Stanton

[Enscheff]

They did have Kemp.

Stanton is not a good risk.

They had Kemp and then were smart enough to get rid of him while other teams were dumb enough to take him. The Braves were just the last dumb team willing to take him on. Braves Way and all that.

If the Dodgers acquire Stanton I think it's safe to assume it was a smart move, and they will handle him intelligently in the future.

 

[Southcack77]

They had Kemp and then were smart enough to get rid of him while other teams were dumb enough to take him. The Braves were just the last dumb team willing to take him on. Braves Way and all that.

If the Dodgers acquire Stanton I think it's safe to assume it was a smart move, and they will handle him intelligently in the future.

I give you extra points for that one.

I hated the Kemp signing and thought it was bad move.

the best thing it has going for it, is about two decent half-seasons during a period the Braves were not contenders and shedding fairly significant amount of 2020 salary. Beyond that, it wasn't good at all.

If they can move him somehow manage to pay him the same or less than they would have owed Oliveira in 2019, I'd score it as a win, I guess.

That seems...improbable.

 

[biggentleben]

There's some odd clause somewhere (only heard part of the discussion the other day) that allows for the teams to negotiate that issue in the deal so that the player "remains whole" and gets the full amount of money he was promised when the original deal was reached. The numbers are only speculative on my part, but if the difference in taxes before he could opt-out were the holdup, I can't imagine Miami would let $10 million get in the way of them unloading $250 million.

Ben can probably track that info down.

Just another example of how strong the MLBPA is.

I actually was in a discussion on this with a couple writers from The Athletic the other day, and one got a few people into check on it.

Stanton going to California would stand to lose $25-33M, depending on his locality (because there is the possibility that he could see significant consumer tax as well, but the deal would be roughly $25M-28M, the rest on top is increased consumer costs due to added taxes in California). Teams would have the opportunity to offset that, but it has to be basically the exact tax number, and that number only. They can't add money to the deal (and of course, someone going to Florida doesn't have to give back the money that he is now keeping because of a lack of state income tax) outside of tearing up the deal and giving a completely new contract.

 

[Hulavol]

Quick Question for the experts.... let's say we had the payroll room available and we really wanted Stanton. And he really wanted us, so the no-trade clause wasn't an issue.
Realistically, what we have to give up to get him? In other words, outbid the SF Giants?

 

[nsacpi]

Quick Question for the experts.... let's say we had the payroll room available and we really wanted Stanton. And he really wanted us, so the no-trade clause wasn't an issue.
Realistically, what we have to give up to get him? In other words, outbid the SF Giants?

Either Soroka or Wright plus one other player in the bottom part of our Top 10 (Riley, Wentz, Wilson, Pache). That would be my guess in a deal with no money changing hands.

But it might not get it done. From the information I've seen (which admittedly is a bit sketchy) on what the Giants are offering, it looks they they are offering more. But there is some offset (again with only sketchy information) on how much salary the Marlins are prepared to absorb.

 

[Super]

Either Soroka or Wright plus one other player in the bottom part of our Top 10 (Riley, Wentz, Wilson, Pache). That would be my guess in a deal with no money changing hands.

But it might not get it done. From the information I've seen (which admittedly is a bit sketchy) on what the Giants are offering, it looks they they are offering more. But there is some offset (again with only sketchy information) on how much salary the Marlins are prepared to absorb.

The Giants don't even have a prospect nearly as good as Wright or Soroka.
The Cardinals side of the deal is rumored to be around Sandy Alcantara.

 

[nsacpi]

The Giants don't even have a prospect nearly as good as Wright or Soroka.

They don't. But from I'm read seem to have overcome that with quantity. A package of Shaw, Beede, Arroyo, and Ramos I believe. Sometimes Panik is mentioned.

Ramos is a prospect who is going to move up the prospect lists fast. What he did last year as a 17 year old is extremely impressive.

 

[Carp]

They had Kemp and then were smart enough to get rid of him while other teams were dumb enough to take him. The Braves were just the last dumb team willing to take him on. Braves Way and all that.

If the Dodgers acquire Stanton I think it's safe to assume it was a smart move, and they will handle him intelligently in the future.

Dodgers (or any team really) getting Stanton is a clear win-now move with little regard about the back end of the contract. As a GM, you make this move now to win in your window. Dodgers GM may not even be there in 4 years.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Dodgers (or any team really) getting Stanton is a clear win-now move with little regard about the back end of the contract. As a GM, you make this move now to win in your window. Dodgers GM may not even be there in 4 years.

I don't think that matters since the GM likely wouldn't have final call. I think ownership would have to nod on this contract.

I still say Stanton is going to LAD or NYY.

The thing is that the tax issue for this contract is really huge. If Ben is right above, then for Cali the number to overcome just to stay even is somewhere around $30M. I would assume that doesn't include things like property tax difference on where he lives.

So, if the Marlins had to send $50M just to get the deal done and SF would have to sweeten the contract by $30M to keep him whole, then the Giants would need the Marlins to send $80M total to offset. That is if the Marlins want anything at all back.

