Stanton
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think they will get more but not a lot more. If the Marlins want a lot more they will have to take on some of the financial risk and probably make a trade with another team.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Every team talking to the Marlins has to make an assessment of that risk.
Hudson2
Well-known member
At least Boston could DH him if he gets to big to run around or gets more injury prone.
The Marlins are reportedly willing to keep part of his contract: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/giancarlo-stanton-rumors-tuesday.html
"Miami is said to be open to hanging on to some of Stanton’s contract. Additionally, the team is focused on achieving value rather than on getting young pitching, specifically."
If I were the Marlins, I would agree to eat a portion of the post opt out contract, banking on the fact that Stanton is likely to opt out. Stanton carries significant surplus value if teams are protected from the danger that he does NOT opt out.
In exchange, I would demand at least 1 cheap MLB OFer to replace Stanton, and 1 cheap MLB-ready (or nearly ready) SP.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think the Marlins are going to go full rebuild. In which case it would be smart to take on some of the risk of Stanton not opting out to increase the return. If they are doing a full rebuild they would also be smart to focus on value rather than pitching or proximity to the majors.
Kinda scary to think about how fast they could turn things around if they did...
1.) Stanton nets them Verdugo, Yadier Alvarez, and Gavin Lux.
2.) Yelich nets them Moniak, Sixto Sanchez, and Adam Haseley.
3.) Ozuna nets them Alex Reyes and Harrison Bader.
4.) Realmuto nets them Ronald Guzman and Yohander Mendez.
5.) Bour nets them Nick Neidert and Povse.
6.) Gordon nets them Thomas Szapucki and Thomas Nido.
There's no way Philly makes that trade.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Financially, the Marlins need to move the contract. I don't think they have the flexibility now and probably won't later to have a lot of dead money.
It's an interesting call whether they want prospects or agree to eat contract liability. I think they might be better off having the clean payroll.
It's an interesting call whether they want prospects or agree to eat contract liability. I think they might be better off having the clean payroll.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
The first order of business definitely has to be shedding Stanton’s contract and trading Ozuna for legit pieces.
Maybe not, but that's the kind of package it's going to take to get him. Yelich is the last guy on their list of "need to get rid ofs".
There's no way most of those teams make any of those trades. Clv has repeatedly demonstrated zero ability to properly assess trade values.
It is interesting to note the Marlins will be signing a new TV contract almost exactly when Stanton is due to opt out/in. They will almost certainly be able to pay ~$10M per year after Stanton's opt out, especially if doing so gets them a premium package now. Take away the risk associated with Stanton opting in, and suddenly he has $50M-$75M in surplus value over the next 3 years.
That's exactly how I would play it if I were the Marlins. Something like Alex Reyes plus Grichuk/Piscotty (maybe both) from the Cards.
Having the Cards involved is strange to me. They've never been one to get stuck with a bad contract. They either trade a guy away towards the end of his arbitration or let the Pujols and Heywards of the world walk and be someone else's problem. Eventually this will be an overpay for whoever does get him.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
They may judge that Stanton' s contract is not bad.
Those lengthy contracts aren't bad in the beginning.
Stanton's contract is only bad if he doesn't opt out. If he opts in, and Miami has agreed to pay a chunk of the post opt out salary, it still isn't a bad contract.
There are several smart ways a team could acquire Stanton. I wish the Braves were in the position to potentially be that smart team.
It would be a lot more interesting than waiting on a Peter Moylan signing.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
There is no way Stanton opts out. He is owed 218 million after the opt out. He needs to have 3 more season like the past year to earn more than 218 at age 31 IMO. I too wish the Braves could acquire him if the Marlins would eat 8 to 10 million a year after the opt out.
If Stanton produces in 2018-2020 as he is projected to in this article:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-case-for-acquiring-stanton/
He will be projected to produce $258M in value in his age 31-37 seasons. In that case, he will opt out and be looking for something along the lines of $250M-$300M over 7-8 years, especially if he is on a team that isn't contending or he doesn't like for some other reason.
Harper and Machado are going to open some peoples eyes with where salary in baseball truly is.