Grading the Braves' Four-seam Fastballs (FA)

EL just did an in person scouting report on Kluber: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-corey-kluber-as-an-exercise/

He hung the following grades on his pitches:

"70 command, 60 fastball, 60 cutter, 70 slider, 50 curveball, 50 changeup, with elite sequencing and pitchability."

The data I have breaks his pitches down as follows:

FA - 48 grade velo, 40 grade h-mov, 45 grade v-mov
I have this as a grade 45/50 pitch, not grade 60.

SI - 53 grade velo, 46 grade h-mov, 50 grade v-mov
I have this as a 55 grade pitch, which is betetr than his 4-seamer.

FC - 53 grade velo, 54 grade h-mov, 66 grade v-mov
I have this as a 55/60 grade pitch, so pretty much agree with EL.

SL - 50 grade velo, 77 grade h-mov, 48 grade v-mov
I have this as a grade 70 pitch, just like EL. It is a very good pitch.

CU - No data
This is likely due to the fact EL couldn't determine if they were really two different pitches.

CH - 46 grade velo delta from FA/FC/SI, 44 grade h-mov, 57 grade v-mov
I would call this a 50 grade CH, just like EL.

Command - Sub-2.0 BB/9 is my proxy for command, which is grade 70+
I agree with the 70 grade command from EL.
 
Enscheff said:
EL just did an in person scouting report on Kluber: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-corey-kluber-as-an-exercise/

He hung the following grades on his pitches:

"70 command, 60 fastball, 60 cutter, 70 slider, 50 curveball, 50 changeup, with elite sequencing and pitchability."

The data I have breaks his pitches down as follows:

FA - 48 grade velo, 40 grade h-mov, 45 grade v-mov
I have this as a grade 45/50 pitch, not grade 60.

SI - 53 grade velo, 46 grade h-mov, 50 grade v-mov
I have this as a 55 grade pitch, which is betetr than his 4-seamer.

FC - 53 grade velo, 54 grade h-mov, 66 grade v-mov
I have this as a 55/60 grade pitch, so pretty much agree with EL.

SL - 50 grade velo, 77 grade h-mov, 48 grade v-mov
I have this as a grade 70 pitch, just like EL. It is a very good pitch.

CU - No data
This is likely due to the fact EL couldn't determine if they were really two different pitches.

CH - 46 grade velo delta from FA/FC/SI, 44 grade h-mov, 57 grade v-mov
I would call this a 50 grade CH, just like EL.

Command - Sub-2.0 BB/9 is my proxy for command, which is grade 70+
I agree with the 70 grade command from EL.
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So basically Kluber is the floor for Soroka correct? lol
 
Enscheff said:
Arsenals for Braves Pitchers

Fried: 40 FA, 60 CU, 55 CH

Fried's FA verges on unusable due to a very low spin rate that results in a horribly flat pitch. I would like to see him switch to a SI instead, which I think could be an above average pitch.
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I just read the Yankees are doing something very similar with Dillon Tate: http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2018/02/14_yankees_spring_training_observations_will_they.html

"Dillon Tate is working on a new pitch — that’s not the story. It’s a two-seamer — that’s not really story either. It’s how he started throwing it. Tate said the Yankees’ analytics department sized up his arm angle and spin rate and told him he’d be a “good candidate” to throw the pitch, so he’s been working on it."

Watch the Yankees acquire Fried, teach him a sinker, and have him become a 3 win SP.
 
Enscheff said:
I just read the Yankees are doing something very similar with Dillon Tate: http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2018/02/14_yankees_spring_training_observations_will_they.html

"Dillon Tate is working on a new pitch — that’s not the story. It’s a two-seamer — that’s not really story either. It’s how he started throwing it. Tate said the Yankees’ analytics department sized up his arm angle and spin rate and told him he’d be a “good candidate” to throw the pitch, so he’s been working on it."

Watch the Yankees acquire Fried, teach him a sinker, and have him become a 3 win SP.
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Ya know, to be on the safe side someone ought to tweet this at AA and Fried. Just in case
 
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Tapate50 said:
Ya know, to be on the safe side someone ought to tweet this at AA and Fried. Just in case
Click to expand...

It’s also interesting because that means the Yankees have statcast hardware installed in their minor league parks, at least as low as AA.

Is there any info about the Braves having similar equipment in their minor league parks?
 
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Enscheff said:
It’s also interesting because that means the Yankees have statcast hardware installed in their minor league parks, at least as low as AA.

Is there any info about the Braves having similar equipment in their minor league parks?
Click to expand...

No. I think Longenhan even mentioned something in a chat about our MILB and MLB data being so inaccurate its hard to even justify using it.

But, seriously... someone(!) really ought to tweet this at Fried and AA. See where it goes.
 
We finally have some real data for Ohtani. He mainly threw FA, SL, and FS, but he also threw 3 CUs. The data:

FA: velo = 98.3 (Grade 73.8), HMov = 4.0" (Grade 43.4), VMov = 8.0" (Grade 40.7)
This is a 4 seamer with elite velocity and below average movement that knocks it down a bit. This matches up with Sullivan's comment, "Ohtani’s fastball has big velocity, but it still might not be a swing-and-miss pitch. It comes with a roughly average spin rate, and it doesn’t profile as one of the classic rising four-seamers". I would hang a 65/70 grade on it overall.

