2018 Offseason And Targets

Status
Not open for further replies.
Another corner OF target that I find interesting is Nomar Mazara, and he's reportedly available. He's arbitration eligible for the first time this year with 3 years of control. Thus far, he's underperformed his pedigree, but there's some upside left (he's 23). As a LHH with platoon splits, he fits our roster well since we're in a position to siphon off ABs against LHP to Duvall and Camargo. Below average in defensive metrics, but I'm bullish on the Braves being able to influence this a bit with their defensive positioning metrics. His numbers dropped off in the second half last year due to a hand injury.

He's no slam dunk to be a long-term regular, but the acquisition cost should reflect that. I believe strongly that we'll trade MLB / MLB-ready pitching this offseason, and Mazara may be attainable in the Allard / Weigel tier versus going into the Soroka / Wright tier.
 
Braves1976 said:
I am not interested in Kepler or Kemp.

Why trade for a .720-.737 OPS player like Kepler when even Markakis etc can give you that?
Click to expand...

Because that's not who he is? He had a ridiculous .236 BABIP last year while substantially improving his BB and K rates... (~3.5 and ~4.5 % respectively) as a 25 year old while still accumulating 2.6 WAR... if you can't see why that's not valuable, I can't help you.

To go further, in Markakis' best year with us (last year... one he will likely not come close to producing ever again) he gave us 2.6 WAR... I'll take the guy with the signs pointing in the right direction instead of Markakis who's pointed in the clear wrong direction.
 
Last edited:
Braves1976 said:
Kemp went to the world series with the Dodgers. So while I do not want him back you cannot say they didn't make it work with him. Tucker is also terrible defensively but we made it work with him prior to Acuna taking over.
Click to expand...

You're right, I misspoke.

These are not viable OF solutions for a contending team projected for 85-90 wins, a $120M payroll, and a current OF mix that consists of 2 real MLB players.
 
zbhargrove said:
Because that's not who he is? He had a ridiculous .236 BABIP last year while substantially improving his BB and K rates... (~3.5 and ~4.5 % respectively) as a 25 year old while still accumulating 2.6 WAR... if you can't see why that's not valuable, I can't help you.

To go further, in Markakis' best year with us (last year... one he will likely not come close to producing ever again) he gave us 2.6 WAR... I'll take the guy with the signs pointing in the right direction instead of Markakis who's pointed in the clear wrong direction.
Click to expand...

He has never topped a .737 ops and had a .720 ops last year. i am looking at options that hit righties at over an .800 ops for the outfield.
 
dak said:
Another corner OF target that I find interesting is Nomar Mazara, and he's reportedly available. He's arbitration eligible for the first time this year with 3 years of control. Thus far, he's underperformed his pedigree, but there's some upside left (he's 23). As a LHH with platoon splits, he fits our roster well since we're in a position to siphon off ABs against LHP to Duvall and Camargo. Below average in defensive metrics, but I'm bullish on the Braves being able to influence this a bit with their defensive positioning metrics. His numbers dropped off in the second half last year due to a hand injury.

He's no slam dunk to be a long-term regular, but the acquisition cost should reflect that. I believe strongly that we'll trade MLB / MLB-ready pitching this offseason, and Mazara may be attainable in the Allard / Weigel tier versus going into the Soroka / Wright tier.
Click to expand...

i would consider Mazara if he came cheap enough in a trade, though only if the others on my list didn't work out.
 
zbhargrove said:
Because that's not who he is? He had a ridiculous .236 BABIP last year while substantially improving his BB and K rates... (~3.5 and ~4.5 % respectively) as a 25 year old while still accumulating 2.6 WAR... if you can't see why that's not valuable, I can't help you.

To go further, in Markakis' best year with us (last year... one he will likely not come close to producing ever again) he gave us 2.6 WAR... I'll take the guy with the signs pointing in the right direction instead of Markakis who's pointed in the clear wrong direction.
Click to expand...

1600 PA and you’re asking for BABIP correction to get him above average at the plate for the first time in his career.

WAR fueled by career numbers on defense that seem like potential outlier.

That sounds like a contender’s move?

Second thought: if he’s so high upside why are the twins trading him arb1 with four years of control?
 
If the price is really near zero, Jose Martinez is a legitimate bat off the bench.

I’d prefer him to someone like Duda in that role.

Absent a permanent fix In cOF could live with his splitting bad defense in LF and occasionally at first.
 
Southcack77 said:
1600 PA and you’re asking for BABIP correction to get him above average at the plate for the first time in his career.

WAR fueled by career numbers on defense that seem like potential outlier.

That sounds like a contender’s move?

Second thought: if he’s so high upside why are the twins trading him arb1 with four years of control?
Click to expand...

there is a potential match in that the Twins need pitching and likely would have interest in young cost controlled starting pitchers
 
Braves1976 said:
i would consider Mazara if he came cheap enough in a trade, though only if the others on my list didn't work out.
Click to expand...

