I guess it depends on when you think our realistic timetable is to compete. As it stands we have Markakis through 2018 and Kemp through 2019. Together they cost the Braves around 29 million in salary. Who is going to be a star free agent after the 2018 season? If we could move Kemp then we would have 29 million off the books to go after someone to push us over the edge with our young team. If 2020 is your time frame then I would try and move Kemp and possibly eat a lot of the contract to get someone who can help us in the future. Then we are done paying for Kemp after 2019 and can allocate resources for someone in FA then. Think 2018 is the year? Then keeping him might be a better option.
Kemp and the Quest for 1 bWAR
- Thread starter thewupk
- Start date
I guess it depends on when you think our realistic timetable is to compete. As it stands we have Markakis through 2018 and Kemp through 2019. Together they cost the Braves around 29 million in salary. Who is going to be a star free agent after the 2018 season? If we could move Kemp then we would have 29 million off the books to go after someone to push us over the edge with our young team. If 2020 is your time frame then I would try and move Kemp and possibly eat a lot of the contract to get someone who can help us in the future. Then we are done paying for Kemp after 2019 and can allocate resources for someone in FA then. Think 2018 is the year? Then keeping him might be a better option.
Southcack77
Well-known member
To me it isn't about saving the Oliveira deal. That's done.
It's clearing 18 million dollar contract that his last two teams have paid to go away.
If the FO thinks he's going to put up this offense for two more seasons then all power to them, but I think clearing the cap space to spend on younger pieces might be a better thing.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I think 2019 is possible. Heck, I suppose under fairly unlikely circumstances 2018 could be a playoff year. I think spending 29 million on 3B and SP could maybe go a long way.
We may not have a need for a SP next year assuming the option on Dickey is exercised. Then Colons salary is allocated to the reat of the team and SRod is back. I really don't see why having Kemp money on the books a big deal.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
You need one more experienced very good/ace pitcher... sorry that's reality. You can't expect ours rookies to be excellent out of the gate. That rarely happens with pitchers.
Dickey/Teheran are vets. You need good pitchers first and foremost.
Neither of those two are good either.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Yeah show me who's good that we have? We only have average to slightly above average pitchers at the moment with no guarantee of ANY prospect panning out. We need an established young consistent 1 or 2 and I don't see how it could be argued otherwise.
How do you propose we get that guy? Chris Sale doesn't get traded every year.
I refuse to believe that Teheran has turned to poo overnight. I suspect that is he dealing with some injury issues and at some point this season he will get back to what hes done for his career.
I just don't see that big pitcher that will be acquire via trade. There are good ones like Quintana/Archer but nothing to the caliber of Sale. We also need to find out which of these young guys can pitch.
Sometimes, the best thing for a young pitcher is to pitch with a lead. If that is the case then we need to keep Kemp. Maybe it will fade but it seems clear to me that he has a new found motivation to play this game and it is showing in his production. Why trade one fo the best right hand power hitters in baseball? All for a prospect on a team that has by far the best farm system in baseball? For salary relief with no glaring needs (aside from 3B) and a multitude of options from the farm to give us cheap labor? It doesn't make sense to me. The team wants to win. The fans want to win. The time is now - well 2018.
Why trade him? Here are a few reasons:
1. He has an expensive contract and probably can't keep this level up through 2019.
2. Realistically, most of our young talent begins to pay off around the same time as his contract is up.
3. Trading an older hitter for a younger hitter (closer to MLB ready), would line up with our rebuild time frame, and would/could pay off for years longer than 2.5 years of Kemp.
4. $20 million goes a long way in adding talent.
Obviously if we have a chance for a wild card...sure...keep him. Otherwise, cash that Kemp chip in while you can.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Who knows who will be available for trade the next two years?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think "the value proposition" has to be put very high in evaluating any trade offer for Kemp and another other player for that matter. What is the expected productivity of said player and what is the expected surplus value given his contract. Since I want to "win" any trade, especially one that involves transferring current production to the future, I want a bit more in the return that the expected surplus value.
The question of Kemp's expected productivity is an interesting one. His play since coming to Atlanta suggests he has more left in the tank than appeared to be the case in San Diego. Even his defense has shown signs of improvement, though he remains a below average defender.
He is on pace for a 3-4 WAR season. Some of that has to be discounted. The .409 BABIP certainly suggests the need for some discounting. Some weight also has to be given to his 2015 & 2016 performances.
My take is that he is likely to produce about 2 wins per season for the balance of his contract. If some team came along with an offer that effectively values him at 3 wins or more, I would accept the offer.
You were pretty high on Rodriguez before the season weren't you?
Regardless, we can sign someone for much younger or cheaper that can give us similar overall value or trade for someone.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
He's also high on Dustin Peterson. And also Travis Demeritte, who can probably make the move to left fairly easily. And Alex Jackson, who could be moved back to left.
Who is the option that can give us what Kemp has since he has been acquired? Why are people acting like what he is doing is replaceable with just money?
Dustin Peterson is not a power bat like Kemp. Not sure what I've said about Demeritte aside from the fact that hte deal to acquire him was highway robbery.
I am high on Jackson but he is at least 2 years from being in the discussion for the MLB team.
Well Kemp isn't likely to continue what he's done so far either...