2018 Offseason And Targets

[Southcack77]

Using our prospect currency to obtain a someone who plays <140 games a year is a terrible idea. Especially when there are quality options available to us already.

We don't have several easy outs. We were basically above average at every position offensively in 2018

This is not accurate.

The Braves were next to last in offensive production from the SS position. Bottom half in CF.

Braves had good productive from their catcher in comparison to other catchers, but we're talking about thawing out a platoon that performed slightly below league average for hitters overall.

That was good enough to be pretty good, but too many offensive holes, IMO, to really matchup with the cream of the league.

With Braves not really being to out pitch those opponents either, you were really asking for a 30% chance to hit.

 

[Hudson2]

Realmuto, Grandal, or bust

 

[Southcack77]

According to this site ( http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php ), realmuto was pretty bad at framing. Why build with pitching, then give the pitchers a bad receiver?

Pitch framing is just one aspect of being a catcher. I don't have a feel for just how important it is, but the writing seems to suggest that in general most all boats have been lifted by the pitch framing revolution. We're probably talking about a couple of pitches a game. The difference in Grandal and Realmuto is probably not going to be a significant impact on the performance of the pitching staff. And Realmuto is actually better at traditional defensive metrics, I think, than Grandal. If I recall correctly, have not looked at it in last month.


But the issue is really all about acquisition cost and will be significant for both. 18-20m for 4-5 years, plus loss of a pretty high draft pick from Grandal. Realmuto will cost his arb figures, plus a known prospect or two.

Tough to really say what would be costlier. I kind of think the payroll hit 4-5 years down the road will be more significant. I don't like exposure to long term risk in payroll except on the very best gambles (like 26 year old superstars, for example).

On balance I'd probably prefer to give up prospects. Though I would prefer Grandal on the 2019 team, I believe.

 

[nsacpi]

But the issue is really all about acquisition cost and will be significant for both.

Or as I like to put it bang for the buck. And I'm pretty much convinced Flower/Suzuki will give you a better bang to buck ratio than either Realmuto or Grandal. Of course, there are all sorts of scenarios that can depart from the most likely ones. But you make these kinds of decisions by appropriately weighting the range of outcomes.

Also in making these decisions you can't just focus on 2019. You have to take into account how you are affecting wins over a range of years by locking in a long term deal (in the case of Grandal) or dipping into the prospect pool (in the case of Realmuto).

 

[Southcack77]

Or as I like to put it bang for the buck. And I'm pretty much convinced Flower/Suzuki will give you a better bang to buck ratio than either Realmuto or Grandal. Of course, there are all sorts of scenarios that can depart from the most likely ones. But you make these kinds of decisions by appropriately weighting the range of outcomes.

Also in making these decisions you can't just focus on 2019. You have to take into account how you are affecting wins over a range of years by locking in a long term deal (in the case of Grandal) or dipping into the prospect pool (in the case of Realmuto).

I don't expect Flowers/Suzuki to continue being a positive offensive platoon. I think they are really only positive now in comparison to other catching duos. They aren't a net positive to the offense necessarily.

I think that the Braves need to upgrade their offense one way or another if they want to be real contenders. Catcher is one place where there are options. There are maybe four options out there that might be available that could help the Braves offense. Realmuto, Grandal, Ramos, and Cervelli (lot of trade chatter).

In terms of acquisition cost, I would guess it would go Cervelli (11m plus non-elite prospect), Ramos, Realmuto, Grandal. I'm pretty reluctant to give up a significant draft pick to get Grandal. I think the Braves future is probably much more tied up in whoever they draft this season than whoever they would trade from their bank of existing prospects now and tying 18-20m up 4-5 years from now on an aging catcher seems like a bad long term strategy.

Ramos would not come with the draft penalty and might be cheaper and a shorter deal. I think though that he'll have several big market options after Grandal gets sorted out. So not sure where his market ends up.

Cervelli is possible available. If not now, then at the deadline when the Pirates are forced to admit they aren't in it. at 11m for one year, that's not really a significant burden and I'm thinking the cost would not be objectionable. The Pirates may well be a solid place for the Braves to do some shopping at some point.

