder?
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Depends how you want to look at it. He's average for his position but I would consider him below average when compared to the rest of baseball. When you look at the raw stat, be it DRS or UZR, then that number is comparing you to other plays at your position. When you look at dWAR then that stat generally includes the positional adjustment you need for WAR.
 
cajunrevenge said:
is the negative defensive WAR just because he plays LF and thats considered a less premium defensive position?
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Yes. Otherwise a LF who saves 5 runs would be valued the same as a CF who saves 5 runs. And I would hope that most people can see that wouldn't make sense.
 
thewupk said:
Yes. Otherwise a LF who saves 5 runs would be valued the same as a CF who saves 5 runs. And I would hope that most people can see that wouldn't make sense.
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Why would the lf saving runs be any less valueable. Zero sum game here.
 
thethe said:
Why would the lf saving runs be any less valueable. Zero sum game here.
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Because the position is easier to play and has worse defenders playing it. If a LF saves 5 runs a year and moved to center I seriously doubt he would still be saving 5 runs a year. Should he be penalized for that in WAR? His actual defensive ability hasn't changed. Just the position and the players he's being compared to.
 
thewupk said:
Because the position is easier to play and has worse defenders playing it. If a LF saves 5 runs a year and moved to center I seriously doubt he would still be saving 5 runs a year. Should he be penalized for that in WAR? His actual defensive ability hasn't changed. Just the position and the players he's being compared to.
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A run is a run. Your argument should be that a CF has the ability and does save more runs.
 
thethe said:
A run is a run. Your argument should be that a CF has the ability and does save more runs.
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You can argue it however you want. An average defensive LF is not as valuable as an average defensive CF. WAR accurately accounts for this.
 
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