Braves sign Donaldson, 1 yr 23 million deal.

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Riley in the of makes sense. He’s an option if we get a long term injury or need a call up for a stretch run or playoffs.

He’s going to all about the bat and in that bat his slugging and walks. But positional flexibility won’t hurt.
 
I like the fact that we'll probably be keeping Riley in AAA for at least the first half. Let him try out a new position and continue to develop his bat. Maybe later in the year he can provide an above average bat on the bench.
 
striker42 said:
What I don't get are people who want to trade Newk but aquire Bumgarner. There's a very good chance Newk out pitches Bumgarner next year.
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I don't think anyone disagrees with that - including the folks who would be in favor of trading Newk if it led to a corner OF upgrade. It isn't about preferring Bumgarner over him. If you made a Fried/Allard for Bumgarner deal, it wouldn't be for him to front the regular season rotation. I'd expect that would still set up Folty, Gausman, Newk, Teheran, Bumgarner or maybe Folty, Newk, Gausman, Bumgarner, Teheran. Using him as the #4 or #5 starter would reduce the number of starts he makes and help to keep him fresher, while also not matching him up against other teams' #1 or #2 SPs all the time.

2019 may well be Bumgarner's "last stand". The hope is that (as you mention) he's a slightly above-average SP during the regular season and that you catch lightning in a bottle with him in a couple of playoff starts. Trading Fried and Allard for him would be completely about getting something for two guys who apparently don't fit anywhere in the organization's plans while they still have value. 25-30 average to above-average starts from Bumgarner would be more than you expect to get from Fried or Allard in 2019, and the draft pick that you'd get from attaching a QO to him next winter would hopefully bring you an arm that's several years away that you might have use for at some point down the road.

It's completely about what the plan for Fried and Allard is - at this point it's almost impossible to see either of them as more than depth for the Braves. When listing the order of Pitchers you realistically expect to factor in the regular rotation in 2019 and 2020, they come in at #11 and #12 - Folty, Gausman, Newk, Julio, Touki, Soroka, Gohara, Wright, Anderson, Wilson, Fried, and Allard. As of today, there's not even room for both of them in Gwinnett's rotation unless you use a 6-man rotation there in 2019. I'm all for shifting Fried to the pen (Allard doesn't have the stuff), but if people are serious about wanting to keep Freeman and pay him an extra million dollars to be less effective, he doesn't even fit in there (#10) since he'd be behind Viz, Minter, O'Day, Venters, Winkler, Biddle, Carle, Freeman, and Sobotka - and that's if they don't add any more arms (which AA still says he'd like to do). That all assumes Weigel and others (Graham, Burrows, Dayton?) don't factor in at all.
 
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Don’t be shocked at this: Riley goes to the outfield at Gwinnett and we sign Markakis for one year. That also frees us up to make a bigger splash for a starting pitcher and maybe Kimbrel.
 
TheRunningAgent said:
Don’t be shocked at this: Riley goes to the outfield at Gwinnett and we sign Markakis for one year. That also frees us up to make a bigger splash for a starting pitcher and maybe Kimbrel.
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Are you thinking we ride neck for the first 2 months then Riley as his platoon partner.

If that is the case then I would still rather have Peralta and have Riley ready in case Ender shows he still can’t hit lefties.
 
zbhargrove said:
Dude look at the trends... he's not the MadBum you're thinking of... all of the peripheral trends are going the wrong way and fast...
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I'm going to take the other end of that one in a way.

Careers zig and zag. they don't always follow straight lines, particularly when injury is involved.

Bumgarner is 29. His velocity has not dipped. I wonder if he has lost some movement on the fastball as a result of the injuries as its effectiveness has diminished. If so and he is healthy, then that's a pitch with a decent chance of rallying and drastically changing his profile.

I would say if you can buy low on him, it's a really good fit. I wouldn't really be looking at him to replace Newcomb. I don't see the sense in that. I'd be looking more at him bumping Teheran or Anibal Sanchez.

If he pitches like last season you are fine. If he fulfills the non-zero chance of his reverting to form with health you hit the jackpot. now you have a #2 or #3 starter that you know isn't bothered by the moment.

But he would not be a huge priority for me. Check into him. If it makes sense do it.

But I do not think I would trade Newcomb for one year of him unless there was more coming back.

The Giant whose name has made a little sense to me for awhile is Brandon Crawford. He's no great hitter, but he's basically Dansby's best case with the bat without giving away defense.
 
Southcack77 said:
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Bumgarner is 29. His velocity has not dipped.
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I see these numbers on fangraphs

vFA

2014 92.8
2015 93.0
2016 91.7
2017 91.4
2018 91.4

It hasn't been a yuge dip, but he has lost something. And that something has translated to a significant drop in the effectiveness of that particular pitch.
 
clvclv said:
I don't think anyone disagrees with that - including the folks who would be in favor of trading Newk if it led to a corner OF upgrade. It isn't about preferring Bumgarner over him. If you made a Fried/Allard for Bumgarner deal, it wouldn't be for him to front the regular season rotation. I'd expect that would still set up Folty, Gausman, Newk, Teheran, Bumgarner or maybe Folty, Newk, Gausman, Bumgarner, Teheran. Using him as the #4 or #5 starter would reduce the number of starts he makes and help to keep him fresher, while also not matching him up against other teams' #1 or #2 SPs all the time.

2019 may well be Bumgarner's "last stand". The hope is that (as you mention) he's a slightly above-average SP during the regular season and that you catch lightning in a bottle with him in a couple of playoff starts. Trading Fried and Allard for him would be completely about getting something for two guys who apparently don't fit anywhere in the organization's plans while they still have value. 25-30 average to above-average starts from Bumgarner would be more than you expect to get from Fried or Allard in 2019, and the draft pick that you'd get from attaching a QO to him next winter would hopefully bring you an arm that's several years away that you might have use for at some point down the road.

