7/6 GDT: Atlanta Braves (40-43) vs. Washington Nationals (50-34); Freddie at 1B
- Thread starter WaitingFor2017
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Folty is already controlled through his 20s. There is no reason to extend him and guarantee him money into his 30s.
Besides, you consider Wisler and Folty equivalent pitchers, so shouldn't the Braves extend both?
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Folty is already controlled through his 20s. There is no reason to extend him and guarantee him money into his 30s.
Besides, you consider Wisler and Folty equivalent pitchers, so shouldn't the Braves extend both?
There is a difference in just controlling a guy and letting arbitration adjust his salary. Look at Jake.. he is making 15+ this year. Why would you not maybe offer a team friendly deal..(not this year) that say buys out his 31 season...(maybe team option for 30 and 31) .. something similar to an Archer deal. That would guarantee money but be cheaper than if he is good and goes through arb..
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
What would you offer him.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I don't know.. would need to look at the rest of this year's performance and then see what market bares.. I would think maybe buying out his arb years (29 season) at an average of ~7 -10 (4 for ~40) with team options similar to Archer which I think is 11 to 13 million for two years..or something like that.. That way team can have control through his 31 season or 6 more years total. (if I am remembering his age right)
that would set him up for life because of guarantee... Team is buying a pitcher that only has to be worth 1 WAR to be worth contract and could save big if he becomes TOR because arb raises would most definitely pass that total.. not to mention the two team controlled years that would keep him around or be great trade chip.
Would Folty take that.. IDK..
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
4 for around 40 for his arb years seems a bit high to me...but i'd be interested at 4 for 25 plus a couple options along the lines you outline
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I am not great with market value. I would have to be a better student of the game in relations to salaries. I was just thinking about WAR/$ and he seems like a guy worth 1 WAR price tag. But anything below that is gravy. I think the money ball in that deal is the two team options. you basically have two lottery tickets that are really valuable if he hits or you don't have to buy if he busts.
Pitchers that are arb controlled through their 20s should not be guaranteed money into their 30s.
Folty will likely get hurt during his arb years and can then be cut loose. If the Braves sign him to a guaranteed contract, they can no longer cut him loose.
Players very rarely sign away their arb years for a discount as those years are already discounted by the arb process. There is virtually no money to be saved by guaranteeing arb years...the money saved comes from buying FA years cheaply...at the cost of guaranteeing arb years.
Extending Julio was the correct move because it bought the Braves discounted FA years in his 20s.
Letting Folty go through arb is the correct move because they already control his 20s.
If Allard and Soroka are effective in MLB at the age of 21-22, the correct move will be to give them a Julio-like extension.
If Wright doesn't hit the MLB level until he is 24, the correct move will be to allow him to go through arb normally.
Folty will likely get hurt during his arb years and can then be cut loose. If the Braves sign him to a guaranteed contract, they can no longer cut him loose.
Players very rarely sign away their arb years for a discount as those years are already discounted by the arb process. There is virtually no money to be saved by guaranteeing arb years...the money saved comes from buying FA years cheaply...at the cost of guaranteeing arb years.
Extending Julio was the correct move because it bought the Braves discounted FA years in his 20s.
Letting Folty go through arb is the correct move because they already control his 20s.
If Allard and Soroka are effective in MLB at the age of 21-22, the correct move will be to give them a Julio-like extension.
If Wright doesn't hit the MLB level until he is 24, the correct move will be to allow him to go through arb normally.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
players don't get anything close to market value during their pre-arb years...plus there should be an additional discount on top of that if we give him the security of a 4 year deal...thats how it works
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
correct, but him agreeing to 2 team options is also alleviating some team risk. team options in my eyes are like the team saying, So since we are guaranteeing your money, you have to give us two team friendly options at the end to help hedge our risk.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I think when you are talking about regular pitchers, that is fine. But potential TOR guys, you can really benefit by getting those team options at the end. Imagine trading a true Ace after his 29 season with 2 team option years left. That return would be Yuge... I think that alone is worth the risk of guaranteeing him arb money years.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
But the options you are quoting are pretty close to what his expected market value would be for his age 30 and 31 seasons. They are not really team friendly, except to the extent the team can limit its downside by declining to exercise them.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
There is downside. Imagine similar deals at similar points in their careers to Jurrjens, Minor, Beachy, Hanson and Medlen. I am not completely opposed to doing an extension, but the terms have to be very team friendly. Very.
You may be right, a cheap Ace IS huge.
However, I am of the opinion that nobody can accurately project who is going to be that Ace. If it is impossible to consistently predict who will be that Ace, it is wise to look at overall trends pitchers follow, and construct a process that maximizes pitcher value over the long term.
We know pitchers get hurt a lot. We know their velo declines almost immediately after being promoted. We know their production decline trails velo decline by about 2-3 years due to improved command and sequencing. So there is no sense trying to be smarter than the overall trends.
My process for pitchers identified as legit SPs would be:
1. secure control through their age 29 seasons, perhaps extending to the age 30 season in rare cases.
2. trade all SPs when they have 1-2 years of control remaining, at the deadline if not in contention that year.
Basically the blue print the Rays have laid out. The difference with the Braves is they have enough money to fill 1-2 rotation spots with 2 win FA SPs rather than scrap heap guys the Rays rely on.
ding ding ding
If he hits his upside, those options are much lower than market value would be, they would be extremely team friendly - unless I misread the numbers.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Sure but the chances of him turning into a 6 win pitcher are somewhere under 1%. imo
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Honestly, which one of those were really TOR guys though. Meds.. no.. JJ for one season, but never had the true stuff.. Minor neither. I think Beachy or Hanson maybe.