2018 Offseason And Targets

[Super]

I actually wouldn't be so sure on Grandal staying with his club. LA might want to stay under the soft tax. I'm not sure what the number will be to get him though.

LA is also going to want to pay Machado whatever he wants. Combined with having young catchers who are probably ready to play, I doubt they throw a ton at Grandal.

 

[Enscheff]

I disagree nobody is taking JT. He's not paid that much and has an option. AA is creative. Maybe we move our under performer for another team's position player under performer. I think if we really wanted the salary gone we could attach something we wouldn't miss.

I think we should leave 5 million unspent for the basically free deadline upgrades we saw this year.

I still think our biggest issue is that we have like 10 third starters and I don't think we'll sign a difference maker.

OK....so trading Teheran for someone making similar money still leaves the payroll in about the same place. They still have $40M-$45M to spend with a hole in the rotation vs a hole on the bench.

There is no reason to trade Julio. He is perfectly capable of filling out the back of the rotation, and eliminates the need to sign some veteran filler for the rotation the Braves always seem to be shopping for.

If the Braves make a trade it will most likely be consolidating young pitching talent into a single MLB asset. That asset could be a cOF, C, or SP (hopefully not).

 

[Super]

i agree we'd be lucky if the FO is shopping in the Pollock/Grandal aisle. I just think they kinda have to, or at least land another impact player somewhere, somehow. I'm not sure expected improvement from young guys is enough to carry the division again.

 

[Enscheff]

LA is also going to want to pay Machado whatever he wants. Combined with having young catchers who are probably ready to play, I doubt they throw a ton at Grandal.

Huh? The Dodgers have Turner at 3B and Seager coming back to SS.

I agree they are probably smart enough to let Grandal walk though.

 

[Super]

Huh? The Dodgers have Turner at 3B and Seager coming back to SS.

I agree they are probably smart enough to let Grandal walk though.

I thought they may move Turner to 2B, but I didn't realize how good Hernandez was this year.
In that case I could see them trying to keep Grandal, even with the young catchers. Young catchers are tough.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Here is what I think is likely to happen:

1) Re-sign Suzuki at about $5M/one year
2) Re-sign Sanchez at about $5M/one year
3) Sign Asdrubal Cabrera about $8M per year/2 years
4) Trade Newcomb to the Diamondbacks for David Peralta.

Rotation at the start of the season will be: Folty, Gausman, Sanchez, Teheran and Fried

Cabrera will play 2-3 games a week. Mostly spelling Camargo, Swanson and Albies against righties.

Duvall will play against lefties, with either Peralta or Inciarte being given the day off.

Pen will have 4 righties from among Viz, Winkler, O'Day, Carle and Sobotka, and 4 lefties--Venters, Minter, Biddle and Freeman.

AA will keep a fair amount of powder dry for mid-season moves.

We will have a nice group of players in AAA to bring up as needed: Riley, Touki, Gohara, Soroka, Wright, Wilson. We can ease Gohara and Soroka back into things and limit their workload so they can come in an make a big contribution later in the season. You always need 8 or so starting pitchers to get through a major league season.

This the outline of what I see happening. Obviously the details could be different. There are alternatives to Peralta such as Marte or Piscotty we could trade for. Similarly we could sign Marwin Gonzalez or Eduardo Escobar instead of Asdrubal Cabrera. I do think the focus will be on left-handed or switch hitting hitters who do well against righties. Our team currently leans a bit right-handed including 2 switch hitters (Albies and Camargo) who hit better from the right side. We need to balance that out a bit.

I would add both Suzuki and Sanchez have made clear they would like to come back. If you can keep veterans like that on sub-market one-year deals it is foolish not to do so.

I think that an offseason like that could happen, but I think we end up spending a bit more than you outlined. At maximum, this offseason would put our payroll at 90 million dollars once factoring in arbitration and all that. Probably less. I think its going to be more in the 110 million dollar range, with 10-15 million held back for mid-season moves. Isn't that about what our capacity for payroll is estimated to be? About 120?

So with that in mind, I think we will let Suzuki walk and search for a catcher on the trade/FA market.

-I think the most likely addition there is Grandal at something around 4 years 75 million structured at 18, 18, 19, 20. That is a bit long for my taste, but its not too bad and it adds another switch hitting catcher with a good bat and solid D to the lineup.