It's completely about what the plan for Fried and Allard is - at this point it's almost impossible to see either of them as more than depth for the Braves. When listing the order of Pitchers you realistically expect to factor in the regular rotation in 2019 and 2020, they come in at #11 and #12 - Folty, Gausman, Newk, Julio, Touki, Soroka, Gohara, Wright, Anderson, Wilson, Fried, and Allard. As of today, there's not even room for both of them in Gwinnett's rotation unless you use a 6-man rotation there in 2019. I'm all for shifting Fried to the pen (Allard doesn't have the stuff), but if people are serious about wanting to keep Freeman and pay him an extra million dollars to be less effective, he doesn't even fit in there (#10) since he'd be behind Viz, Minter, O'Day, Venters, Winkler, Biddle, Carle, Freeman, and Sobotka - and that's if they don't add any more arms (which AA still says he'd like to do). That all assumes Weigel and others (Graham, Burrows, Dayton?) don't factor in at all.
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I just don't see the point in taking on the money of Bumgarner when the best we can really hope for is a fairly average pitcher. He'd probably project as our number 4 starter. I think the money could be better spent elsewhere.
 
TheRunningAgent said:
Don’t be shocked at this: Riley goes to the outfield at Gwinnett and we sign Markakis for one year. That also frees us up to make a bigger splash for a starting pitcher and maybe Kimbrel.
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Kimbrel isnt gonna happen given AA's comments about closer, and i have to think AA has a better plan for the OF spot than Nick/Riley platoon.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'm going to take the other end of that one in a way.

Careers zig and zag. they don't always follow straight lines, particularly when injury is involved.

Bumgarner is 29. His velocity has not dipped. I wonder if he has lost some movement on the fastball as a result of the injuries as its effectiveness has diminished. If so and he is healthy, then that's a pitch with a decent chance of rallying and drastically changing his profile.

I would say if you can buy low on him, it's a really good fit. I wouldn't really be looking at him to replace Newcomb. I don't see the sense in that. I'd be looking more at him bumping Teheran or Anibal Sanchez.

If he pitches like last season you are fine. If he fulfills the non-zero chance of his reverting to form with health you hit the jackpot. now you have a #2 or #3 starter that you know isn't bothered by the moment.

But he would not be a huge priority for me. Check into him. If it makes sense do it.

But I do not think I would trade Newcomb for one year of him unless there was more coming back.

The Giant whose name has made a little sense to me for awhile is Brandon Crawford. He's no great hitter, but he's basically Dansby's best case with the bat without giving away defense.
Click to expand...

His velocity certainly has dipped
 
nsacpi said:
I see these numbers on fangraphs

vFA

2014 92.8
2015 93.0
2016 91.7
2017 91.4
2018 91.4

It hasn't been a yuge dip, but he has lost something. And that something has translated to a significant drop in the effectiveness of that particular pitch.
Click to expand...


It has definitely dipped from what it was in 2015. That's true. And his four seamer effectiveness dropped when he went from 93 to 91 as you would expect.

But he was a 5 WAR guy with a career high K rate in 2016 throwing essentially the same heat as he did last year. Was one of the best years of his career. I just speculating that it's a movement issue on the fastball and maybe the secondaries more than velocity. He's definitely gone away from it at the years moved on.

Injury has definitely been a factor the last two seasons.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Are you thinking we ride neck for the first 2 months then Riley as his platoon partner.

If that is the case then I would still rather have Peralta and have Riley ready in case Ender shows he still can’t hit lefties.
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Not a platoon. If Riley is the guy, he takes over and Nick is there for a backup. Possibly deal him at the deadline. Again, I’m not advocating this. Just looking at possibilities. If it were me, I would deal Ender and 2 of the prospect pitchers for Kluber and sign Brantley and McCutcheon.
 
Southcack77 said:
It has definitely dipped from what it was in 2015. That's true. And his four seamer effectiveness dropped when he went from 93 to 91 as you would expect.

But he was a 5 WAR guy with a career high K rate in 2016 throwing essentially the same heat as he did last year. Was one of the best years of his career. I just speculating that it's a movement issue on the fastball and maybe the secondaries more than velocity. He's definitely gone away from it at the years moved on.

Injury has definitely been a factor the last two seasons.
Click to expand...

what would you expect out of him in 2019
 
striker42 said:
What I don't get are people who want to trade Newk but aquire Bumgarner. There's a very good chance Newk out pitches Bumgarner next year.
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There's almost a zero % chance Newk out pitches Bumgarner next year. I don't understand how people think Newk is a good pitcher. His control is awful.
 
striker42 said:
I just don't see the point in taking on the money of Bumgarner when the best we can really hope for is a fairly average pitcher. He'd probably project as our number 4 starter. I think the money could be better spent elsewhere.
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Which is perfectly inderstandable - just don't complain about having missed a chance to squeeze some value out of Fried and Allard when they're still wasting away a couple years from now as AAAA arms in Gwinnett. That's what you keep guys like Wes Parsons around for.

The only reason I mentioned it is as a way to possibly get something for two guys it doesn't appear the Braves will otherwise. Sure, they might be used in in other trades, but what are those trades going to be? AA told Morosi last night that they're not interested in trading multiple high-upside arms for an Ace right now even though the Indians' guys appear to be available. If he's not going after one of them, at what point does he actually look to upgrade the front of the rotation?
 
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