2018 Offseason And Targets

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Enscheff said:
Agreed. Newk may not stick in the rotation, but he will make an impact out of the BP.

Gray’s price would have to be pretty low to make sense for the Braves.
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I still say no but the interesting part to me of that deal is Frazier

I think the braves need someone they can count on more than Frazier. He was a big time prospect but has not performed and has had major injuries.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I still say no but the interesting part to me of that deal is Frazier

I think the braves need someone they can count on more than Frazier. He was a big time prospect but has not performed and has had major injuries.
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Somewhat disagree to some degree on Frazier. He has less than 200 career PA and has been ok vs LHP. high K rate, but pretty decent power. Hasn't been much of a defender though.

I wouldn't necessarily look at him as a starter, but would be a pretty good complementary piece to someone like Brantley starting in platoon situation.

Whether Newcomb for Gray and Frazier is something the Yankees would do...I don't really think so. I don't have a strong feeling for the Braves end, but I don't see a big downside. Frazier would be a better bench bat than they've had recently with a legit possibility to become a regular. Gray might give you something like Newcomb did and you certainly have other options.

I think though that the folks that want to move Newcomb aren't really honest with themselves. They want to move him because they don't think he is good enough, but they seem to want to believe that they are going to get great value back for him. Something about that calculation doesn't seem very realistic.

Something like this is a bit more realistic, but I think the Yankees probably would still look to get something more useful to them out of Frazier.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I think this basically confirms my notion that the Mariners got less value than they could have because they overvalued Sheffield.
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Or they correctly valued Sheffield. None of these teams work off fangraphs prospects lists or MLB.com prospect lists. Teams are going to value prospects differently. This is why I think FV is worthless. At the end of the day what matter is how the players acquired produce, not how highly the prospects were ranked by "expert" websites.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Or they correctly valued Sheffield. None of these teams work off fangraphs prospects lists or MLB.com prospect lists. Teams are going to value prospects differently. This is why I think FV is worthless. At the end of the day what matter is how the players acquired produce, not how highly the prospects were ranked by "expert" websites.
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Its not just fangraphs. There is a general industry consensus that gives prospects a certain valuation window. The valuation will vary depending on what team you talk to, but usually it won't deviate too far from what the industry consensus is. If you want to consider the Paxton trade fair value, you have to value Sheffield significantly higher than the industry consensus. For the value to be even, Sheffield would have to be a top shelf 55 FV prospect. Someone along the lines of Mckenzie Gore.
 
Southcack77 said:
Somewhat disagree to some degree on Frazier. He has less than 200 career PA and has been ok vs LHP. high K rate, but pretty decent power. Hasn't been much of a defender though.

I wouldn't necessarily look at him as a starter, but would be a pretty good complementary piece to someone like Brantley starting in platoon situation.

Whether Newcomb for Gray and Frazier is something the Yankees would do...I don't really think so. I don't have a strong feeling for the Braves end, but I don't see a big downside. Frazier would be a better bench bat than they've had recently with a legit possibility to become a regular. Gray might give you something like Newcomb did and you certainly have other options.

I think though that the folks that want to move Newcomb aren't really honest with themselves. They want to move him because they don't think he is good enough, but they seem to want to believe that they are going to get great value back for him. Something about that calculation doesn't seem very realistic.

Something like this is a bit more realistic, but I think the Yankees probably would still look to get something more useful to them out of Frazier.
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Newcomb is really hard to put a value on. If you just go strictly by his Steamer projections and his cost/control, then he is quite valuable. But there is so much uncertainty surrounding him that its hard to trust him as a 2 win pitcher for 4+ years. I think he's probably one of those guys that some teams would value pretty highly and others wouldn't value at all. It'd just be a matter of finding the right team.

Personally, I don't think Newk is going anywhere. I think he'll be part of the rotation next year and the FO will continue to evaluate his future with the Braves.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Newcomb is really hard to put a value on. If you just go strictly by his Steamer projections and his cost/control, then he is quite valuable. But there is so much uncertainty surrounding him that its hard to trust him as a 2 win pitcher for 4+ years. I think he's probably one of those guys that some teams would value pretty highly and others wouldn't value at all. It'd just be a matter of finding the right team.

Personally, I don't think Newk is going anywhere. I think he'll be part of the rotation next year and the FO will continue to evaluate his future with the Braves.
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I'm fine with him staying, but I think the Braves moves today might argue for seeing what you can do to upgrade the rotation in the short term.

I actually don't understand why so many were so anxious to deal him. He's super cheap for awhile yet and put up a bordering all star half season as a lefty. I'm willing to let that continue to play out.
 
After the Donaldson signing, I expect us to see a trade or two in the next month or so to acquire a cOF at least. Its possible that we'll try to add pitching of some sort as well.

