MINORS FINAL THURSDAY 5/4 ... Allard reigns supreme
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
Tapate50
Well-known member
I don't think after the first few starts anyone was thinking otherwise. I'd think top 20 in midseason lists pretty easily?
No question. Can't imagine there are more than a handful of prospects who have dominated at his level and his age. I think even the most level headed fans could argue that Allard is a potential Ace pitcher.
We'll see, certainly possible. It will be interesting to see what they do with him vs. Soroka.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Posi Brave here.. but again. B'ham Barons are absolute trash outside of pitching. There offense is garbage.. but again, he did what he was supposed to do. I expect the next two guys will do just as well today and tomorrow.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yeah. I think his chances for the Top 20 are pretty good. The front office did a good job evaluating where he should be placed.
Yep, and you still have to make the pitches either way.
I would put Allard a cut above everyone else. They break down into the following tiers:
Allard (legit 1-2 guy)
Soroka (legit 3-4 guys)
Anderson
Gohara
Newcomb (likely BP guys)
Fried
Wentz
Touki
Blair
Wisler
Muller
Sims
Sanchez
Weigel (wildcard)
Braves will be lucky to have 2 of the Allard/Soroka/Anderson/Gohara group turn into legit MLB SPs. I'm going to guess Allard ends up producing like Quintana, and Soroka puts together a Derek Lowe type career without that one huge outlier season.
They will also be lucky to have 3-4 of the next group catch on as 3+ career WAR BP arms. Whichever ones figure out their control and/or stay healthy will have a 5+ year MLB career.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
We have a big 4 and everyone else. I do think from the entire group listed the yield will be 5 guys who have significant careers as major league starters. And by that I mean make over 50 major league starts. I would be happy with that kind of outcome.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Encouraging to see Herbert on helium watch for BA... I was really hoping for big things regarding Herbert
That would be nearly unprecedented in the history of MLB prospect "groups".
The first wave of Top 100 pitchers from the rebuild consisted of Folty (#59), Wisler (#35), Jenkins (#94), Blair (#40), and Newcomb (#24). Going by historical averages, the Braves would have been lucky if 1-2 ended up with 3+ career WAR, and 1-2 more ended up posting 0+ WAR. Folty looks like he will be the lone 3+ career guy. Wisler busted, Blair is busting, Newcomb is on the road to bustville, and Jenkins is a AAAA arm.
Before the rebuild, the Braves had 3 elite pitchers in Teheran (#5), Delgado (#35) and Viz (#40). Odds said they would be lucky to have 1 guy produce 3+ career WAR, while the others would produce almost nothing. Teheran turned into the stud (13.4 career WAR), while Viz (0.6 career WAR), and Delgado (1.7 career WAR) have carved out mediocre careers as BP arms.
There is nothing special about this current group of pitching prospects, just like there was nothing special about the Teheran or Folty groups that came before them.
However, it should be pointed out that Teheran was on a completely different tier of prospect status than anyone else mentioned here (though Allard may push to that level). Top 10 pitching prospects have a MUCH better rate of success than the guys ranked #25+.
msstate7
Well-known member
What do you not like about Ian anderson?
I think you're conservative on the extreme end, but we'll see.
April was a very good for our pitching prospects in general. As the Hotsheet notes, the month was not kind to a lot of top pitching prospects throughout baseball, yet just about all of ours at least maintained their status, with several improving theirs.
Calling someone a legit 3-4 MLB SP does not qualify as "not liking him".
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
This seems awfully pessimistic if you are talking stuff. If you are talking likely outcome then ok. It makes more sense to bet to lose b/c the odds are forever in your favor.
Soroka I get not putting in 1-2 b/c the stuff isn't electric.
Anderson looks like he has what you need to be a 1-2. Third pitch. Fill out. Stay healthy. There are a lot of super highly ranked guys you could say that about.
Gohara has to have a ceiling higher than 3. He's a lefty with stuff. Power stuff.
Newcombe is still a 3-4 guy to me. Even if he's nasty with a bad inning or good start/bad start he's better than a lot of guys. I think he and Folty settle into that really good 3 space with 5 awful starts a year.
Fried is a stud. I know people are down based on a couple bad starts. I get the arm history. If he's healthy he's a stud. Needs a full year at AA and AAA first.
Wentz and Muller I've never liked and would like to see hit. I don't like low velocity out of those guys.
Touki I think will either be a 1-2 or nothing. My bet is on nothing. I don't see him being a bp guy. The 1-2 potential is easily there for me.
Sims I see as a 5th starter. A good 5th starter. Maybe in that 3-4 if people think he can get more movement on his FB. I'd say 4-5 but that's not a category you listed.
Sanchez I see as nothing. It's prospect fatigue and he's still super young. But he's just a guy IMO.
Weigel I see as a 4-5 or a bp ace. is The third pitch that good to be a higher guy?
Blair and Wisler I see as maybe long relievers.
With all of these starters I'd like to see them go to a multi inning RP model. I think some of these guys could turn over a roster once pretty well. Then have Cabrera and Minter as your R/L power guys.
I don't really care how 40th prospects have done historically. Not every 40th prospect is the same. I get that history helps predict the future but that doesn't really give us the full picture as to the caliber of prospects that these kids are.
The calculus of this projection changes significantly if Anderson/Gohara/Soroka continue to produce. So what changes then? The pitcher hasn't changed. Just the scouting communities ranking of them.
The calculus of this projection changes significantly if Anderson/Gohara/Soroka continue to produce. So what changes then? The pitcher hasn't changed. Just the scouting communities ranking of them.
I still don't get the reluctance to project Newcomb as a productive MLB starter. There are probably only 10 pitchers in all of the minor leagues that have his build/stuff profile. The control is an issue but hitters in the minor leagues have shown two things: (1) They can't barrel up the ball against him as evidenced by his crazy low BAA (2) Newcomb is an elite strikeout pitcher
The only thing stopping Newcomb is Newcomb. It sure isn't the opposing batter.
The only thing stopping Newcomb is Newcomb. It sure isn't the opposing batter.
Here are how Top 100 pitching prospctes have fared since 1990:
Rank < 3 WAR 0 or less WAR
#1-10 4.55% 0%
#11-25 44.19% 27.91%
#26-50 41.18% 23.53%
#51-75 69.23% 44.23%
#76-100 65.49% 43.36%
According to my notes, the Braves have 6-7 guys that all fall into the 40%-70% bust range. That means odds are 2-4 of these guys will produce 3+ WAR in their career.
I just so happen to think the 2 that will be legit SPs are Allard and Soroka. A few of the others will carve out mediocre BP careers, with 1-2 of them compiling 3+ WAR over a 5+ year career.
I fail to see how any rational person can conclude these Braves pitching prospects will be unique compared to all pitching prospects since 1990. We as Braves fans have literally seen these pitcher attrition numbers play out right before our eyes with several sets of pitching prospects, yet some still insist on concluding "this group is different".
Why? What makes this group so special other than they are the current group everyone wants to see succeed?