What should our lineup look like next year?

chop2chip said:
Nice deflection, but I didn't say it was likely (nor that I would want the Braves to trade for Stanton).

Please, when you get the chance answer my question.
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"Doubling his salary" is obviously a figure of speech. What I'm "implying" is that not only are the Braves not likely ever going to be in a position to take on that contract AND that of the teams that possibly could that Atlanta is likely waaaay down his list of preferred destinations. I'm aware there's no sarcasm sign, but if that wasn't obvious you guys are the ones with comprehension problems. That's more or less what those not living in a fantasy world are aware of.
 
clvclv said:
"Doubling his salary" is obviously a figure of speech. What I'm "implying" is that not only are the Braves not likely ever going to be in a position to take on that contract AND that of the teams that possibly could that Atlanta is likely waaaay down his list of preferred destinations. I'm aware there's no sarcasm sign, but if that wasn't obvious you guys are the ones with comprehension problems. That's more or less what those not living in a fantasy world are aware of.
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The sarcasm issue was dropped. I get it.. figure of speech.

But you are implying that if offered a trade to the Braves he would reject it. This is a hypothetical and I don't see your reason why he would prefer to stay in Miami.
 
I don't think Stanton would decline the deal. Obviously may have to throw a few perks in. But with suntrust being a hitters park, he could come here and hit behind Inciarte/Albies, Acuna, freeman, put up stupid numbers and hit the market again after the 2020 season. All while the braves are getting close to competitive
 
chop2chip said:
The sarcasm issue was dropped. I get it.. figure of speech.

But you are implying that if offered a trade to the Braves he would reject it. This is a hypothetical and I don't see your reason why he would prefer to stay in Miami.
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OK - let's follow through with your hypothetical. If you were offered the "chance" to move to Atlanta OR keep your mansion and lifestyle in Miami (where there is NO state income tax BTW), would you choose Atlanta?

Must be one *ell of a Braves fan - likely bigger than any poster here.
 
clvclv said:
Because there's no way on God's green earth that Stanton approves a trade to Atlanta unless you double (or maybe even triple) his salary. There's more chance Aaron Judge is in the Braves' OF in 2018.
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Ummm why wouldnt he ? Just curious
 
It is worth looking at what the market for Stanton might look like. I've seen assertions that the fact no one claimed him off waivers means he can be had for free. I doubt that is the case. Teams have more of an ability to adjust their roster/payrolls in the off-season and the market for his services will be very different. I'm willing to bet he either does not get traded this off-season or if he does the terms of the deal will make clear the contract was not all albatross (the Marlins receive positive value in return).

Any analysis has to start with his expected production going forward. Stanton is on his way to his 2nd 6+ WAR season in the past four years. This is his age 27 season. Lets first look at expected production over the next three years (which cover the years ahead of his opt out clause which kicks in after 2020). For his age 28-30 seasons, I think 5 wins per year is a reasonable projection. Total of 15 wins for those three years. There is both some upside and downside risk relative to that. His contract calls for him to be paid 77 million over the next three years. I expect the market rate for free agents this off-season to be about 9 million per win. The 77 million Stanton is going to be paid will get you about 8.5 wins this off-season. So Stanton's expected surplus value is about 6.5 wins (15 minus 8.5) for the next three years.

The tricky part is assessing what comes after the opt out clause kicks in. I think the odds are high Stanton will opt out. The post-opt out part of his contract guarantees him 186M for his age 31-37 seasons. Over those 7 seasons, a reasonable (conservative in my mind) estimate is he will average 3 wins per season (for a total of 21). A conservative estimate of salary inflation would put the going free agent market price for a win at about 10M in the 2020 off-season. In other words, teams would play a player like Stanton (age 30 and projected to produce 3 wins per year) about 210M on a seven year deal.

