2018 Offseason And Targets

[Enscheff]

3 years 21M...very good signing for the Dbacks

It certainly seems like he left a bit of money on the table, which is probably why the DBacks inked him to this deal despite still being in limbo as to what exactly their plans are this off season. I expect Marwin to sign for a lot more than $21M.

From the Braves perspective, if Riley truly is considered the 3B of the near future, then Camargo represents a close approximation to guys like Marwin and Escobar for league minimum. I would be a little surprised to see the Braves sign an expensive utility IFer this off season with Culberson and Camargo already on the roster. If they do acquire one that means they have less faith in Riley/Camargo than we think.

IMO, the more pressing need for the bench is a 4th OFer who isn't a complete turd at the plate...sort of like what Duvall was supposed to be. Marwin still fits that role as well, but I think he'll be a little too expensive as a bench player soaking up about 1/3 of the available 2019 payroll space (Prado got 3/40).

More likely we see the 2019 version of Flaherty who allows Camargo to start at 3B while Riley gets some more time in AAA.

 

[nsacpi]

It certainly seems like he left a bit of money on the table, which is probably why the DBacks inked him to this deal despite still being in limbo as to what exactly their plans are this off season. I expect Marwin to sign for a lot more than $21M.

From the Braves perspective, if Riley truly is considered the 3B of the near future, then Camargo represents a close approximation to guys like Marwin and Escobar for league minimum. I would be a little surprised to see the Braves sign an expensive utility IFer this off season with Culberson and Camargo already on the roster. If they do acquire one that means they have less faith in Riley/Camargo than we think.

IMO, the more pressing need for the bench is a 4th OFer who isn't a complete turd at the plate...sort of like what Duvall was supposed to be. Marwin still fits that role as well, but I think he'll be a little too expensive as a bench player soaking up about 1/3 of the available 2019 payroll space (Prado got 3/40).

More likely we see the 2019 version of Flaherty who allows Camargo to start at 3B while Riley gets some more time in AAA.

I'm surprised you've given up on Duvall on what is a fairly small sample. I would give him a shot to essentially play against lefties in 2019. We can replace him with Riley if need be at some point in the season, with Riley playing third against lefties and Camargo becoming a swingman between infield and outfield.

I think Marwin Gonzalez will end up with a three year deal and AAV of 8-9M. Asdrubal Cabrera probably will get two years for about the same AAV. Neil Walker is a cheaper alternative. The Blue Jays might not pick up Solarte's option. In the event they do, they are probably willing to trade him for not very much. Dietrich is another trade option.

I think the Braves will make it part of their off-season plans to pick up a good bench player. Probably a lefty or switch hitter. Ideally someone who can play infield and outfield.

Bench would look like this:

Catcher
Duvall (play against lefties)
Gonzalez/Cabrera/Walker/etc play (2-3 games a week)
Culberson (play 1 game a week)

Riley is in AAA and will be called up as needs arise during the season.

I don't see AA planning on having someone like Lane Adams or Preston Tucker being part of the bench in 2019. Except on a short term basis when injuries pile up.

 

[Enscheff]

I haven't given up on Duvall, but I was never a huge fan of spending additional resources to acquire a role player just because he had extra team control. He is now projected to earn $3M+ and is a strong NT candidate.

The Braves do shoehorn Culberson into LF quite often, so maybe they don't need to acquire a 4th OFer if they also keep Duvall. In that scenario I think your idea of getting someone like Cabrera or Walker makes a good amount of sense, as does someone like Descalso..basically everyone the Braves were connected to at the deadline.

Marwin is likely too expensive for a bench role. I expect him to get closer to Prado's 3/40 than Escobar's 3/21. He would be a nice value at the 3/24 or 3/27 you suggest.

 

[nsacpi]

I haven't given up on Duvall, but I was never a huge fan of spending additional resources to acquire a role player just because he had extra team control. He is now projected to earn $3M+ and is a strong NT candidate.

The Braves do shoehorn Culberson into LF quite often, so maybe they don't need to acquire a 4th OFer if they also keep Duvall. In that scenario I think your idea of getting someone like Cabrera or Walker makes a good amount of sense, as does someone like Descalso..basically everyone the Braves were connected to at the deadline.

Marwin is likely too expensive for a bench role. I expect him to get closer to Prado's 3/40 than Escobar's 3/21. He would be a nice value at the 3/24 or 3/27 you suggest.

would it be smart to plan on Culberson having a big role in 2019...your own analysis has shown how lucky he was in 2018...I'm ok with having him as last man on the bench but nothing more

with Duvall we can probably negotiate him down to about $2M given that the option of non-tendering him is available

 

[clvclv]

I'm surprised you've given up on Duvall on what is a fairly small sample. I would give him a shot to essentially play against lefties in 2019. We can replace him with Riley if need be at some point in the season, with Riley playing third against lefties and Camargo becoming a swingman between infield and outfield.

I think Marwin Gonzalez will end up with a three year deal and AAV of 8-9M. Asdrubal Cabrera probably will get two years for about the same AAV. Neil Walker is a cheaper alternative. The Blue Jays might not pick up Solarte's option. In the event they do, they are probably willing to trade him for not very much. Dietrich is another trade option.

