nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
so 5?...i think enscheff is saying 3-4
MINORS FINAL THURSDAY 5/4 ... Allard reigns supreme
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
so 5?...i think enscheff is saying 3-4
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Its way too early to say, but Allard, Anderson, and Gohara could all easily end up being top 10 prospects. Its not hard to see how this next wave of pitching is quite a bit ahead of the last wave. The ceilings of this wave are much higher... Wisler and Blair were never thought to have huge ceilings... they were thought to have a ceiling of a serviceable MLB starter. Anderson Allard, and Gohara have TOR ceilings... add Soroka into that as well possibly.
He said we would be lucky to have 3-4 that would have greater than 3WAR.
I think the 5 is what is going to happen. If we got lucky I think its close to 7. Unlucky I think we get 2.
I have no idea. We'll have to wait and see, that's part of what makes it fun.
If I had to throw out a number, I would say that out of the following group:
Allard
Soroka
Anderson
Newcomb
Fried
Weigel
Gohara
Touki
Wentz
Muller
I would be happy if we ended up with 4-5 guys who became legitimate SPs. In terms of what is meant by 'significant,' I don't know. Obviously there is injury risk among those who make it as well. I consider guys like Sims, Sanchez, B. Wilson, and Harrington as just hopes without any real expectations tied.
The idea that we can go ahead and cut over half the group into RPs and then take the rest and cut those at least in half is a bit much, IMO.
Enscheff is saying 2.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I couldn't pick people. Not sure what the definition is of significant. But I'd probably say 25%.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The history is more on his side. That's why I said I would be happy if we got 5. Very happy.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'm not asking you to pick who will make it. Just how many out of that group will have significant careers as starters. Say 50 or more starts in the majors. How many currently in the farm system will do that.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
How many do you say.
Good example. Let's look at the guys we see as "hits":
Syndergaard (#11) - 7.8 career WAR, best RHer in game, currently injured
Wheeler (#11) - 2.2 career WAR, major injury issues
deGrom (NR) - 12.7 career WAR, legit 1-2
Harvey (#54) - 11.8 career WAR, struggling with coming back from injury this year and last
Matz (#13) - 3.8 career WAR, currently injured
Harvey made his debut in 2012. Let's list the pitchers in the Top 100 for the Mets from 2010 through 2015 when Matz debuted:
Mejia (#48) - 1.0 career WAR, hasn't pitched since 2015
Familia (#89) - 6 career WAR as a BP arm
Fulmer (#47) - 5.7 career WAR
Syndergaard, Matz and Wheeler fall into the Top 10 group with Teheran where the bust rate is much lower, and it looks like Wheeler is going to bust. The group of Harvey, Mejia, Familia, and Fulmer produced right about what the odds suggested...2 legit SPs, a legit BP guy, and a complete bust.
Sorry, but the Braves don't have guys at the level of Syndergaard, Matz and Wheeler (except maybe Allard). Comparing these groups of prospects is not apples to apples.
I said happy with 4-5.
Yeah, they are arguing just to argue.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think you also need to factor in one relatively less heralded guy making it. Such as Gselman. Btw what is your number for expected number of pitchers currently in our minor league system who will make 50 or more major league starts.
So the odds suggest that for a group ranked 47, 48, 54, and 89, you will get 2 legit SPs? Because that is not what you have suggested about the Braves group.
You said 2. There is a pretty sizable difference between 2 and 4-5.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I just asked him. Let him tell us. Maybe the difference is not as dramatic as we think.
Let's pump the brakes on Gsellman. Dude has produced 0.7 WAR over 71 IP so far.
2-3 from the Allard/Anderson/Gohara/Soroka group. 2-3 from the "other group".
However, I do not consider 50 starts to be a measure of success. For example, I consider Familia going from #89 to 6 WAR out of the BP a success. I do not consider some "stuff" former top prospect getting chance after chance at the MLB level to "figure it out" a success because he was able to compile 50 replacement level starts.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I'd feel good about 3. Could easily see 5.
You really need to work on your reading comprehension. Here's another chance to actually comprehend what I wrote:
"I just so happen to think the 2 that will be legit SPs are Allard and Soroka. A few of the others will carve out mediocre BP careers, with 1-2 of them compiling 3+ WAR over a 5+ year career."
I said 2 legit guys I compared to Quintana and Lowe, and 1-2 more compiling significant BP careers. So yes, 3-5 guys that produced 3+ WAR and weren't busts. Pretty much exactly what happened with the Mets group of sub-Top-10 prospects.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Well i put out 50 starts so we are all talking about the same thing. You are looking at WAR which obviously will put up some value for the guys who end up as relievers.
There is one thing I will point out about your Mets post. I believe you listed the peak ranking of the players in question. In some cases we can make a good case we haven't seen the peak rankings of the Braves prospects. All the guys on your top 4 list--Allard, Soroka, Anderson and Gohara--will probably move up quite a bit when the mid-season rankings come out let alone the 2018 rankings. So that leads to underestimating the outcomes for our group a bit relative to the historical analysis you did.