There is a chance something bad (productivity curtailing injury) will happen and he will not opt out. This is the most difficult part to evaluate and I'll do it the quick and dirty way. I would put the odds of a no opt out scenario about about 10%. Let's say that a potential trade partner with the Marlins estimates that they would lose about 10 wins of surplus value in this "bad" scenario. Assuming about a 10% chance of this bad scenario would result in a downward adjustment of bid by 1 win (10% chance of a negative 10 wins scenario). But keep in mind this must be weighed against other outcomes in which his expect value the next three years is 6-7 wins. This is why I'm convinced Stanton's contract is far from being under water. If a trade happens this off-season, the other team will be sending asset(s) of significant value in exchange for him.
 
nsacpi said:
can you do the intro
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Since we covered Staton in our first edition. I will now go over how a swap of Dee Gordon for Ozzie Albies is in fact a win win. I know many of you think I am crazy now by saying this but I will go into detailed,advance analytics to show you I am not crazy. By the end of this edition, everyone will have pitch forks in hand marching on Cobb to demand this trade.

There you go. Run with it
 
This thread is asking the wrong question. The lineup is pretty close to sound, especially when you add Acuña.

The question should really be, "what does our pitching look like?" But that will probably take another year to clean up.

Teheran will rebound, I believe. Newk could continue to develop, interesting comments from him this morning on the development of his change this year. Dickey's option will be picked up and he'll be 11-11 with a 4.00 ERA for one more season. Foltynewicz is a rockhead. Gohara is very interesting, especially if he continues to lose weight (although I'm worried about the stiff front leg he throws from). We've got about four keepers in the pen.

So it's all about the pitching, the continued development of this wave and the one after that. Sure would be nice if Wright, Gohara or/and Soroka developed TOR tendencies.
 
nsacpi said:
It is worth looking at what the market for Stanton might look like. I've seen assertions that the fact no one claimed him off waivers means he can be had for free. I doubt that is the case. Teams have more of an ability to adjust their roster/payrolls in the off-season and the market for his services will be very different. I'm willing to bet he either does not get traded this off-season or if he does the terms of the deal will make clear the contract was not all albatross (the Marlins receive positive value in return).

Any analysis has to start with his expected production going forward. Stanton is on his way to his 2nd 6+ WAR season in the past four years. This is his age 27 season. Lets first look at expected production over the next three years (which cover the years ahead of his opt out clause which kicks in after 2020). For his age 28-30 seasons, I think 5 wins per year is a reasonable projection. Total of 15 wins for those three years. There is both some upside and downside risk relative to that. His contract calls for him to be paid 77 million over the next three years. I expect the market rate for free agents this off-season to be about 9 million per win. The 77 million Stanton is going to be paid will get you about 8.5 wins this off-season. So Stanton's expected surplus value is about 6.5 wins (15 minus 8.5) for the next three years.

The tricky part is assessing what comes after the opt out clause kicks in. I think the odds are high Stanton will opt out. The post-opt out part of his contract guarantees him 186M for his age 31-37 seasons. Over those 7 seasons, a reasonable (conservative in my mind) estimate is he will average 3 wins per season (for a total of 21). A conservative estimate of salary inflation would put the going free agent market price for a win at about 10M in the 2020 off-season. In other words, teams would play a player like Stanton (age 30 and projected to produce 3 wins per year) about 210M on a seven year deal.

There is a chance something bad (productivity curtailing injury) will happen and he will not opt out. This is the most difficult part to evaluate and I'll do it the quick and dirty way. I would put the odds of a no opt out scenario about about 10%. Let's say that a potential trade partner with the Marlins estimates that they would lose about 10 wins of surplus value in this "bad" scenario. Assuming about a 10% chance of this bad scenario would result in a downward adjustment of bid by 1 win (10% chance of a negative 10 wins scenario). But keep in mind this must be weighed against other outcomes in which his expect value the next three years is 6-7 wins. This is why I'm convinced Stanton's contract is far from being under water. If a trade happens this off-season, the other team will be sending asset(s) of significant value in exchange for him.
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Ordinarily, I would agree with your reasoning.