I think the Braves will make it part of their off-season plans to pick up a good bench player. Probably a lefty or switch hitter. Ideally someone who can play infield and outfield.

Bench would look like this:

Catcher
Duvall (play against lefties)
Gonzalez/Cabrera/Walker/etc play (2-3 games a week)
Culberson (play 1 game a week)

Riley is in AAA and will be called up as needs arise during the season.

I don't see AA planning on having someone like Lane Adams or Preston Tucker being part of the bench in 2019. Except on a short term basis when injuries pile up.

Given the range we're talking about him signing for following the Escobar deal, I'm that much higher on the idea of adding Gonzalez. DFA Duvall and use Marwin and Charlie in that RH hitter OF role, and you're only adding $5-$6 million to the payroll.

I don't know that it's so much giving up on Duvall as looking at Gonzalez as a huge upgrade since he offers somewhat similar pop while being able to play 6 other positions when needed as well as being another switch-hitter.

If you could add Gonzalez to pair with Brantley in LF (on no longer than a 3 year deal as well), wouldn't that be ideal? Say that pair costs you ~ $20 million per, that leaves you a nice chunk of change available to use on the 2nd Catcher and the pen, and buys you all the time Riley, Pache, and Waters could possibly need..

 

[Southcack77]

I haven't given up on Duvall, but I was never a huge fan of spending additional resources to acquire a role player just because he had extra team control. He is now projected to earn $3M+ and is a strong NT candidate.

The Braves do shoehorn Culberson into LF quite often, so maybe they don't need to acquire a 4th OFer if they also keep Duvall. In that scenario I think your idea of getting someone like Cabrera or Walker makes a good amount of sense, as does someone like Descalso..basically everyone the Braves were connected to at the deadline.

Marwin is likely too expensive for a bench role. I expect him to get closer to Prado's 3/40 than Escobar's 3/21. He would be a nice value at the 3/24 or 3/27 you suggest.

Whether to non-tender Duvall has to come down to a proxy of whether you think he's done or not.

If you think he's toast then you should non-tender.

If you think he's capable of 2016 or 2017, then 3M isn't really that significant a commitment.

------

I haven't really seen anyone do a big analysis of what was going on with him this past season. I don't really know what the answer is. I've been penciling him as non-tendered.

 

[nsacpi]

Whether to non-tender Duvall has to come down to a proxy of whether you think he's done or not.

If you think he's toast then you should non-tender.

If you think he's capable of 2016 or 2017, then 3M isn't really that significant a commitment.

------

I haven't really seen anyone do a big analysis of what was going on with him this past season. I don't really know what the answer is. I've been penciling him as non-tendered.

the threat of a non-tender should allow us to negotiate Duvall down

 

[Tapate50]

So basically what SRod should have been?

 

[nsacpi]

So basically what SRod should have been?

except SRod was a RHH

 

[Enscheff]

Whether to non-tender Duvall has to come down to a proxy of whether you think he's done or not.

If you think he's toast then you should non-tender.

If you think he's capable of 2016 or 2017, then 3M isn't really that significant a commitment.

------

I haven't really seen anyone do a big analysis of what was going on with him this past season. I don't really know what the answer is. I've been penciling him as non-tendered.

I haven’t looked much into anyone’s projections yet, but I think the fact he was left off the playoff roster is a clue they don’t have a lot of confidence in him moving forward. Even when he was “good” he was still a .300 OBP Guy.

If he was projected internally to be worth a roster spot in 2019, the same projections should have deemed him more valuable than LAdams in the playoffs.

 

[Enscheff]

would it be smart to plan on Culberson having a big role in 2019...your own analysis has shown how lucky he was in 2018...I'm ok with having him as last man on the bench but nothing more

with Duvall we can probably negotiate him down to about $2M given that the option of non-tendering him is available

Smart? Probably not.

Reality? Almost definitely.

Intelli-Braves know he is a SS backup and nothing more, but he will likely be viewed as much more than that at the beginning of 2019.

It’s much more likely Marwin is signed to be the guy in LF with his versatility as an added benefit. He’s going to be too expensive to be a bench player for a team with a $120M payroll, and will likely make more than the entire Braves bench combined.

 

[Southcack77]

I haven’t looked much into anyone’s projections yet, but I think the fact he was left off the playoff roster is a clue they don’t have a lot of confidence in him moving forward. Even when he was “good” he was still a .300 OBP Guy.

If he was projected internally to be worth a roster spot in 2019, the same projections should have deemed him more valuable than LAdams in the playoffs.

Fair point. But the organization did leave some other guys off the postseason roster who stand a decent chance of being back. Mostly in the pen though which is different.

 

[Enscheff]

Fair point. But the organization did leave some other guys off the postseason roster who stand a decent chance of being back. Mostly in the pen though which is different.

SPs were rostered in favor of BP arms.