I'm not in total love with Realmuto, but here is a young guy with no long term obligation that will come in relatively cheap. He's maybe primed for his best offensive seasons. No question he deepens the order.

Maybe you can get an extension done or maybe you just let it roll and hope Contreras is ready or you can just see where you are and go back to the bargain bin.

..........

Just looking at the landscape as of today, I'm not sure where else the Braves are getting the offensive bump. I think they obviously sign or trade for an OF or two. I think they maybe acquire an above average starter. and they'll shop in the mid tier reliever market, I think.

 

[nsacpi]

I don't expect Flowers/Suzuki to continue being a positive offensive platoon. I think they are really only positive now in comparison to other catching duos. They aren't a net positive to the offense necessarily.

I think that the Braves need to upgrade their offense one way or another if they want to be real contenders. Catcher is one place where there are options. There are maybe four options out there that might be available that could help the Braves offense. Realmuto, Grandal, Ramos, and Cervelli (lot of trade chatter).

In terms of acquisition cost, I would guess it would go Cervelli (11m plus non-elite prospect), Ramos, Realmuto, Grandal. I'm pretty reluctant to give up a significant draft pick to get Grandal. I think the Braves future is probably much more tied up in whoever they draft this season than whoever they would trade from their bank of existing prospects now and tying 18-20m up 4-5 years from now on an aging catcher seems like a bad long term strategy.

Ramos would not come with the draft penalty and might be cheaper and a shorter deal. I think though that he'll have several big market options after Grandal gets sorted out. So not sure where his market ends up.

Cervelli is possible available. If not now, then at the deadline when the Pirates are forced to admit they aren't in it. at 11m for one year, that's not really a significant burden and I'm thinking the cost would not be objectionable. The Pirates may well be a solid place for the Braves to do some shopping at some point.

I'm not in total love with Realmuto, but here is a young guy with no long term obligation that will come in relatively cheap. He's maybe primed for his best offensive seasons. No question he deepens the order.

Maybe you can get an extension done or maybe you just let it roll and hope Contreras is ready or you can just see where you are and go back to the bargain bin.

..........

Just looking at the landscape as of today, I'm not sure where else the Braves are getting the offensive bump. I think they obviously sign or trade for an OF or two. I think they maybe acquire an above average starter. and they'll shop in the mid tier reliever market, I think.

I would keep an eye on Cervelli as a mid-season move. Last year of his contract. Will depend on how the Pirates do in the first half.

Most cost effective way to improve the offense: replacing Flaherty (182 PAs in 2018, including 167 against righties against whom he put up a .601 OPS) with a competent backup infielder. But there is a whole thread about that.

 

[Enscheff]

Pitch framing is just one aspect of being a catcher. I don't have a feel for just how important it is, but the writing seems to suggest that in general most all boats have been lifted by the pitch framing revolution. We're probably talking about a couple of pitches a game. The difference in Grandal and Realmuto is probably not going to be a significant impact on the performance of the pitching staff. And Realmuto is actually better at traditional defensive metrics, I think, than Grandal. If I recall correctly, have not looked at it in last month.


But the issue is really all about acquisition cost and will be significant for both. 18-20m for 4-5 years, plus loss of a pretty high draft pick from Grandal. Realmuto will cost his arb figures, plus a known prospect or two.

Tough to really say what would be costlier. I kind of think the payroll hit 4-5 years down the road will be more significant. I don't like exposure to long term risk in payroll except on the very best gambles (like 26 year old superstars, for example).

On balance I'd probably prefer to give up prospects. Though I would prefer Grandal on the 2019 team, I believe.

Luckily for you, the framing stat tells us how valuable elite pitch framers are.

The best catchers gain their teams 15-20 runs per season, while the worst ones cost their teams about the same. A swing of 30-40 runs in a season is the equivalent of 3-4 wins, and is significant.

Suzuki cost the Braves 17 runs last year just from pitch framing. Grandal would have added 14 runs with his pitch framing. That's a difference of 31 runs...or about 3 wins.