SL: velo = 82.7 (Grade 41.8), HMov = 9.3" (Grade 80+), VMov = -0.4" (Grade 59.4)
This is a huge slow sweeping slider. He gets horizontal movement typically only seen by side-armers. It's hard not to call this a 70/75 grade pitch.

FS: velo = 89.8, HMov = 3.4", VMov = -0.3"
I don't have much data on splitters since nobody throws them, but they serve the same purpose as a change. Graded as such, it has Grade 53.7 FB-FS velocity delta, Grade 19.5 HMov, and Grade 71.1 VMov. It doesn't move side to side at all (obviously), but it has very good drop (also pretty obvious). Given the lack of other splitter data to compare it to, and how shakey the comp to change-ups is, I would hang a tentative Grade 55 on the FS.

CU: velo - 75.4 (Grade 38.5), HMov = 7.4" (Grade 67.4), VMov = -11.8" (Grade 80+)
He only threw this pitch 3 times. It is a slow curve with HUGE break. Based on this tiny amount of data, it looks to be a Grade 65/70 pitch. This pitch is fascinating, and I would like to see it used more data is available on it.
 
long story short, Ohtani is basically a guarantee to be very good as long as he's healthy. if we needed any more evidence that his ST meant nothing..
 
Bump on this. I think Wisler should to be true what most were saying about him in this thread. A guy with good stuff who can pitch a great game if he doesn’t make mistakes. I don’t think anyone should read more into his start than what is on this thread. He most certainly deserves another start though. If he leverages his slider like last night he can be successful.

I wouldn’t mind seeing this bumped again mid season to see if anyone has improved or changed. Maybe couple this with pitch % thrown to see which guys are using their best pitch correctly and see how it correlates to their successful/unsuccessfully season.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Bump on this. I think Wisler should to be true what most were saying about him in this thread. A guy with good stuff who can pitch a great game if he doesn’t make mistakes. I don’t think anyone should read more into his start than what is on this thread. He most certainly deserves another start though. If he leverages his slider like last night he can be successful.

I wouldn’t mind seeing this bumped again mid season to see if anyone has improved or changed. Maybe couple this with pitch % thrown to see which guys are using their best pitch correctly and see how it correlates to their successful/unsuccessfully season.
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Wisler thru 3 starts (2 Gwinnett and 1 Atlanta)...
19.0 ip 8 h 4 er 1 bb 19 k

I really hope this is even close to real. At the end of ST, Bill Dennis wrote a post on talking chop about which players were primed to have a good season based on certain ST stats... Dennis listed Wisler as one looking good.
 
Wisler has too many pitchers with more upside behind him. That might even be the case with Folty and Newcomb. We need to get Wisler back to the minors soon and hope he holds it together down there, then we can trade him.
 
Eyeman said:
Wisler has too many pitchers with more upside behind him. That might even be the case with Folty and Newcomb. We need to get Wisler back to the minors soon and hope he holds it together down there, then we can trade him.
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It's not like there's many right on his heels. Wisler should definitely get more major league starts with his performance last night.
 
His slider looked great last night and had the Mets players fooled all night long. He has solid enough stuff to be a decent starter. Wisler most definitely will not be improving his value in the minors no matter how well he does. I say give him the 5th spot and lets see what he has. Sanchez has pitched well, but he has no future here and won't let us anything of value in a trade pretty much no matter how he pitches.
 
Eyeman said:
Wisler has too many pitchers with more upside behind him. That might even be the case with Folty and Newcomb. We need to get Wisler back to the minors soon and hope he holds it together down there, then we can trade him.
Click to expand...

He's not going to build any trade value in the minors, I don't think. Everyone has seen that before and it will be the same flyer either way. They only way he's building value is if he shows it in the majors.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Bump on this. I think Wisler should to be true what most were saying about him in this thread. A guy with good stuff who can pitch a great game if he doesn’t make mistakes. I don’t think anyone should read more into his start than what is on this thread. He most certainly deserves another start though. If he leverages his slider like last night he can be successful.

I wouldn’t mind seeing this bumped again mid season to see if anyone has improved or changed. Maybe couple this with pitch % thrown to see which guys are using their best pitch correctly and see how it correlates to their successful/unsuccessfully season.
Click to expand...

What's interesting is if you look at how I graded Wisler's overall arsenal: 50 FA, 40/45 SI, 50 CU, 55/60 SL, 45/50 CH

It is very close to Teheran's current arsenal, and Teheran has experienced some recent success by throwing the FA (a terrible pitch) about half as often as he used to.

When I said this about Wisler, "That is a lot of usable pitches...Seems to me he's a guy another team might be able to "fix"", I assumed that team would not be the Braves. However, Wisler threw 102 pitches last night, and they were:

53 FA (52%)
6 SI (6%)
4 CU (4%)
39 SL (38%)
0 CH

For his career, he has thrown the SI roughly 21% of the time, and the SL 32% of the time.

It seems to me someone may have told him that his SI sucks, and his SL is good, so he adjusted his pitch selection accordingly. Perhaps the Braves new analytics team have "fixed" Wisler?
 
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I'm pretty sure someone told Wisler to throw more stinkers (i meant sinkers but will leave the typo) two or three years ago...terrible advice
 
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