2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION

BP (which has always liked us) puts our WS odds at 9.1% this morning.

Some notable 7-day deltas for playoff odds in the NL:

Phillies down 29.6%. Ouch! That's officially a fade.
Dodgers down 20.5%. Machado was a good move. But there is no guarantee in baseball.
Cardinals up 19.8%.
Rockies up 22.1%.
Diamondbacks up 17.0%.
 
nsacpi said:
BP (which has always liked us) puts our WS odds at 9.1% this morning.

Some notable 7-day deltas for playoff odds in the NL:

Phillies down 29.6%. Ouch! That's officially a fade.
Dodgers down 20.5%. Machado was a good move. But there is no guarantee in baseball.

Cardinals up 19.8%.
Rockies up 22.1%.
Diamondbacks up 17.0%.
Click to expand...

Dodgers now 3.5 back in the WC. For all the cash and smart stuff and players. Baseball is funny.

Would Arizona be the favorite in the NL if you start talking about series matchups then?
 
nsacpi said:
BP (which has always liked us) puts our WS odds at 9.1% this morning.

Some notable 7-day deltas for playoff odds in the NL:

Phillies down 29.6%. Ouch! That's officially a fade.
Dodgers down 20.5%. Machado was a good move. But there is no guarantee in baseball.
Cardinals up 19.8%.
Rockies up 22.1%.
Diamondbacks up 17.0%.
Click to expand...

According to BP's most recent Hit List, the NL East "should be" as follows based on 2nd and 3rd order win percentages:

Braves 72-73 wins
Nats 70-71 wins
Phils 63-64 wins

The Phils have essentially been as lucky as the Nats have been unlucky. This has held mostly true all season, and it's finally starting to show a bit for the Phils.

The Nats just can't seem to get out of their own way, and it's joyous to watch.
 
It might also be helpful to understand that what Gausman is doing with the Braves is completely unsustainable.

Yes, folks cite his nice WAR number since coming to Atlanta, but he's doing it based on a .238 BABIP and a 4.3% HR/FB rate. His career numbers are .312 and 13.6%, which are very typical values. You don't have to be a nerd to understand what type of regression is in store based on those numbers.

He has also seen his K rate drop all the way to 5.67 K/9 with the Braves. No level of nerdiness is required to know that's not a great sign.

All told, his 2.00 ERA is a mirage, while his 3.16 FIP and 4.08 xFIP tell a story much closer to the truth.
 
Enscheff said:
It might also be helpful to understand that what Gausman is doing with the Braves is completely unsustainable.

Yes, folks cite his nice WAR number since coming to Atlanta, but he's doing it based on a .238 BABIP and a 4.3% HR/FB rate. His career numbers are .312 and 13.6%, which are very typical values. You don't have to be a nerd to understand what type of regression is in store based on those numbers.

He has also seen his K rate drop all the way to 5.67 K/9 with the Braves. No level of nerdiness is required to know that's not a great sign.

All told, his 2.00 ERA is a mirage, while his 3.16 FIP and 4.08 xFIP tell a story much closer to the truth.
Click to expand...

it's all SSS, including the k rate.
 
Super said:
it's all SSS, including the k rate.
Click to expand...

There's this narrative going around that "the Braves fixed Kevin Gausman!", by showing him how important it is to throw first pitch strikes.

The point is that Kevin Gausman with the Braves is exactly what he was with the O's.
 
Enscheff said:
There's this narrative going around that "the Braves fixed Kevin Gausman!", by showing him how important it is to throw first pitch strikes.

The point is that Kevin Gausman with the Braves is exactly what he was with the O's.
Click to expand...

How many people really think that? For someone who apparently hates straw men, you sure do love kicking them down.

I think people thought, ok good, he's a decent MLB starter who can help us, and we might even get the benefit of him pitching to a new league initially. That's about it.

Even you said, 'The early returns on the Gaus trade couldnt have been much better' after his last start.
 
smootness said:
How many people really think that? For someone who apparently hates straw men, you sure do love kicking them down.

I think people thought, ok good, he's a decent MLB starter who can help us, and we might even get the benefit of him pitching to a new league initially. That's about it.

Even you said, 'The early returns on the Gaus trade couldnt have been much better' after his last start.
Click to expand...

https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/8/...good-who-knew-apparently-baltimore-didnt-know

And yes, the returns so far couldn't have been much better, even if those returns are unsustainable.

Once again, reading comprehension gets the best of you...
 
Enscheff said:
Once again, reading comprehension gets the best of you...
Click to expand...

If someone else had said the early returns couldn't be much better, you'd assume they were trying to say that meant he would continue it, shout at them about how unsustainable it was, mock them for being stupid, and then start a thread listing out why everyone on here is a dumb idiot who can't talk trash like you, never played ball like you, and list out 25 stats that prove how much of a blind homer everyone is.

If you're going to respond to another website on here, at least link what you're responding to.
 
smootness said:
If someone else had said the early returns couldn't be much better, you'd assume they were trying to say that meant he would continue it, shout at them about how unsustainable it was, mock them for being stupid, and then start a thread listing out why everyone on here is a dumb idiot who can't talk trash like you, never played ball like you, and list out 25 stats that prove how much of a blind homer everyone is.

If you're going to respond to another website on here, at least link what you're responding to.
Click to expand...

LOL, I suppose it's hard for some to understand what the comment "early returns" means. I'm not surprised you were confused, but it in no way implies it is sustainable.

But hey, nice attempt at building a straw man to knock down about 30 minutes after incorrectly accusing me of doing the same haha.

Consistent logical thought and reading comprehension are both proving hard for you today it seems. Maybe it's time for a nap?
 
smootness said:
How many people really think that? For someone who apparently hates straw men, you sure do love kicking them down.

I think people thought, ok good, he's a decent MLB starter who can help us, and we might even get the benefit of him pitching to a new league initially. That's about it.

Even you said, 'The early returns on the Gaus trade couldnt have been much better' after his last start.
Click to expand...

If you can split the difference in his FIP and xFIP and clock in around 3.50 ERA, it would be a huge acquisition.

Even if you just gave him about a half run for changing leagues, he'd be very useful at 4.00 ERA and the arm strength to make it through the playoffs.

Nothing but accolades for the pitching acquisitions that Anthopolous made from me. I was skeptical that Venters had anything left, but that's been a lovely so far.
 
Sources: the braves claimed Mark Reynolds on waivers, and he was pulled back by the nats (happened a few/several days ago). Upshot: Reynolds remains a nat
 
Enscheff said:
LOL, I suppose it's hard for some to understand what the comment "early returns" means. I'm not surprised you were confused, but it in no way implies it is sustainable.

But hey, nice attempt at building a straw man to knock down about 30 minutes after incorrectly accusing me of doing the same haha.

Consistent logical thought and reading comprehension are both proving hard for you today it seems. Maybe it's time for a nap?
Click to expand...

For someone who sees himself as extremely smart, you're not very good at understanding a pretty clear point.
 
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