The argument "we're talking about a couple pitches per game" is beyond flawed, and beginning to verge on laughably ignorant. It's as stupid as someone saying "the difference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter is 1 hit per week, so it's not a big deal".

Every improvement to every part of the roster is a very small improvement on a per game basis. Those small improvements add up to a few extra runs per month, which add up to a few extra wins per season.

 

[Enscheff]

Or as I like to put it bang for the buck. And I'm pretty much convinced Flower/Suzuki will give you a better bang to buck ratio than either Realmuto or Grandal. Of course, there are all sorts of scenarios that can depart from the most likely ones. But you make these kinds of decisions by appropriately weighting the range of outcomes.

Also in making these decisions you can't just focus on 2019. You have to take into account how you are affecting wins over a range of years by locking in a long term deal (in the case of Grandal) or dipping into the prospect pool (in the case of Realmuto).

Folks who preach "bang for the buck" always seem to forget the reality that concentrating WAR into single roster spots also carries significant value.

A roster full of league minimum 1 WAR players is excellent "bang for your buck", but isn't going to contend for anything.

The Braves need to produce 40-45 WAR from ~15 roster spots to be legit playoff contenders, and that isn't happening without adding a few impact players.

 

[nsacpi]

Folks who preach "bang for the buck" always seem to forget the reality that concentrating WAR into single roster spots also carries significant value.

A roster full of league minimum 1 WAR players is excellent "bang for your buck", but isn't going to contend for anything.

The Braves need to produce 40-45 WAR from ~15 roster spots to be legit playoff contenders, and that isn't happening without adding a few impact players.

I would spread out that 45M pretty widely. Between a corner outfielder, a quality backup infielder and a reliever with a track record of pitching high leverage innings. It would be nice to upgrade catcher too. But obviously there are tradeoffs. I think where you and I differ a bit is whether it would be better to go with status quo at catcher or status quo in the pen, if there had to be a choice between the two. If there has to be a choice I would bring back Suzuki and upgrade the pen (with someone like Robertson, Familia or Britton).

 

[clvclv]

I would keep an eye on Cervelli as a mid-season move. Last year of his contract. Will depend on how the Pirates do in the first half.

Most cost effective way to improve the offense: replacing Flaherty (182 PAs in 2018, including 167 against righties against whom he put up a .601 OPS) with a competent backup infielder. But there is a whole thread about that.

And what this all comes back to in the end is that the offensive upgrades have to come in the form of a corner OF and Catcher (and this one certainly may not be cost-effective). I think we'd all much prefer the more prudent cost-effective moves/trades/signings whenever possible, but the most optimal moves may not always be available for AA to make.

Trying to read between the lines a little here, I'm beginning to think that AA wants to improve the team this winter - and be even more competitive next season - but that he may feel like 2020 is when he's going to push all his chips in unless he can pull off a major (and I mean MAJOR) trade this winter. Think about it - with all this money to spend, he continuously tells the press that the fans are going to be disappointed if they're expecting the Braves to add ANY of the top-tier free-agents that are available. We "need" TOR help, but he said don't expect a Corbin signing. We "need" a corner OF upgrade, but don't expect him to be in on Harper. We "need" an offensive upgrade behind the plate, but the main focus there is on defense and framing. While we don't necessarily "need" an upgrade a SS, I can't imagine that Machado wouldn't be a substantial improvement for the team overall in the long run (even with his defensive limitations), yet he has no intention of going there either.

We haven't really looked further ahead other than with prospects, but the market's going to be full of options to fill the holes we would have in 2020 as well. TOR arms? Verlander, Cole, and Wheeler will be free-agents, and Arrieta and Darvish can opt-out after next season. Corner OFs? Khris Davis, Puig, Castellanos, and Ozuna will be free-agents after next season. Arenado and Rendon could be 3B options if they don't sign extensions. By the time next winter rolls around, we could be looking at Pache and Riley as bench options if they're not traded - and we could even see Ender traded to make room for Pache.