After today, our projected payroll stands at 117 million. I think, at most, we have 13-18 million more that we can spend. That number may be closer to 10 million. I kind of imagine we will look to shed a bit of salary by trading guys like Teheran or O'day. I'm not sure we currently have enough money to comfortably operate the rest of the offseason unless we unload some of these guys. We may have to attach a prospect in order to accomplish that.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'm fine with him staying, but I think the Braves moves today might argue for seeing what you can do to upgrade the rotation in the short term.

I actually don't understand why so many were so anxious to deal him. He's super cheap for awhile yet and put up a bordering all star half season as a lefty. I'm willing to let that continue to play out.
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Because if some club out there thinks he's more valuable than we do internally enough that they're going to give us a nice haul it's a no-brainer.
 
Ronald Rump said:
Because if some club out there thinks he's more valuable than we do internally enough that they're going to give us a nice haul it's a no-brainer.
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Maybe some team would give up a haul for Dansby Swanson.

Shrug. I'd be down for that.

Just no real reason to particularly think anyone out there is pining for Newcomb at this point. If Braves fanatics don't like him, it's unclear why front offices would be in love.
 
Southcack77 said:
Maybe some team would give up a haul for Dansby Swanson.

Shrug. I'd be down for that.

Just no real reason to particularly think anyone out there is pining for Newcomb at this point. If Braves fanatics don't like him, it's unclear why front offices would be in love.
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Someone took Shelby Miller off our hands?

We dealt a player who has accumulated over 13 WAR in 3 years since leaving the team for two bum pitchers and a bum SS.

Mistakes happen all the time.
 
CrazyTrain said:
Someone took Shelby Miller off our hands?

We dealt a player who has accumulated over 13 WAR in 3 years since leaving the team for two bum pitchers and a bum SS.

Mistakes happen all the time.
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I mean sh*t man. someone can always do something stupid.

No one ever said you shouldn't be willing to move someone if someone makes you the right offer.

But expecting it isn't very realistic. I do think perhaps you could use Newcomb in a trade with a team that is retooling rather than rebuilding as part of a package. But I wouldn't really count on some team thinking he's a top drawer prospect.
 
CrazyTrain said:
Someone took Shelby Miller off our hands?

We dealt a player who has accumulated over 13 WAR in 3 years since leaving the team for two bum pitchers and a bum SS.

Mistakes happen all the time.
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One bum pitcher, our starting center fielder who's very good and one of the better defensive shortstops in the game who is still young enough to improve offensively... you know, without a wrist injury.... may wanna rethink that one.
 
zbhargrove said:
That being said, I think Swanson is traded now
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I don't. Why would he be? We don't have the resources to obviously fill that hole, unless you think Camargo or Culberson is capable of filling SS for a full season. And if we did that, we would go into next season with even less offensive depth that we have now. This Donaldson deal gave us a lot of bench depth that we desperately needed. Trading away Swanson would completely nullify that benefit.

Also, we'd be selling super low on Swanson. Swanson is a perfectly acceptable SS for us while he is still making basically league minimum. We'll roll with him another season and hope he shows some improvements offensively. If he could even get to the point to where he was putting up a .700-.725 OPS, he'd be a pretty valuable piece with his defense.
 
Now that we have added BMac and Donaldson, i'm starting to wonder if a reunion with Markakis is more likely....he would be a cheap option to bring back in RF, and you can go after rotation/bullpen options...

Inciarte CF
Acuna LF
Freeman 1B
Donaldson 3B
Markakis RF
Albies 2B
BMac/Flowers C
Swanson SS

Bench:
Culberson
Camargo
Flowers/BMac

If you DFA Duvall (~$3m), DFA Freeman (~$1.5m) Trade Teheran (~$11m), Trade O'Day (~$9m) - not saying that by trading Teheran and O'Day we would save $20m....but maybe half?
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Now that we have added BMac and Donaldson, i'm starting to wonder if a reunion with Markakis is more likely....he would be a cheap option to bring back in RF, and you can go after rotation/bullpen options...

Inciarte CF
Acuna LF
Freeman 1B
Donaldson 3B
Markakis RF
Albies 2B
BMac/Flowers C
Swanson SS

Bench:
Culberson
Camargo
Flowers/BMac

If you DFA Duvall (~$3m), DFA Freeman (~$1.5m) Trade Teheran (~$11m), Trade O'Day (~$9m) - not saying that by trading Teheran and O'Day we would save $20m....but maybe half?
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You could always wait on the market to shaft Markakis and try to bring him back cheap if the other cOF targets don't fall into your range.

I think Markakis is going to have a rough time of it.
 
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