However, the Marlins are a wounded animal. They have publicly said that they will get the payroll down to about $75M. They have several contracts that are just unmovable (Chen, Volquez). Then they have several contracts that are unlikely to be moved (Prado, Tazawa, Ziegler). Cots showed them at $115M for 2017 with Chen increasing by $1M, Stanton by $10.5M, Prado $2M, Volquez $4M, Gordon $3M, Ziegler $2M, Tazawa $2M, Ozuna was $3.5M in 2017 and will be arbitration through Boras so estimate he increases by $5M, Yelich $4.5M. So, an increase of $32.5M just with players under contract coming into play the the changing of the calendar from 2017 to 2018.

The only contracts of significance that they can lose just by not renewing or allowing players to leave via FA are: Ellis $2.5M, Ichiro $2M (has $2M option for 2018), McGowan $1.75M, Dietrich $1.75M. So, they could shed about $6M in contracts ($8M - $2M in league minimum replacements).

So, if Florida does nothing then their payroll goes to about $142M just with the changing of the calendar.

To get to $75M they will have to do a serious tear down and find a way to move some assets that normally can't be moved.

That's why I think it is irrelevant as to what Stanton's future value is. The Marlins, if they follow through and try to go to $75M, will have no choice but to attach value to contracts with negative value to get rid of them. Any team willing to help them with that will be at an advantage of getting some good players without having to give up talent value going the other way.

So, if you want Stanton? Then you have to take Ziegler.

You want Ozuna then you have to take Tazawa.

You want Yelich you have to take Prado and Volquez. etc. etc.
 
nsacpi said:
It is worth looking at what the market for Stanton might look like. I've seen assertions that the fact no one claimed him off waivers means he can be had for free. I doubt that is the case. Teams have more of an ability to adjust their roster/payrolls in the off-season and the market for his services will be very different. I'm willing to bet he either does not get traded this off-season or if he does the terms of the deal will make clear the contract was not all albatross (the Marlins receive positive value in return).

Any analysis has to start with his expected production going forward. Stanton is on his way to his 2nd 6+ WAR season in the past four years. This is his age 27 season. Lets first look at expected production over the next three years (which cover the years ahead of his opt out clause which kicks in after 2020). For his age 28-30 seasons, I think 5 wins per year is a reasonable projection. Total of 15 wins for those three years. There is both some upside and downside risk relative to that. His contract calls for him to be paid 77 million over the next three years. I expect the market rate for free agents this off-season to be about 9 million per win. The 77 million Stanton is going to be paid will get you about 8.5 wins this off-season. So Stanton's expected surplus value is about 6.5 wins (15 minus 8.5) for the next three years.

The tricky part is assessing what comes after the opt out clause kicks in. I think the odds are high Stanton will opt out. The post-opt out part of his contract guarantees him 186M for his age 31-37 seasons. Over those 7 seasons, a reasonable (conservative in my mind) estimate is he will average 3 wins per season (for a total of 21). A conservative estimate of salary inflation would put the going free agent market price for a win at about 10M in the 2020 off-season. In other words, teams would play a player like Stanton (age 30 and projected to produce 3 wins per year) about 210M on a seven year deal.

There is a chance something bad (productivity curtailing injury) will happen and he will not opt out. This is the most difficult part to evaluate and I'll do it the quick and dirty way. I would put the odds of a no opt out scenario about about 10%. Let's say that a potential trade partner with the Marlins estimates that they would lose about 10 wins of surplus value in this "bad" scenario. Assuming about a 10% chance of this bad scenario would result in a downward adjustment of bid by 1 win (10% chance of a negative 10 wins scenario). But keep in mind this must be weighed against other outcomes in which his expect value the next three years is 6-7 wins. This is why I'm convinced Stanton's contract is far from being under water. If a trade happens this off-season, the other team will be sending asset(s) of significant value in exchange for him.
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I'm good with trading from Stanton if they take back neck and Kemp. That would compensate for two bad years at the end of Stantons contract. Because of his contract i think he will be traded for a big group of lottery ticket type guys. I wouldn't give up one of the braves top 8 prospects for him if I have to take all the money risk.

