Extending Swanson and Albies

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
Swanson and Albies are showing signs of being exactly what all of Braves nation hoped for...good/great players under team control for a long time that should anchor the middle infield for the foreseeable future.

It is my opinion that the Braves should look to extend both players this offseason. They decided not to manipulate the service times of their 2 most valuable young assets, so they need to recoup some of the value they lost by promoting them early. So let's examine what such extensions are likely to cost.

First, Swanson...

Swanson is currently controlled as follows:

2018 (24) Pre-Arb
2019 (25) Pre-Arb
2020 (26) Arb 1
2021 (27) Arb 2
2022 (28) Arb 3

To estimate Swanson's Arb salaries, we can look to Brandon Crawford. He was paid $3M, $6M and $8M from 2015-2017. Adding a bit of inflation, we can probably assume Swanson's likely cost for his 3 Arb seasons will be ~$20M.

Players like Swanson (already rich due to signing bonus) want to hit FA at age 30, so he is only likely to sign away 1 FA year in exchange for the Braves guaranteeing his Arb seasons. Again, Crawford's $15M plus some inflation sounds about right.

This brings the Swanson extension to 6 years for ~$40M, giving the Braves control of his entire 20s.

Next, Albies, is currently controlled as follows:

2018 (21) Pre-Arb
2019 (22) Pre-Arb
2020 (23) Pre-Arb
2021 (24) Arb 1
2022 (25) Arb 2
2023 (26) Arb 3

I would expect Albies to cost about the same through his Arb years as Swanson. He is a better player, but he will be signing 1 year earlier. Those 2 factors should keep him in the $20M range for his 3 Arb years.

The FA years is where the Braves can get creative. We saw the Rays get a very good deal with Longoria with a very early extension. I would look for something similar with Albies. Offer him 6/25 (which includes a $2M signing bonus) with 1-3 option years valued at $15M each tacked on at the end, each with a $5M buyout. That guarantees Albies $30M, gets him some cash up front he never got when he signed, and allows him to still become a FA before his age 30 season (how young he is depending on how many options the Braves get him to agree to).

In both cases the Braves are giving the player a guaranteed small fortune in exchange for some cheaper control over their FA years. The Braves will take on this added risk to control their middle infield through the bulk of their peak years.
 
Looks good to me. This better be the braves plan and I hope each player plays along.
 
Uh, lets let'em get a full season in the majors first.... In Swanson's case, at least a full DECENT year in the majors.

The Bravos know when to sign'em long term. They did it with Julio, McCann, Freeman, and Simmons.
 
Which ever way the wind blows. Weren't you clowns all ready to toss Swanson on the trash heap just a couple weeks ago?
 
At the time he signed his deal (November 2015), Crawford had put up a total of 12 WAR over slightly more than 4 seasons (including a 4 win season in 2015). So far for Swanson it is just 1 WAR over 1 season. Doesn't seem like a good comp to me for deciding what kind of extension we should offer Swanson.
 
Tino25Dynasty said:
Uh, lets let'em get a full season in the majors first.... In Swanson's case, at least a full DECENT year in the majors.

The Bravos know when to sign'em long term. They did it with Julio, McCann, Freeman, and Simmons.
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Until he puts up a season at 2 WAR, I would not offer him a contract that valued him as such. But I am willing to do a deal that values him at 1 WAR per season. I have some doubts he and his agent would have interest in that.
 
Tino25Dynasty said:
Uh, lets let'em get a full season in the majors first.... In Swanson's case, at least a full DECENT year in the majors.

The Bravos know when to sign'em long term. They did it with Julio, McCann, Freeman, and Simmons.
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That was a different GM. We don't know if the current FO knows how to do this or not.
 
The best part of young players is you pay them significantly less than they are worth and bear relatively little risk of their flaming out.

Extending a young player decreases the value to the team and increases risk at the gain of longer control.

The only way that makes a ton of sense is that you are very sure that the value at the end of the deal is worth the control and you are either getting a fair price or a discount for it.

It is a nice budgeting tool and it is a way to gamble on value plays.

But it does have to be balanced against things like: is this player really someone that is particularly special and how likely are we to produce and equally good and cheaper player to replace him internally? And of course, are we sure this player is good.

