Kemp and the Quest for 1 bWAR

I don't think that its more or less likely that a bad defensive play could cost you a game in the postseason or in the regular season.

Over 162 games, I don't think its especially likely that the cumulative number of game deciding bad defensive plays by a left fielder is likely to decide whether a team makes the postseason.

Over a playoff series, should you have the bad luck to have one of those games, it could very well decide the series.

It would be less likely to have one of those games in a seven game series than it would be to have one in a 162 game season. It would just be potentially more impactful in a playoff series.

I don't think talking about playoff series is a particular relevant discussion in relation to the current Atlanta Braves roster. If the playoffs are relevant then the front office has done a better job than anyone thinks.

So its bit moot.

This just doesn't make sense. If those plays are random and sparse, why would Kemp be more likely to make them than anyone else?
 
I can think of at least a couple of posters who thought he'd OPS around .775. While that isn't bad, it certainly isn't very good either. Especially for a LFer.

He could end up an OPS in the mid .900's and certain posters would still think he's trash and it was a dumb move.

Kemp had an OPS that ranged from 723 to 803 in 3 of the last 4 years. Was predicting 775 really that off base?
 
Anyone want to take a wager of the author of the following quote:

A team can win with a high power low on base lawn ornament in LF. They can't win with multiple players like that, but Kemp sitting in the 4 hole hitting 30+ HRs and a low .300 OBP is going to make the offense better.

Please enlighten us.
 
I'm honestly not sure what this means. Are you saying that there's no way Kemp's D comes close to negating his offense? Because that has been true this year. Has it been true consistently every year? No. And if you acknowledge that defense has value, then it has to impact his overall value.

What I mean is that it looks by the eye test and stats he's a **** defender

I haven't seen him miss enough plays to come close to making any noticeable impact on his offense.

Most teams don't have trout. You have to weigh pluses and minuses. Kemp has been an above avg addition as a brave imo

I don't buy the garbage math that he's only costing us 3/27. I don't think he'll sustain this offense. And I don't get someone at his stage of career on our team. Let's move him while we can
 
There is definitely an inefficiency there. I think it was smart to lock up Ender for what they did. Also in the same vein I think it was a mistake to trade Simmons for what they did.

I agree

I think the mistake on ender is making him a lead off guy. On a power offense he should be hitting 7-9. He's a competent hitter, esp for cf, but he needs to be later in the lineup

I will always think the simba deal was done with coppy knowing he had Swanson on the table. I hated it then and I hate it now. Again it's not simbas fault we sucked and tried to bat him second.

If the braves could get better hitters then we could win games and let ppl be what they are.

Hamate injury often saps power for a year or more. So I'm worried about d Peterson. But I was very high on him and hope to be again. All of the writers I typically read thought he was a no doubt strong hitter and solid corner defender. That's what we need at two. He will only do like 15 hrs but he can hit and drive the ball
 
This just doesn't make sense. If those plays are random and sparse, why would Kemp be more likely to make them than anyone else?

I didn't say that either. This really shouldn't be such an ordeal. An error in the playoffs can be more costly than an error in the regular season. It's no more likely that an error would occur in a playoff game than it would be to occur in a regular season game. It's fairly unlikely to be a game changing play, but the Braves would be unlucky to have it happen.

Kemp's increased or decreased likelihood of making such a play would be related to his defensive ability compared to whomever you would like to compare him to.
 
Kemp had an OPS that ranged from 723 to 803 in 3 of the last 4 years. Was predicting 775 really that off base?

He was hurt and/or playing in poor hitting parks for much of that time. Also pretty clear he hated playing for San Diego. I think after how he finished last season it was pretty evident he still had some life in his bat.
 
It is possible to lose WAR so who knows

Sure but it certainly doesn't look like Kemps bat will allow him to go backwards in WAR. Even in my ultimate positivity could I have seen this. I didn't think he would OPS over 900 but only slightly.
 
I'll put this here....assuming the following two things: 1) Kemp continues to Mash, and 2) Dustin Peterson has another excellent season

Do we trade Kemp and if so what should we expect in return?
 
I'll put this here....assuming the following two things: 1) Kemp continues to Mash, and 2) Dustin Peterson has another excellent season

Do we trade Kemp and if so what should we expect in return?

If we can trade Kemp and free up all 18 million then yes we should do that.
 
I think you need to be more specific about what you mean by this.

He posted impressive numbers at a young age in a pitchers park. If he builds on that with more development. I don't think hitting a certain threshold holds any more value than visible improvement by our scouts.
 
I'll put this here....assuming the following two things: 1) Kemp continues to Mash, and 2) Dustin Peterson has another excellent season

Do we trade Kemp and if so what should we expect in return?

I would love to

I doubt coppy would. Coppy seems to love him. Had him listed in long term piece

I think it's much more likely that Peterson replaces markakis
 
What is the significance of 18m when the roster is projected to be filled with so many internal candidates making next to nothing?

Having a potential and somewhat likely albatross on your roster should be avoided if at all possible. I like Kemp a lot, but he has been injury prone or just seemed to lack interest at times. If someone will take his entire contract and give us a decent player as well, we should definitely do it.
 
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