bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I felt his ceiling was a #3.. But that would be great. I don't know if it is a lack of focus, coaching, him being cocky, ability or a combo of it all.. but he makes so many bad pitches that just kill him.
Grading the Braves' Four-seam Fastballs (FA)
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
I felt his ceiling was a #3.. But that would be great. I don't know if it is a lack of focus, coaching, him being cocky, ability or a combo of it all.. but he makes so many bad pitches that just kill him.
I have Keuchel with: 25 FA (rarely used), 40 SI, 55 CU (rarely used), 65 SL, 55 CH and a FC (cutter) I would grade about a 45.
He's a junk-baller with plus control that produced a .279 xwOBA in 2017. I would not sign him long term if I were the Astros. Or maybe as a junk-baller he will age well. Hard pitcher to figure out...a lot like Rich Hill.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
It's too early to tell, but Fried may be one of those guys who has to pitch backwards and those types can be dicey. Like you point out, for every Hill or Kuechel, there's a massive pile of discarded pitchers.
Main differences are Keuchel throws 6 pitches (4-5 of which are usable) and has plus control, while Fried throws 3 pitches (1 of them being barely usable) and has poor control.
I think the key for Fried will be to add the SI as a usable pitch and tighten up the control. He is nearing the age where those kinds of changes are becoming hard to make.
Rich Hill is another very interesting example. He has horrible velocity on every single one of his pitches, but the movement he gets on all of them makes them useful (a lot like Glavine). The Dodgers were able to identify his ability to spin a baseball years ago, which is why they acquired him.
Pitch: velo, velo grade, X, X grade, Z, Z grade, Overall Grade
FA: 89.3 34.59 7.1 61.02 10.4 61.45 48.89
SI: 87.3 27.64 11.1 72.63 4.6 54.61 45.63
CU: 74.1 36.74 9 76.61 -7 62.93 62.99
SL: 77.2 21.32 5.7 66.82 -2.4 68.89 63.32
CH: 5.2 37.60 7.8 50.76 7.4 39.87 39.13
CU: 85.4 38.32 1.2 48.77 6.5 39.41 42
Look at the horizontal movement on that SI (11.1"). It moves so much it acts like a screwball moving away from RHers and likely plays much better than it's 45 grade indicates.
Look at the nearly elite horizontal movement on that CU (9"). Huge sweeping action away from LHers makes it play up to closer to a 65 grade pitch.
HUGE movement on the SL. Plus movement on the FA that make it average overall.
Pitch: velo, velo grade, X, X grade, Z, Z grade, Overall Grade
FA: 89.3 34.59 7.1 61.02 10.4 61.45 48.89
SI: 87.3 27.64 11.1 72.63 4.6 54.61 45.63
CU: 74.1 36.74 9 76.61 -7 62.93 62.99
SL: 77.2 21.32 5.7 66.82 -2.4 68.89 63.32
CH: 5.2 37.60 7.8 50.76 7.4 39.87 39.13
CU: 85.4 38.32 1.2 48.77 6.5 39.41 42
Look at the horizontal movement on that SI (11.1"). It moves so much it acts like a screwball moving away from RHers and likely plays much better than it's 45 grade indicates.
Look at the nearly elite horizontal movement on that CU (9"). Huge sweeping action away from LHers makes it play up to closer to a 65 grade pitch.
HUGE movement on the SL. Plus movement on the FA that make it average overall.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Awesome post and analysis Enscheff... gives me some more optimism on Newcomb
The question with Newk has always been his control and how likely he is to significantly improve upon it at the age of 24 (and now 25 in 2018).
If we don't see the BB/9 rate improve to ~4 in 2018 I don't think anyone can reasonably expect him to ever improve his control before his stuff starts to decline so much that it doesn't matter anymore.