I think the odds of his opt out are at best 50/50. To make it worth opting out he would have to get a 190 million dollar contract. A 190 million contact eliminates over have the teams at the start. Then you have to eliminate teams that wouldn't need him. So his pool of possible opportunities to opt out gets really small.
 
I think Newk and Gohara will both be solid. Newk is already making adjustments since being called up. Allard and Soroka will probably start in with Wright in AA. Our rotation should be very good by the end of next year.
 
Hudson2 said:
I think Newk and Gohara will both be solid. Newk is already making adjustments since being called up. Allard and Soroka will probably start in with Wright in AA. Our rotation should be very good by the end of next year.
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The rebuild really hinges on whether the FO can follow through on the strategy of rebuilding around internal pitching. If they have to go outside to get the pieces to build the staff then the rebuild failed. That's not to say that the Braves will still have horrible records. But if you draft 10 pitchers with premium picks and trade for 5 other prospects as part of key returns for ML players and you still have to go sign and trade for a significant number of external pitchers to be able to field a ML staff, then you failed.
 
JxnMissFan said:
I'm good with trading from Stanton if they take back neck and Kemp. That would compensate for two bad years at the end of Stantons contract. Because of his contract i think he will be traded for a big group of lottery ticket type guys. I wouldn't give up one of the braves top 8 prospects for him if I have to take all the money risk.

I think the odds of his opt out are at best 50/50. To make it worth opting out he would have to get a 190 million dollar contract. A 190 million contact eliminates over have the teams at the start. Then you have to eliminate teams that wouldn't need him. So his pool of possible opportunities to opt out gets really small.
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Stanton by my reckoning has an expected surplus value of about 6 wins on his contract. Kemp and Markakis have a combined expected surplus value of negative 4 wins. So a Stanton for Kemp and Markakis has to be accompanied by approximately 10 wins worth of assets going from us to them. ymmv
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Ordinarily, I would agree with your reasoning.

However, the Marlins are a wounded animal. They have publicly said that they will get the payroll down to about $75M. They have several contracts that are just unmovable (Chen, Volquez). Then they have several contracts that are unlikely to be moved (Prado, Tazawa, Ziegler). Cots showed them at $115M for 2017 with Chen increasing by $1M, Stanton by $10.5M, Prado $2M, Volquez $4M, Gordon $3M, Ziegler $2M, Tazawa $2M, Ozuna was $3.5M in 2017 and will be arbitration through Boras so estimate he increases by $5M, Yelich $4.5M. So, an increase of $32.5M just with players under contract coming into play the the changing of the calendar from 2017 to 2018.

The only contracts of significance that they can lose just by not renewing or allowing players to leave via FA are: Ellis $2.5M, Ichiro $2M (has $2M option for 2018), McGowan $1.75M, Dietrich $1.75M. So, they could shed about $6M in contracts ($8M - $2M in league minimum replacements).

So, if Florida does nothing then their payroll goes to about $142M just with the changing of the calendar.

To get to $75M they will have to do a serious tear down and find a way to move some assets that normally can't be moved.

That's why I think it is irrelevant as to what Stanton's future value is. The Marlins, if they follow through and try to go to $75M, will have no choice but to attach value to contracts with negative value to get rid of them. Any team willing to help them with that will be at an advantage of getting some good players without having to give up talent value going the other way.

So, if you want Stanton? Then you have to take Ziegler.

You want Ozuna then you have to take Tazawa.

You want Yelich you have to take Prado and Volquez. etc. etc.
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bet? I win if one of the following happens:

1) Stanton is not traded this off-season

2) he is traded but nets a positive return...ie what the Marlins get back is worth more than what they send over in addition to Stanton including cash (I am willing to allow you to be sole arbiter of whether this condition is met).
 
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