-Then I think we explore the market for outfielders through trade. I think we look for a lefty here. I'd love to add a guy like Eddie Rosario if the Twins were willing and I would definitely give up Newcomb plus a little bit more for him. Peralta is an interesting candidate, but he only has two years of control left and will be 31 so I'd have to think about it. Also some other names to consider are guys like Conforto, Gallo, Kepler, or Mazara. There are also some free agents out there, but I think the ideal name would be Rosario if the Twins were amenable to a deal.

-We need to extend our bench depth and I think we need to find a switch hitting versatile player to add that component to our team. The three names that we all keep mentioning are Escobar, Cabrera, and less commonly Marwin Gonzalez. I'm sure that financials would dictate a lot of this, but I think we will easily be able to get one of these names. Escobar would be my preference, but we may be priced out on him or he may not be willing to serve that super utility role that we need. If it was between Cabrera and Gonzalez, I think I would prefer to grab Marwin. He had a nice bounceback after a slow start to the season and I just believe in his ability to fill that role a little more than Cabrera. I also like Gonzalez' versatility a bit more than Cabrera's. I honestly think we could be able to sign him for something like a 3 year deal at 25-30 million.

-At this point I think our payroll would be around 95-100 million. I think we should target a bullpen arm through free agency to get to that 110 million mark I spoke of. I think opinions are split on if we should target a lefty or a righty, but I lean towards a righty. With that in mind, there are several names that we could target and possibly fit in our payroll: Cody Allen, Familia, Herrera, Ottavino, and Adam Warren among some others. If we could get Familia for less than 15 million per year, then that is the deal that I would do.

So in my eyes, the *perfect* offseason for us would be:

-Grandal at 4/75
-Trade for Rosario
-Escobar at 4/55
-Familia at 3/40

It would be a tight squeeze to fit all that into the payroll and it might not be possible. But I think that group would make us the clear favorites in the NL East heading into 2019.

The more reasonable offseason would looke like this:

-Sign Grandal at 4/75
-Trade for Kepler
-Sign Marwin at 3/28
-Sign a journeyman pitcher or two cheaply

This offseason would make us better, but would be slightly underwhelming for some folks I think.

 

[nsacpi]

Just looked up Kepler's year. It looks like he improved his defense dramatically. He also improved his BB rate and cut down on his K's while having the lowest BABIP of his young career.

Those are all very good signs. He could take that next step in 2019.

yup...I like the upside

 

[BeanieAntics]

Huh? The Dodgers have Turner at 3B and Seager coming back to SS.

I agree they are probably smart enough to let Grandal walk though.

I'm conflicted on Grandal. On one hand I know that signing an aging catcher like him to big money is probably a big mistake long term, but on the other hand it sure would be nice to plug him into the lineup for a couple of years. Its a tough call. Maybe we are better off keeping what we have at catcher for another year or trying to swing a trade for a Perez or a Realmuto. I'm really not sure at this point.

 

[BeanieAntics]

What are we honestly expecting payroll to be next year? Something in the 115-120 million range correct? Or maybe 105-110 to keep some in the coffers for offseason additions? Right now we are at 58 before arbitration considerations.

 

[nsacpi]

What are we honestly expecting payroll to be next year? Something in the 115-120 million range correct? Or maybe 105-110 to keep some in the coffers for offseason additions? Right now we are at 58 before arbitration considerations.

I'm thinking OD around 120M with 15M held back for midseason deals...which prorates to being able to take on about 30m in annualized contracts at the deadline.

This year we took on the following contracts at mid-season: O'Day (8M), Gausman (5.6), Brach (5.165), Venters (1M), and Duvall (.645). Total a little over 20M. I think we want a bit more allocated for mid-season moves next year.

 

[seanyates]

I'd like to see them bring Sanchez back on a one-year deal, trade Newcomb+ for Travis Shaw, make a run at Grandal and sign a couple decent relievers.

 

[nsacpi]

Grandal just finished his age 29 season. He averaged 3 fWAR in his past three seasons.

McCann hit free agency at the same age and with similar production. He got a 5 year deal at 17M/year. Add some inflation and Grandal is going to be close to 20M/year.

McCann has aged at a fairly typical rate for a catcher and is in the last year of that deal. During those five years he put up a little less that 2 WAR per season. That's what I would project for Grandal over the next five year. Whoever signs him will be paying 9-10M per win. Which is about the market rate these days.

A Flowers/Suzuki combo at half the price and no risk from long-term obligations looks a lot better to me.

