MINORS FINAL THURSDAY 5/4 ... Allard reigns supreme

[msstate7]

Calling someone a legit 3-4 MLB SP does not qualify as "not liking him".

Yeah, I didn't mean it like that. I just figured you'd like anderson more bc of Ks

Allard -- 33.0 ip 28 k 7 bb .210 avg

Anderson -- 24.0 ip 30 k 14 bb .190 avg

Obviously Anderson has to cut down on walks, but that k rate is really impressive

 

[Enscheff]

I don't really care how 40th prospects have done historically. Not every 40th prospect is the same. I get that history helps predict the future but that doesn't really give us the full picture as to the caliber of prospects that these kids are.

The calculus of this projection changes significantly if Anderson/Gohara/Soroka continue to produce. So what changes then? The pitcher hasn't changed. Just the scouting communities ranking of them.

Yes, we all know you have no concern for facts.

This data is compiled from the last 25 years of prospect lists. Prospects have been climbing up and dropping down these very same lists for the last 25 years, and this data is the end result of all that movement.

Nothing is different now than it has been the last 25 years, but don't let facts get in the way of a good Posi-Brave rant.

 

[thethe]

If Anderson/Gohara continue to have the seasons they are having we may see Anderson as a top 25 prospect and Gohara as top 50.

Then these projections are different. To me its just a lazy analysis. It has merits but you need to dig deeper to see the whole picture.

 

[Enscheff]

Yeah, I didn't mean it like that. I just figured you'd like anderson more bc of Ks

Allard -- 33.0 ip 28 k 7 bb .210 avg
Anderson -- 24.0 ip 30 k 14 bb .190 avg

Obviously Anderson has to cut down on walks, but that k rate is really impressive

Allard is 19 and doing it in AA. The jump from A+ to AA is the 2nd biggest jump in talent in organized baseball, and Allard skipped A+ entirely. We could be hearing whispers from uninformed fans and commentators about Allard being called up THIS year (as terrible an idea as that would be). Allard has clearly separated himself, and is the only one even coming close to Teheran's prospect status.

 

[Enscheff]

If Anderson/Gohara continue to have the seasons they are having we may see Anderson as a top 25 prospect and Gohara as top 50.

Then these projections are different. To me its just a lazy analysis. It has merits but you need to dig deeper to see the whole picture.

And what would change? The bust rate doesn't go down until pitchers are considered Top 10.

Nothing will change your mind though. This group is completely unprecedented in your mind.

What did you think about the Folty and Teheran groups of pitchers? Bet you $100 you were wildly optimistic about them too. I bet I can go find posts you made listing them in future rotations for the next 5 years.

But this group? THIS group is different!!

 

[thethe]

Yes, we all know you have no concern for facts.

This data is compiled from the last 25 years of prospect lists. Prospects have been climbing up and dropping down these very same lists for the last 25 years, and this data is the end result of all that movement.

Nothing is different now than it has been the last 25 years, but don't let facts get in the way of a good Posi-Brave rant.

So a 24 year old 40th prospect is the same as a 19 year old 40th prospect? We should project them to succeed at the same rate?

 

[thethe]

And what would change? The bust rate doesn't go down until pitchers are considered Top 10.

Nothing will change your mind though. This group is completely unprecedented in your mind.

What did you think about the Folty and Teheran groups of pitchers? Bet you $100 you were wildly optimistic about them too. I bet I can go find posts you made listing them in future rotations for the next 5 years.

But this group? THIS group is different!!

Well for starters those groups had 3 pitchers.

This group goes 6-8 deep with legit arms. Something else that makes it different, at least from the Folty group, AGE. Do you not think that matters?

 

[nsacpi]

That would be nearly unprecedented in the history of MLB prospect "groups".