For this exercise, I'm going to rule Arenado and Rendon out since it's pretty clear that they seem to be comfortable that Riley or a combination of Riley and Camargo are the answer over there. I agree with those who think the acquisition cost for Realmuto is going to be too high, ESPECIALLY if you're looking at 2020 as the first year you expect to make a deep run with a real chance to win the whole shooting match - and he can walk following that season. The Catcher pool isn't particularly deep next offseason, so Grandal kinda has to become Target #1 this winter - he's a substantial upgrade (both offensively and defensively) and even if it costs a little more than you'd like to spend, Flow and Julio come off the books next winter to help pay for him and he's young enough that you should be able to pair him with Contreras as age becomes more of an issue.

Like a lot of folks I think a big trade may be coming that could seriously enhance our chances in 2019, but I'm beginning to like the idea of AA backing the truck up and unloading a bunch of prospects in Seattle rather than handing them to the Marlins where they could hurt us for years to come. Assuming they choose to rebuild (which I'm still not convinced they'll do), go get Paxton AND Haniger. The only prospects that I'd treat as "off-limits" (to what extent you can) would be Riley, one of Pache or Waters, and Contreras. Don't spend another dime on a free-agent this winter, and do what you can to extend Paxton. Someone else can do the chart machinations, but I'm guessing a Wright/Anderson/Pache/Wilson or Fried/Allard or Wentz plus a couple throw-ins offer might be enough? That would leave you with a rotation of Paxton, Folty, Newk, Gausman, Julio with Touki, Gohara, Soroka, and one or two of Wilson/Fried/Allard in Gwinnett. Newk, Gohara, and Fried or Wilson spend 2019 as SPs to see if one can take the needed step forward, and are shifted to the pen full-time for good if they don't as potential late-inning options.

That would give you Acuna, Albies, Freddie, Haniger, Grandal, Camargo/Riley, Ender, Swanson all controlled through 2021 (or longer) with the flexibility to replace Flowers with A-Jax/Contreras in 2020, Ender with Waters when he's ready, and Gausman, Julio, and Viz when their deals are up.

 

[Southcack77]

Luckily for you, the framing stat tells us how valuable elite pitch framers are.

The best catchers gain their teams 15-20 runs per season, while the worst ones cost their teams about the same. A swing of 30-40 runs in a season is the equivalent of 3-4 wins, and is significant.

Suzuki cost the Braves 17 runs last year just from pitch framing. Grandal would have added 14 runs with his pitch framing. That's a difference of 31 runs...or about 3 wins.

The argument "we're talking about a couple pitches per game" is beyond flawed, and beginning to verge on laughably ignorant. It's as stupid as someone saying "the difference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter is 1 hit per week, so it's not a big deal".

Every improvement to every part of the roster is a very small improvement on a per game basis. Those small improvements add up to a few extra runs per month, which add up to a few extra wins per season.

It’s just one part of being a catcher.

It’s not the alpha and omega of analysis.

And the difference in top and middle isn’t going to make or break a pitching staff anymore than mediocre blocking balls, or throwing out baserunners or hitting would.

Saying you wouldn’t take realmuto because you’re worried about him being mediocre pitch framer...not Justified by the numbers.

 

[Enscheff]

I would spread out that 45M pretty widely. Between a corner outfielder, a quality backup infielder and a reliever with a track record of pitching high leverage innings. It would be nice to upgrade catcher too. But obviously there are tradeoffs. I think where you and I differ a bit is whether it would be better to go with status quo at catcher or status quo in the pen, if there had to be a choice between the two. If there has to be a choice I would bring back Suzuki and upgrade the pen (with someone like Robertson, Familia or Britton).

We definitely differ there. I am firmly of the opinion that a team who spent the last 4 years acquiring every available male on the planet who can throw a baseball should not be investing any significant amount of resources on more pitchers when there are other glaring holes on the roster. They already added Gausman and O'Day for 2019. That should be more than enough resources spent there.

I can understand the viewpoint of prioritizing cOF over C, but I can't get on board with sacrificing production at those 2 spots to pour even more resources into the young pitching staff that projects to get better and better as guys progress and slot into their ultimate roles.

 

[Enscheff]

It’s just one part of being a catcher.

It’s not the alpha and omega of analysis.