I think the Dodgers or Yankees get him in a 3 way trade where the third team send money or takes a contract. Something like: Stanton goes to Yankees and Marlins send $30M, Ozuna and Ellsbury go to the Cards and the Marlins get back Piscotty, Albert Abreu and Justus Sheffield. That would look horrible and be horrible for the Marlins but they are in a horrible position.

 

[Carp]

I don't think that matters since the GM likely wouldn't have final call. I think ownership would have to nod on this contract.

Perhaps. Of course as a GM you sell this narrative in many ways. Though I doubt an ownership like the Dodgers would have much of an issue with taking on a contract like this. They are pretty desperate for a WS win.

 

[Heyward]

Craig Mish‏
@CraigMish

Stanton 5 PM EST

Dodgers 70%
Giants 20%
Yankees 10%
Marlins 0%

 

[Heyward]

Stanton rejects trades to Giants and Cards, ok then.

 

[jpx7]

Stanton rejects trades to Giants and Cards, ok then.

What's he going to do if he realizes the Dodges simply don't want him if they have to give up anything of value to acquire him?

 

[NinersSBChamps]

Used to care for Stanton. After this display I hope his entitled butt rots in Miami.

 

[CyYoung31]

Yeah, he’s going to the ****ing Yankees.

 

[jpx7]

Used to care for Stanton. After this display I hope his entitled butt rots in Miami.

I'd have to say the exact opposite. He's indicated that he'd accept a trade to the Dodges, Yankees, Astros, or Cubs—all young, highly successful organizations either just-off or seemingly on-the-cusp-of winning the World Series. As someone who signed a contract to stay in Miami—showing loyalty to his organization despite its smaller market and lower profile—and who is now being pushed out of said organization, this seems like an example of a player using a NT for entirely reasonable ends, neither "entitled" nor cash-grabbing nor vindictive.

If he's going to be summarily exiled from his first and only organization, why shouldn't he seek out a situation with a high likelihood of competing now, while he's still in his prime? It's not his fault the Marlins boxed themselves into a corner and acceded to his NT-clause demands.

 

[Orphan Black]

Used to care for Stanton. After this display I hope his entitled butt rots in Miami.

Yeah here's to hoping the Marlins just keep him and trade everyone else like they told him they would do.

 

[CyYoung31]

I'd have to say the exact opposite. He's indicated that he'd accept a trade to the Dodges, Yankees, Astros, or Cubs—all young, highly successful organizations either just-off or seemingly on-the-cusp-of winning the World Series. As someone who signed a contract to stay in Miami—showing loyalty to his organization despite its smaller market and lower profile—and who is now being pushed out of said organization, this seems like an example of a player using a NT for entirely reasonable ends, neither "entitled" nor cash-grabbing nor vindictive.

If he's going to be summarily exiled from his first and only organization, why shouldn't he seek out a situation with a high likelihood of competing now, while he's still in his prime? It's not his fault the Marlins boxed themselves into a corner and acceded to his NT-clause demands.

You know that was a complete waste of energy, right?

 

[jpx7]

You know that was a complete waste of energy, right?

Because it's Niners?

 

[clvclv]

I'd have to say the exact opposite. He's indicated that he'd accept a trade to the Dodges, Yankees, Astros, or Cubs—all young, highly successful organizations either just-off or seemingly on-the-cusp-of winning the World Series. As someone who signed a contract to stay in Miami—showing loyalty to his organization despite its smaller market and lower profile—and who is now being pushed out of said organization, this seems like an example of a player using a NT for entirely reasonable ends, neither "entitled" nor cash-grabbing nor vindictive.

If he's going to be summarily exiled from his first and only organization, why shouldn't he seek out a situation with a high likelihood of competing now, while he's still in his prime? It's not his fault the Marlins boxed themselves into a corner and acceded to his NT-clause demands.

Exactly the reason I'm entirely against giving no-trade clauses OR opt-outs under ANY circumstances - if a player (or his representatives) feel the need to be in a position to dictate the moves I need to make for the future good of my franchise, maybe he's more interested in taking a management position instead.

I have absolutely no issue with Stanton exercising his contractually negotiated right in this situation whatsoever - I'd just hope that everyone that is in a position to negotiate those types of clauses for other organizations (particularly the Braves) is paying attention and has enough sense never to hire anyone involved with those negotiations when the Marlins gave him that deal. Maybe they get lucky if they keep him until his opt-out instead of trading him to the Dodgers or Yankees for 33 cents on the dollar to make his money disappear and he can go elsewhere and make as much money after they trade everyone else to cut payroll and he's stuck in another rebuild. Of course there's always the chance he gets seriously (given his history) and they wind up paying him all that money to be Kemp.

The chances of most of these guys exercising their opt-outs and moving on when their production declines is all but non-existent. The Giants are stuck with Cueto. The Cubs are stuck with Heyward. *ell, the Dodgers are stuck with Kershaw to an extent - how many other teams are going to offer him more than $32 million per now that he's missed big chunks of the last two seasons with back problems?

Yes, no-trades and opt-outs are part of the business of baseball these days, but if you're not a big-market club this is what your future is when you make the mistake of giving them.