Save the money and make your big splash at mid-season. This year we were very lucky with injuries. I bet next year a key player goes down for the season. It sure would be nice to have the flexibility to deal with that.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Grandal just finished his age 29 season. He averaged 3 fWAR in his past three seasons.

McCann hit free agency at the same age and with similar production. He got a 5 year deal at 17M/year. Add some inflation and Grandal is going to be close to 20M/year.

McCann has aged at a fairly typical rate for a catcher and is in the last year of that deal. During those five years he put up a little less that 2 WAR per season. That's what I would project for Grandal over the next five year. Whoever signs him will be paying 9-10M per win. Which is about the market rate these days.

A Flowers/Suzuki combo at half the price and no risk from long-term obligations looks a lot better to me.

Save the money and make your big splash at mid-season. This year we were very lucky with injuries. I bet next year a key player goes down for the season. It sure would be nice to have the flexibility to deal with that.

That's the reason I was pushing for a Flowers/Suzuki/McCann combo earlier. All three good with young pitching. Good chance one of the three will be down at any point in time. All "decent" bench bats with McCann capable of playing 1B in a pinch.

If you go with an all-purpose Culberson on the bench and add another decent utility guy (which you would want anyway) it could work and all on short deals with little financial commitment.

 

[Enscheff]

Grandal s going to be in the range of 4/80 or 5/90, possibly more.

It would be incredibly risky to commit that kind of money to an aging catcher, but the Braves are limited in places to add impact players.

 

[Enscheff]

The Dodgers just showed the benefit of being able to throw quality player after quality player into the lineup as situations demand.

I expect to see AA fill out the bench with higher quality players next year, so a significant portion of the payroll could be used to accomplish that goal. Acquisitions like Duvall and Culberson are just the start of that trend.

 

[Tapate50]

Question...

Do you think teams are still willing to give catchers 5 years at 29 years old? I know McCann and Martin got 5 years, but that hasn't worked out well at all and McCann got it but is tailing off pretty hard.

 

[nsacpi]

The Dodgers just showed the benefit of being able to throw quality player after quality player into the lineup as situations demand.

I expect to see AA fill out the bench with higher quality players next year, so a significant portion of the payroll could be used to accomplish that goal. Acquisitions like Duvall and Culberson are just the start of that trend.

Yes. And I would also prioritize having more flexibility to take on contracts at the trade deadline. For example, it would be nice to be able to pick up a high profile reliever whose team has dropped out of contention.

 

[Southcack77]

OK....so trading Teheran for someone making similar money still leaves the payroll in about the same place. They still have $40M-$45M to spend with a hole in the rotation vs a hole on the bench.

There is no reason to trade Julio. He is perfectly capable of filling out the back of the rotation, and eliminates the need to sign some veteran filler for the rotation the Braves always seem to be shopping for.

If the Braves make a trade it will most likely be consolidating young pitching talent into a single MLB asset. That asset could be a cOF, C, or SP (hopefully not).

I agree that Teheran will be difficult to move.

I disagree that moving him creates any sort of actual hole on the roster.

to the extent that it does, the Braves can probably go find a veteran who can put up a lucky .7 WAR for less than 12 million dollars.

No sense creating a list of all the young pitchers who could fill a 6th starter role for the minimum for the Braves again, but there are a lot of those guys.

 

[nsacpi]

Question...

Do you think teams are still willing to give catchers 5 years at 29 years old? I know McCann and Martin got 5 years, but that hasn't worked out well at all and McCann got it but is tailing off pretty hard.

I think Grandal will show the answer is yes. And for some teams (like the Dodgers and Yankees) it is not bad business to do this. For the Braves it is a bit too risky given the team's budget. But also if you look at it from the contending window perspective, the window has opened for the Braves, but it will probably be at its widest in 3 or 4 years, at which point the bang for the buck ratio from that kind of deal for Grandal becomes less favorable.

Btw Lucroy is another catcher who was very good and went south pretty fast. If he had hit the market after 2016 (his age 30 season) he would have gotten a McCann like contract.

 

[Enscheff]

Question...

Do you think teams are still willing to give catchers 5 years at 29 years old? I know McCann and Martin got 5 years, but that hasn't worked out well at all and McCann got it but is tailing off pretty hard.

Mac produced over 9 wins and pretty much followed the predicted aging curve exactly as predicted. That contract played out almost exactly as planned.

Martin has produced 8 wins and has also aged almost exactly as expected. Another contract that produced the expected value.

Both contracts worked out exactly as projected. They are not examples against signing Grandal. They are examples to look to when projecting Grandals future value.