And the difference in top and middle isn’t going to make or break a pitching staff anymore than mediocre blocking balls, or throwing out baserunners or hitting would.

Saying you wouldn’t take realmuto because you’re worried about him being mediocre pitch framer...not Justified by the numbers.

Not justified by the numbers? Do you even know what the numbers are?

The difference between Grandal's framing and Realmuto's framing was 29 runs in 2018...almost 3 wins...

You honestly think that difference is negligible? You think it is comparable to blocking runs saved? Do you even know how many runs are attributed to catchers blocking the ball, or throwing out runners?

There's a reason more intelligent teams aren't paying the Marlins asking price for Realmuto...

 

[50PoundHead]

The framing ability v. offense ability debate is an interesting one. There's risk/reward with almost every player, but it really becomes pertinent at the positions where defense is a premium (C, SS, CF).

 

[Southcack77]

Not justified by the numbers? Do you even know what the numbers are?

The difference between Grandal's framing and Realmuto's framing was 29 runs in 2018...almost 3 wins...

You honestly think that difference is negligible? You think it is comparable to blocking runs saved? Do you even know how many runs are attributed to catchers blocking the ball, or throwing out runners?

There's a reason more intelligent teams aren't paying the Marlins asking price for Realmuto...

This is an argument that doesn’t really follow.

The Marlins asked for Acuña from Atlanta and Robles and another big prospect from Nats if the reporting is correct.

You think either team would have traded that for Grandal?

You think Realmuto wouldn’t receive just a big a contract and be as big or bigger free agent if he were on open market this offseason?

Alao, in 2019 I said I’d prefer Grandal. Did you miss that completely? I think his offense is comparable and i’d give the nod to the top drawer framer.

My response was primarily directed at someone basically asking whether Realmuto was rosterable because of mediocre framing. But The pitching staff is not going to collapse - it didn’t with Suzuki— and he’s pretty clearly a good enough hitter to deepen the lineup, which the Braves need dearly.

But for me, i’m uninclined to forfeit an important draft pick and commit to overpay Grandal (arguably immediately) in 4-5 years when the Braves will be needing cash to handle final years of arb on key personnel.

Besides the Dodgers are going to bid the upper limit of what’s reasonable. Would not be wise to outbid them.

 

[UNCBlue012]

This group is full of smart dudes who happen to be babies.

 

[NYCBrave]

Everyone's favorite site FanGraphs just posted about Grandal and his horrible October.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yasmani-grandals-october-from-hell/

 

[TheRunningAgent]

Since we have Flowers and we have the possibility of Contreras coming up within 2 years, I could go for signing Lucroy for 1 or 2 years mostly for his defense. We need a good defensive catcher.

 

[Heyward]

Using our prospect currency to obtain a someone who plays <140 games a year is a terrible idea. Especially when there are quality options available to us already.

We don't have several easy outs. We were basically above average at every position offensively in 2018

Thats not all the way true.

Catcher was good but how much longer can you expect Zuk and Flowers to keep this up?
Freeman stud.
Albies after his hot start was very inconsistent.
Swanson was inconsistent with the bat but better this past year.
Camargo was good once he took over but is it a fluke or a trend?
Acuna was excellent and is primed for an MVP type year next season.
Ender was Ender.
Need someone to replace Nick.

The offense wasnt bad by any means but you need as many good bats possible, i'm all for upgrading catcher. Not sure why some are ok with a platoon with the rest of the offense has some question marks.

 

[Carp]

Thats not all the way true.

Catcher was good but how much longer can you expect Zuk and Flowers to keep this up?
Freeman stud.
Albies after his hot start was very inconsistent.
Swanson was inconsistent with the bat but better this past year.
Camargo was good once he took over but is it a fluke or a trend?
Acuna was excellent and is primed for an MVP type year next season.
Ender was Ender.
Need someone to replace Nick.

The offense wasnt bad by any means but you need as many good bats possible, i'm all for upgrading catcher. Not sure why some are ok with a platoon with the rest of the offense has some question marks.

How is it not true? Each position was above average offensively. That's a true statement.