The first wave of Top 100 pitchers from the rebuild consisted of Folty (#59), Wisler (#35), Jenkins (#94), Blair (#40), and Newcomb (#24). Going by historical averages, the Braves would have been lucky if 1-2 ended up with 3+ career WAR, and 1-2 more ended up posting 0+ WAR. Folty looks like he will be the lone 3+ career guy. Wisler busted, Blair is busting, Newcomb is on the road to bustville, and Jenkins is a AAAA arm.

Before the rebuild, the Braves had 3 elite pitchers in Teheran (#5), Delgado (#35) and Viz (#40). Odds said they would be lucky to have 1 guy produce 3+ career WAR, while the others would produce almost nothing. Teheran turned into the stud (13.4 career WAR), while Viz (0.6 career WAR), and Delgado (1.7 career WAR) have carved out mediocre careers as BP arms.

There is nothing special about this current group of pitching prospects, just like there was nothing special about the Teheran or Folty groups that came before them.

However, it should be pointed out that Teheran was on a completely different tier of prospect status than anyone else mentioned here (though Allard may push to that level). Top 10 pitching prospects have a MUCH better rate of success than the guys ranked #25+.

the comparison I would make would be with other farm systems deep in pitching...the Mets four years ago for example

 

[Enscheff]

Well for starters those groups had 3 pitchers.

This group goes 6-8 deep with legit arms. Something else that makes it different, at least from the Folty group, AGE. Do you not think that matters?

Should I go dig up your "predictions" of rotations including Teheran, Viz and Delgado? How about the ones where you projected Wisler and Blair in the rotation for the next 5 years?

You have been wrong about every single thing I've ever seen you try to forecast. You were wrong then, and you are wrong now.

Will you ever learn?

 

[thethe]

the comparison I would make would be with other farm systems deep in pitching...the Mets four years ago for example

Thats depressing considering their injuries. Hopefully we are a bit more fortunate.

 

[thethe]

Should I go dig up your "predictions" of rotations including Teheran, Viz and Delgado? How about the ones where you projected Wisler and Blair in the rotation for the next 5 years?

You have been wrong about every single thing I've ever seen you try to forecast. You were wrong then, and you are wrong now.

Will you ever learn?

Please do sir.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Here are how Top 100 pitching prospctes have fared since 1990:

Rank < 3 WAR 0 or less WAR

#1-10 4.55% 0%

#11-25 44.19% 27.91%

#26-50 41.18% 23.53%

#51-75 69.23% 44.23%

#76-100 65.49% 43.36%

According to my notes, the Braves have 6-7 guys that all fall into the 40%-70% bust range. That means odds are 2-4 of these guys will produce 3+ WAR in their career.

I just so happen to think the 2 that will be legit SPs are Allard and Soroka. A few of the others will carve out mediocre BP careers, with 1-2 of them compiling 3+ WAR over a 5+ year career.

I fail to see how any rational person can conclude these Braves pitching prospects will be unique compared to all pitching prospects since 1990. We as Braves fans have literally seen these pitcher attrition numbers play out right before our eyes with several sets of pitching prospects, yet some still insist on concluding "this group is different".

Why? What makes this group so special other than they are the current group everyone wants to see succeed?

how do you fix them in a category?

Allard was top 50 or so before the season. Now he might be top 25. Which category do they go in? Gohara could easily jump up a ton. Soroka and Fried could too. Anderson started high but he could be top 10 at some point. Touki fell out but it's not crazy to see him back in if he kills it in AA.

 

[nsacpi]

This seems awfully pessimistic if you are talking stuff. If you are talking likely outcome then ok. It makes more sense to bet to lose b/c the odds are forever in your favor.

Soroka I get not putting in 1-2 b/c the stuff isn't electric.

Anderson looks like he has what you need to be a 1-2. Third pitch. Fill out. Stay healthy. There are a lot of super highly ranked guys you could say that about.

Gohara has to have a ceiling higher than 3. He's a lefty with stuff. Power stuff.