I'm in no hurry to get around to those extensions for Swanson and Albies.
 
chipchildress said:
it'll be hilarious when in the long run the early promotion of swanson actually ends up meaning the braves saving money.
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There is really no way that is going to happen unless Swanson's camp signs some ridiculous hometown discount. If Swanson is at a minimum 2-3 WAR player he is going to cost the Braves an extra 10 million in salary for his age 29 season (if he is extended). No other way around that really.
 
thewupk said:
There is really no way that is going to happen unless Swanson's camp signs some ridiculous hometown discount. If Swanson is at a minimum 2-3 WAR player he is going to cost the Braves an extra 10 million in salary for his age 29 season (if he is extended). No other way around that really.
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there's no way to know what kind of extension he might sign.

frankly, if there was EVER a player that would sign a nice discount, it stands to reason it would be swanson. it's also just as possible that his camp values how the braves have handled him and would most certainly be willing to sacrifice some dollars in exchange for all that comes with being the face of the braves, playing in your home suburb. who knows...
 
Knucksie said:
Which ever way the wind blows. Weren't you clowns all ready to toss Swanson on the trash heap just a couple weeks ago?
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This clown never jumped off the Swanson bandwagon. Heck, I've been driving it all along and never wavered.
 
chipchildress said:
there's no way to know what kind of extension he might sign.
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I expect him to sign an extension that compares to what other people sign relative to his ability. An extension will have his 3 arby years based on the 20/40/60 scale that players get by going to arbitration and then any FA years will be based on the market value. Sometimes the first FA year is somewhat discounted as well if it's a long extension and sometimes it's not. So by using that basic logic we can see that any kind of extension right now has Swanson's age 29 season being based on his market value instead of his arb 3 year. That's a significant difference in terms of salary. Especially for a mid market team like Atlanta. Swanson also isn't likely to sign a super long extension either. I think he would only do 1 or 2 years max. He's going to want to hit FA somewhat still in his prime for obvious reasons. With him going to college he was always a prime candidate to let walk after his first 6 years anyways and the Braves decided to short change themselves one season for whatever reason.
 
I think you extend them now. IF you can get them for that cheap then you do it.

FA price is what, 7 million per WAR? That's only going to go up. I think if you are paying these guys 10 million or less then you are not over paying them.

I think you are right about what is reasonable.

I'd shoot the moon and offer 10 year deals to both. Yes that is a long time. But I'd lock them up now. I don't think there is anyone worth signing in the FA classes now. We have cheap labor coming into the team from the farm.

Swanson might go for a cheap deal. He got number 1 pick money but he's a hometown guy. IF he gets 10 years and 100 million he's got 100 million. If he's good he has the looks and the story to make hundreds of millions off the field.
Albies signed for 300K. He'd have to turn down the big number from me before I gave him that little deal.

It would never happen in real life but I'd do 10/100 for both and I'd pay them 10 starting next year. I think that is going to be a deal with baseball inflation. Maybe you would take money out of the first two years while we pay for kemp and put them on the back end.

10/100 with two team options at 25 million each. If they perform they get 12/150 and they still are not that old. I'd make them turn that down.

But that's now how teams operate. They do the escalating deals and I don't get it. I think Swanson will be worth 1.5 WAR or more next year and be solid at 10 million. If he stinks I'd rather get some of that money off the books early when we suck.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I think you extend them now. IF you can get them for that cheap then you do it.

FA price is what, 7 million per WAR? That's only going to go up. I think if you are paying these guys 10 million or less then you are not over paying them.

I think you are right about what is reasonable.

I'd shoot the moon and offer 10 year deals to both. Yes that is a long time. But I'd lock them up now. I don't think there is anyone worth signing in the FA classes now. We have cheap labor coming into the team from the farm.

Swanson might go for a cheap deal. He got number 1 pick money but he's a hometown guy. IF he gets 10 years and 100 million he's got 100 million. If he's good he has the looks and the story to make hundreds of millions off the field.
Albies signed for 300K. He'd have to turn down the big number from me before I gave him that little deal.

It would never happen in real life but I'd do 10/100 for both and I'd pay them 10 starting next year. I think that is going to be a deal with baseball inflation. Maybe you would take money out of the first two years while we pay for kemp and put them on the back end.

10/100 with two team options at 25 million each. If they perform they get 12/150 and they still are not that old. I'd make them turn that down.

But that's now how teams operate. They do the escalating deals and I don't get it. I think Swanson will be worth 1.5 WAR or more next year and be solid at 10 million. If he stinks I'd rather get some of that money off the books early when we suck.
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I would not give a ten year guaranteed deal to a guy that has a 71 wRC+. Maybe you should, but I wouldn't.
 
The Braves aren't going to extend Swanson if he starts producing like Brandon Crawford because he will no longer have the incentive to extend.

Folks can argue whether or not extensions are wise now for these players, but what I outlined is what it will cost.
 
Southcack77 said:
I would not give a ten year guaranteed deal to a guy that has a 71 wRC+. Maybe you should, but I wouldn't.
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Swanson has produced 1.1 fWAR in a years worth of games in his career. 10 million a year for 1 WAR is going to be a bargain on the back half of that 10 year contract
 
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