Lane Adams directly replaced Adam Duvall as the RHH bench OFer. Duvall was deemed so bad going into the playoffs that the Braves had to carry a 3rd catcher just so Suzuki/Flowers could serve as the high leverage RHH off the bench. The Braves essentially opted to use 2 roster spots to replace Duvall rather than include him on the roster.

If Adams was the answer for the play offs, he should be the answer for 2019 as well. If Duvall wasn't projected to be better than LAdams in the 2018 playoffs, he should not project to be better in 2019. Any projection system that comes to any other conclusion is flawed, and I would be concerned if the Braves follow such projections.

Neither are viable options for 2019, in my opinion, and I would spend that $3M elsewhere. I suspect Duvall will be NT'd, but maybe someone sees something they think can be fixed over the off season that couldn't be fixed during the season.

Whatever the Braves decide to do with Duvall we can expect the spin machine to go into full effect. If he is tendered the line will be, "he is only 1 year removed from hitting 30 HRs and slugging nearly .500". If he is cut lose the line will be, "he was always a power-ionly guy who cratered with the Braves".

He will either be spun as a guy who is bound to be better, or a guy who wasn't worth worrying about, all contingent on whether he is tendered a contract. This is true of every debatable tender candidate.

 

[clvclv]

Not sure I understand why Gonzalez would need to be "just a bench guy" here any more than he was in Houston. The Astros found a way to get him 450+ ABs the last three years with a deeper roster.

The Braves faced LHSPs 47 times this season - for argument's sake, let's drop that to 40 times he'd start in LF if you signed Brantley. Say Riley doesn't come up until after the break at the earliest. He takes two starts at 3B every week to keep Camargo fresh and on his better platoon side whenever possible - there's 24 more starts. He makes one start a week in RF while Acuna slides over to give Ender a day off, and one start a week there to give Acuna a blow. There's 48 more starts. Another 6 at 1B to give Freddie one day off each month gets you to 118 games and around 413 ABs (at 3.5 per start). Pinch-hit and DH appearances will probably push him into the 430-440 AB territory, and you'd only have played him on the corners. If Riley doesn't force his way into the lineup in 2019, you'd add another 10-12 starts and ~40 ABs at 3B over the course of the year.

Go back to only using Culberson in the role you got him for - being the guy you use as the backup MI to occasionally give Dansby and Albies a blow to keep them fresh, as a "not terrible" bat off the bench as a pinch-hitter, and only at 3B or in LF in an emergency or on those days you want to sit both Brantley and Camargo against tough lefties.

 

[Enscheff]

So now you have the Braves signing both Brantley and Marwin?

I'm curious...what do you think those 2 players will cost?

And you don't sit Camargo vs LHP...ever. If you're going to propose platoon ideas, at least understand the platoon advantages for the players in question.

 

[Enscheff]

Bowman still insists on linking the Braves to a TOR SP in his latest mailbag, and thinks they may somehow trade for Realmuto AND acquire this TOR arm.

Bowman also thinks the Braves have $60 to spend this off season. Maybe he knows something we don't, or maybe he's an idiot.

 

[CrimsonCowboy]

Bowman still insists on linking the Braves to a TOR SP in his latest mailbag, and thinks they may somehow trade for Realmuto AND acquire this TOR arm.

Bowman also thinks the Braves have $60 to spend this off season. Maybe he knows something we don't, or maybe he's an idiot.

Even though the Braves have money to spend, the math to trade for both Relamuto and a top starter doesn’t add up to me.

 

[Hudson2]

I definitely see one big trade coming. If they see they can’t get Grandal then I think Realmuto will be the target. If we added Realmuto and Pollock to the lineup we would be tough to beat.

 

[UNCBlue012]

Bowman still insists on linking the Braves to a TOR SP in his latest mailbag, and thinks they may somehow trade for Realmuto AND acquire this TOR arm.

Bowman also thinks the Braves have $60 to spend this off season. Maybe he knows something we don't, or maybe he's an idiot.

Agreed. Maybe he’s right but I’d be really damn surprised.

 

[clvclv]

So now you have the Braves signing both Brantley and Marwin?

I'm curious...what do you think those 2 players will cost?

And you don't sit Camargo vs LHP...ever. If you're going to propose platoon ideas, at least understand the platoon advantages for the players in question.

Do you actually read posts before you take shots at me?

I've said for some time now that I'd love to pair Gonzalez with whatever imperfect corner OF bat AA adds - whether it's the oft-injured Pollock, Peralta, McCutchen, or Brantley, and even mentioned him as one of the main targets I'd have over a week ago (not just in multiple posts here, but in the blog you love to bitch about two weeks ago - https://whensidslidcronies.wordpress.com/2018/10/11/2019-offseason-blueprint-v1-0/).

I mentioned starting Gonzalez in LF the 40 times you'd sit Brantley against LHSPs. Gonzalez has a career tOPS+ of 98 vs. Brantley's career tOPS + of 81 against them, which obviously means you're not sitting Camargo against lefties. I mentioned trying to line Gonzalez' 3B starts up as often as possible when Johan doesn't have his platoon advantage (against RHSPs obviously) - which means he (and his career 101 tOPS+) starts there over Camargo's 88 tOPS+ against the tough righties.