Newcombe is still a 3-4 guy to me. Even if he's nasty with a bad inning or good start/bad start he's better than a lot of guys. I think he and Folty settle into that really good 3 space with 5 awful starts a year.

Fried is a stud. I know people are down based on a couple bad starts. I get the arm history. If he's healthy he's a stud. Needs a full year at AA and AAA first.

Wentz and Muller I've never liked and would like to see hit. I don't like low velocity out of those guys.

Touki I think will either be a 1-2 or nothing. My bet is on nothing. I don't see him being a bp guy. The 1-2 potential is easily there for me.

Sims I see as a 5th starter. A good 5th starter. Maybe in that 3-4 if people think he can get more movement on his FB. I'd say 4-5 but that's not a category you listed.

Sanchez I see as nothing. It's prospect fatigue and he's still super young. But he's just a guy IMO.

Weigel I see as a 4-5 or a bp ace. is The third pitch that good to be a higher guy?

Blair and Wisler I see as maybe long relievers.

With all of these starters I'd like to see them go to a multi inning RP model. I think some of these guys could turn over a roster once pretty well. Then have Cabrera and Minter as your R/L power guys.

how many would you expect to have significant careers as major league starting pitchers

 

[smootness]

Allard is 19 and doing it in AA. The jump from A+ to AA is the 2nd biggest jump in talent in organized baseball, and Allard skipped A+ entirely. We could be hearing whispers from uninformed fans and commentators about Allard being called up THIS year (as terrible an idea as that would be). Allard has clearly separated himself, and is the only one even coming close to Teheran's prospect status.

Soroka is doing the exact same thing.

 

[nsacpi]

I think you're conservative on the extreme end, but we'll see.

April was a very good for our pitching prospects in general. As the Hotsheet notes, the month was not kind to a lot of top pitching prospects throughout baseball, yet just about all of ours at least maintained their status, with several improving theirs.

how many would u expect to have significant careers as starters

 

[nsacpi]

I don't really care how 40th prospects have done historically. Not every 40th prospect is the same. I get that history helps predict the future but that doesn't really give us the full picture as to the caliber of prospects that these kids are.

The calculus of this projection changes significantly if Anderson/Gohara/Soroka continue to produce. So what changes then? The pitcher hasn't changed. Just the scouting communities ranking of them.

how many would you expect to have significant careers as starters

 

[smootness]

So a 24 year old 40th prospect is the same as a 19 year old 40th prospect? We should project them to succeed at the same rate?

This is the part Enscheff consistently misses, even though he has admitted that the younger prospect is better.

The WAR values tied to prospect ranking are informative, but they are far from complete analysis.

 

[thethe]

how many would you expect to have significant careers as starters

I think Allard is going to be an ACE
Newcomb will be a MOR
Anderson will be a MOR (but once we see more of this I think he has ACE level ceiling)

Out of Fried/Soroka/Gohara/Sims I think we get one multiple year arm that produces at a MOR or back end.

Then the remainder of the pitching on the farm will produce one more MOR to back-end starter.

 

[mfree80]

Yes, we all know you have no concern for facts.

This data is compiled from the last 25 years of prospect lists. Prospects have been climbing up and dropping down these very same lists for the last 25 years, and this data is the end result of all that movement.

Nothing is different now than it has been the last 25 years, but don't let facts get in the way of a good Posi-Brave rant.

"Facts" is an interesting choice of words there. Facts are good, but should be tempered by context. What people are doing is saying that the context makes this group potentially different than simple prospect ratings suggest. Just looking at the numbers (facts) misses some important data that does matter in the discussion.

 

[thethe]

This is the part Enscheff consistently misses, even though he has admitted that the younger prospect is better.

The WAR values tied to prospect ranking are informative, but they are far from complete analysis.

Agreed. Its just a lazy analysis.

When Allard is a top 10 guy this time next year / Anderson is top 25 / Soroka is top 50 / Gohara top 50 - This all changes. Not to mention all the other arms that have improved their stocks this year.