Let’s face it: this is the misfit toys section of the offseason. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to this.

But if they want to piece together some platoon pieces or pair Markakis with a flyer on OF upside play or even Camargo I can be on board. Just have to assure me they are ready to spend money productively elsewhere or make move if it’s not working.
 
Southcack77 said:
1600 PA and you’re asking for BABIP correction to get him above average at the plate for the first time in his career.

WAR fueled by career numbers on defense that seem like potential outlier.

That sounds like a contender’s move?

Second thought: if he’s so high upside why are the twins trading him arb1 with four years of control?
Click to expand...

Because the Twins suck, have OF options, and are desperately in need of pitching.
 
clvclv said:
Because the Twins suck, have OF options, and are desperately in need of pitching.
Click to expand...

We should definitely get players who are below average offensively from the team that sucks because that’s the best use of limited prospect resources.

Why not trade for someone who is actually above average at the plate for the second most offensive minded position on the field?
 
Southcack77 said:
They've only spent 25m.

Some conservative estimates would probably have them with another 25m to spend.

I think that would put them in the 120-125 range, which would line up pretty well with past payrolls and the finances.
Click to expand...

But didn't AA get an additional 20 mil in meeting with Liberty executives that took him away from WMs? I never saw an "official" report on it, but it was discussed on this board.
 
Southcack77 said:
1600 PA and you’re asking for BABIP correction to get him above average at the plate for the first time in his career.

WAR fueled by career numbers on defense that seem like potential outlier.

That sounds like a contender’s move?

Second thought: if he’s so high upside why are the twins trading him arb1 with four years of control?
Click to expand...

Are you somehow suggesting a .236 BABIP isn’t due for some serious positive regression? Or are you trying to say his improvements in both BB and K rates as a 25 year old aren’t significant? I think most people agree it is, which is why his projections call for a slash of .254/.336/.443 and nearly 3 WAR in 2019.

If the Twins are really willing to deal Kepler for some of the Braves MLB ready pitching, I see no reason he can’t be an option. Is he the top choice? Probably not, but if the value is there and the Twins really are looking to cash him in, he could certainly be near the top of the list.

I can certainly envision several scenarios where I prefer a Kepler trade to most of the FA options still available.
 
Last edited:
Enscheff said:
Are you somehow suggesting a .236 BABIP isn’t due for some serious positive regression? Or are you trying to say his improvements in both BB and K rates as a 25 year old aren’t significant? I think most people agree it is, which is why his projections call for a slash of .254/.336/.443 and nearly 3 WAR in 2019.

If the Twins are really willing to deal Kepler for some of the Braves MLB ready pitching, I see no reason he can’t be an option. Is he the top choice? Probably not, but if the value is there and the Twins really are looking to cash him in, he could certainly be near the top of the list.

I can certainly envision several scenarios where I prefer a Kepler trade to most of the FA options still available.
Click to expand...


Steamer is giving him his BABIP bump and projecting a 110 wRC+.

Outside of the decrease in Ks and smaller increase of BBs this year, there isn't much exciting going on with his peripherals.

ISO, wOBA, wRC+ staying remarkably consistently.

Nothing remarkable about his launch angle, exit velocity, or hard hit rates. He's shown some increases there, but it's still somewhat middling.

.......

For all that, if that's the move it is what it is. It probably is preferable to giving at bats to Adam Duvall. You'd like a contender to be adding something more proven offensively in a corner. It's odd to be in the position of taking flyers on post hype sleepers when you are a defending division champion.
 
Braves1976 said:
He has never topped a .737 ops and had a .720 ops last year. i am looking at options that hit righties at over an .800 ops for the outfield.
Click to expand...

Well, I mean he's 25 so let's not act like we've seen a finished product here... especially when you see a clear signal like a ridiculously low BABIP and K/BB rates improved that significantly.
 
If the Padres trade one of Reyes or Renfroe, I'd look at one of them for the right price too. Earlier this off-season MLBTR reported: "Out of the Padres’ current group of outfielders, Cassavell classifies Wil Myers, Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes as trade candidates, adding that one of the latter two is likeliest to end up on the move. As right-handed sluggers with defensive limitations, Renfroe and Reyes offer similar skill sets, observes Cassavell, who notes that dealing one of the two would enable San Diego to move Myers from third base back to the outfield."
 
Southcack77 said:
1600 PA and you’re asking for BABIP correction to get him above average at the plate for the first time in his career.

WAR fueled by career numbers on defense that seem like potential outlier.

That sounds like a contender’s move?

Second thought: if he’s so high upside why are the twins trading him arb1 with four years of control?
Click to expand...

dude... a .236 BABIP... we're not talking some simple regression... wake up. Improving percentages like that is not something that's just smoke and mirrors.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top