His production as a function of BB/9 for the next few years will likely follow something along the lines of:
5 BB/9 = #4 SP
4 BB/9 = #3 SP
3.5 BB/9 = #2 SP
3 BB/9 = #1
2.5 BB/9 = CYA candidate
Looking at other 24 year olds with this poor of command, the odds of him getting to 3.5 BB/9 is fairly remote.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I know at his age, its a long shot, but the data still gives me some optimism.
Here are Winkler's pitches in the order he throws him:
Pitch velo, velo grade, X, X grade, Z, Z grade
FC: 90.9 59.93 0.1 39.32 5.5 47.70
His cutter has plus velocity and below average movement. This is probably a grade 55 pitch.
FA: 94.1 53.72 -4.4 45.69 8.8 47.64
His four-seamer has above average velocity and below average movement. Probably a grade 50 pitch.
SL: 83.1 43.55 3.3 54.35 0.1 57.02
The slider has above average movement. This is a grade 55 pitch.
SI: 93.9 57.73 -8.6 51.50 6.4 45.77
The sinker has good velocity and slightly below average movement, a grade 55 pitch.
CH: 4.8 35.71 -8.4 55.03 1.4 64.24
His change doesn't have good velocity delta, but it has plus movement that probably make it is grade 50 pitch overall.
So it looks like Winkler has 5 average or better pitches. He was a SP with the Rockies, so it stands to reason he might be a decent candidate to be stretched out and given another chance to start.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
the question waa about Wisler, but I'm glad to see an analysis of Winkler's potential as a starter. He is obviously a high injury risk which might keep him in the pen. But he does have the repertoire to potentially be a starter. He has some deception which makes his stuff play up.
For the sake of completeness, here are Minter's 2 pitches:
FA: 96.5 69.06 4.9 48.54 9.9 57.14
Excellent four-seamer. This is a grade 70 pitch, ranking only behind Viz and Gohara on the Braves roster.
SL: 90.5 78.59 -1.3 43.93 3.8 39.42
His "slider" seems to be misidentified. It has elite velocity and below average movement. It is probably better described as a:
FC: 90.5 61.78 -1.3 49.70 3.8 61.95
Classified as a cutter, this pitch has plus velocity, average run, and plus sink. This is a grade 60/65 pitch either way you slice it.
Minter pairs a 70 FA that breaks arm side and rises with a 60/65 FC that breaks glove side and sinks. These 2 pitches probably tunnel together very well, and are extremely hard for hitters to tell apart, especially when geared up for 96-97. He probably doesn't have elite command like he showed at the MLB level, but even average command will make Minter a nightmare out of the BP.
He just has to stay healthy...
FA: 96.5 69.06 4.9 48.54 9.9 57.14
Excellent four-seamer. This is a grade 70 pitch, ranking only behind Viz and Gohara on the Braves roster.
SL: 90.5 78.59 -1.3 43.93 3.8 39.42
His "slider" seems to be misidentified. It has elite velocity and below average movement. It is probably better described as a:
FC: 90.5 61.78 -1.3 49.70 3.8 61.95
Classified as a cutter, this pitch has plus velocity, average run, and plus sink. This is a grade 60/65 pitch either way you slice it.
Minter pairs a 70 FA that breaks arm side and rises with a 60/65 FC that breaks glove side and sinks. These 2 pitches probably tunnel together very well, and are extremely hard for hitters to tell apart, especially when geared up for 96-97. He probably doesn't have elite command like he showed at the MLB level, but even average command will make Minter a nightmare out of the BP.
He just has to stay healthy...
Hah, so it is. I did break down Wisler though too.
"I have Wisler as: 50 FA, 40/45 SI, 50 CU, 55/60 SL, 45/50 CH
That is a lot of usable pitches. His BB/9 suggests he is capable of average or slight below average control. That should combine for a back end SP, but his xwOBA values (.364, .334, .371) show he is awful.
Seems to me he's a guy another team might be able to "fix". Of course "fix" means back end SP, but that's a lot better than what he is now."
Southcack77
Well-known member
I think guys have done this over the years. It's not especially likely, but not unheard of for guys with talent. I think of guys like David Wells, Sterling Hitchcock, Jimmy Nelson who did master some 23+ wildness.
I think Newcomb has clean innings that often seem to be followed by innings where he falls apart. I don't know if it is conditioning, mechanics, or immaturity. I guess he will get a lot of chances to let that arm talent play. Braves have little else to do.
I agree that Wisler might be fixable for someone and I think that is a trade that needs to be made for his sake as much as the Braves. I'd be completely unchecked if he checked in down the road as a quality starter in San Diego or St Louis or something.
The issue is we saw a LOT of pitchers take steps backwards this year. In fact, I would say ALL Braves pitchers disappointed this year.
Teheran's control worsened. Colon's control worsened and then improved with the Twins. Newk didn't improve his control one bit at the MLB level in 100 innings. Folty didn't improve at all. Wisler has the raw stuff to be moderately successful, but somehow got even worse. Fried needs to ditch the FA and pick up a SI. Sims has a couple useful pitches that might be leveraged into some SP success.
Those things (control/command, sequencing strategy, pitch refinement) are the things a pitching coach is responsible for. We didn't see any of that from the Braves this year, and I think that has to fall on the shoulders of the coaching staff.
We hear stories about Verlander going to the Astros and finding something on video to fix. Darvish went to LA and they helped him tweak his arm angle to get the bite back on his slider.
Meanwhile the Braves just suck and bring in more dinosaurs like it's the 90s.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
When you think about it, keeping Chuck Hernandez may be one of the single dumbest things that we have done over the course of the past couple of years. No one could look at our pitchers this year and reasonably say that they were being coached well and may necessary strides. If anything every one of them regressed, maybe with a few that just stayed stagnant. I'm racking my brain trying to think of a single reason why they thought keeping Chuck was a good idea, and I'm coming up empty. It is mind blowing that an organization that has tried to build around strong pitching development has kept someone so obviously inept. The more I think about the more "conspiracy theory" minded I get. Because either our top execs really are just incomprehensibly stupid, or it points to self-sabotage (which I know probably isn't true, so it has to be the former).... Unless someone can give me a good reason we retained him, I think keeping Chuck is some of the best evidence of our front office's ineptitude.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Enscheff I know he didn't pitch much, but do you have any data on Akeel Morris and his FA/CH combo? Because I have always been higher on Akeel than some other fans because of what I perceive to be a borderline elite changeup, but I would like to see some data that can show it one way or the other.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
The single dumbest thing the Braves have done the last couple of years is listen to the allstar 1B and strip Snit of the interim label. We missed on Black because our players wanted to play hard for Snit. chuckie should have never been hired either. He has sucked everywhere he goes.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I'm going to defer from opinion on the effectiveness of the pitching coach. I don't like last year's results. I'd rather think it was the pitching coach than the players, but am aware that is often fans wishful thinking that drives them to want to can assistants in all sports.
If there were a guy out there that has a long history of turning around pitchers or bringing along young ones, I'd be for that. I don't think Hernandez has that reputation.
Rotograghs did a breakdown of Fried's stuff: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/max-fried-2018-deep-sleeper/
The author loves his fastball because it has low spin, good sink and generates ground balls.
Fried gets 7.3" of rise on his fastball, which is neither good rise (9.1" average) nor good sink (5.5" average). It falls right in the middle...danger zone.
If Fried switches to a sinker with that low RPM he will likely end up with a pitch with above average sink. I think that and improved command is the key to him sticking in the rotation.
The author loves his fastball because it has low spin, good sink and generates ground balls.
Fried gets 7.3" of rise on his fastball, which is neither good rise (9.1" average) nor good sink (5.5" average). It falls right in the middle...danger zone.
If Fried switches to a sinker with that low RPM he will likely end up with a pitch with above average sink. I think that and improved command is the key to him sticking in the rotation.